Nba Should I Bet Moneyline Or Spread

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Should You Bet Small NBA Road Dogs on the Spread or Moneyline?
A few weeks ago, we published an article on ESPN.com that detailed why bettors should be taking small road dogs on the moneyline instead of the spread. The system detailed in the article focused on road dogs of 6.5 or less that received less than 40% of spread bets. One of the main reasons we chose to focus on this range was because +7 is one of the most important key numbers for NFL bettors. In fact, since 2003 our research indicates that 9.55% of all games finish with a 7-point margin of victory — the second most common margin.
Further research revealed that when we narrow our spread percentage range to focus on teams receiving less than 30% of public bets, the number of system matches dropped significantly, however, the return on investment (ROI) more than doubled on both the spread and moneyline.
With this system in the back of our minds, we wanted to see whether it would be wise to bet other small road dogs on the moneyline instead of the spread — specifically in the NBA. To accomplish this, we decided to build two new systems using our Bet Labs software.
After adjusting the season type to include both regular season and playoff games, we utilized the “home/visitor” filter to focus solely on road teams. This game us an immediate edge as road teams have gone 6244-6018 ATS since the start of the 2003-04 season. Although this was not enough to overcome the typical -110 juice at most sportsbooks, it gave our system a terrific starting point. As you can see from the screenshot below, road teams are also undervalued on the moneyline although the -2.3% ROI was worse than the -0.4% ROI in our spread system.
Once we had narrowed our focus to road teams, the next step was layering on the “spread %” filter to focus on teams receiving no more than 30% of spread bets. This betting against the pubic philosophy has proven to be one of the simplest, yet consistently profitable betting strategies over the past decade. In fact, the addition of this one simple filter led to immense improvements for both of our systems.
For our spread system, road teams receiving no more than 30% of public bets have gone 429-353 (54.9%) with +55.71 units won and a 7.1% ROI. However, our expectation was that the moneyline system would be far less profitable as most sportsbooks increase the juice for large moneyline underdogs, thus sucking out much of the value. This hypothesis was quickly disproven.
Road teams receiving between 0 and 30% of spread bets have gone just 216-583 which equates to a winning percentage of just 27%. Despite this paltry win rate, the actual units won (+59.13) and ROI (7.4%) are almost identical to our spread system.
It should be noted that the concept of “key numbers” doesn’t exist in basketball to the extent that it does in football. In the NFL, sportsbooks will do everything they can to avoid moving off 3 or 7. In the NBA, oddsmakers will almost always adjust their numbers if the market warrants it.
One of the things that can make NBA betting so frustrating at times is that late-game fouling consistently leads to backdoor covers. Teams frequently come back from two-possession deficits (4-6 points) in the final minute, whereas teams will often times give up if they’re trailing by three or more possessions (7+ points). Since our goal is to create a winning moneyline system, we wanted to focus on underdogs of 6 or less.
To accomplish this, our final step was to utilize the “spread range” filter to focus on all road teams between a pick ’em and +6. The hypothesis was that betting these small visiting underdogs on the moneyline would be more profitable than taking them on the spread.
Although these moneyline dogs win less frequently, the fact that you’re getting them between -105 and +250 would compensate for the rare occasion that a team covers the spread but loses straight up. In fact, at +250 you would only need to win 28.57% of your bets to break even.
While the addition of this spread range filter substantially increased the return on investment for our moneyline system, we were shocked by the results for the spread system. The table below displays how road teams between 0 and +6 have performed since 2003.
As you can see, the results for these systems are almost identical regardless of whether you’re betting on the moneyline or spread. Both systems have a large sample size, consistent year-to-year results, and a solid driving hypothesis which are the three main criteria for a winning betting system.
Based on our past NFL research, we thought that it would be more profitable to bet small road dogs on the moneyline than on the spread. Although that did not turn out to be the case, we did determine that small road dogs are greatly undervalued in the NBA.
We were surprised to see these systems post identical returns, but we feel comfortable recommending either one to bettors. It should also be noted that it’s slightly more profitable to bet teams between +5 and +6 on the moneyline and teams between 0 and +4.5 on the spread.
Anybody interested in creating their own winning NBA betting systems can sign up for a 6-day Bet Labs trial, but Sportsbook Insider Pro customers have full access to our Best Bets and Bet Signals along with real-time odds, public betting trends and much more.
We have also introduced a new free NBA odds page where bettors can access odds, injuries, futures and other valuable information. Current Bet Labs customers can also copy the moneyline system or spread system from the Think Tank to receive all current game matches via e-mail or text message.
Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.
12/18/14 Update: This system has gone 2-3 this season on both the moneyline and spread, however, the spread system is down -1.05 units while the moneyline system is up +0.73 units.
David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.
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BREAKING NEWS: Landmark Supreme Court Decision Says States Can Allow Sports Betting
On September 5, 2019, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will take the field against Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago Bears to kick off the 2019-20 NFL season. By the time they do, sports bettors will have put down millions of dollars worth of bets on the game.
Want to get in on the action? If so, you’ll need to decide which of the two teams you want to bet on. You’ll also need to decide if you want to place a moneyline bet or a point spread bet.
Before deciding on moneyline vs spread betting, you should make sure that you know the difference between the two. Here is what you need to know about moneyline bets and point spread bets.
Moneyline betting is very easy to understand. When you place a money line bet, the only thing you’ll need to do is pick a team that you think is going to win a game outright.
If you were to place a money line bet on the aforementioned Packers/Bears game, you would need to place it on either Green Bay or Chicago. You would also need to check out the odds for a moneyline bet before making it.
As of right now, the moneyline odds for the Packers/Bears game are:
This means that, if you were to bet $100 on the Packers on the moneyline, you would win $150 if Green Bay wins the game. However, if you were to bet the Bears on the moneyline, you would need to put down $180 to win $100 back if Chicago wins the game.
Spread betting is slightly more complicated than moneyline betting. But it’s not that hard to figure out.
When you place a spread bet, you’ll need the team that you bet on to “cover the spread” that was created for the game in order for you to win.
Let’s use the Packers/Bears game as an example again. As of right now, the point spread for the game is:
If you place a spread bet on the Packers, you would need them to either win the game outright or cover the spread by losing by less than 3.5 points. If, on the other hand, you place a spread bet on the Bears, you would need them to win by more than 3.5 points to cover the spread.
In both instances, a $110 bet would net you $100 if your team covers the spread, regardless of which team you choose to take.
There are pros and cons that come along with both moneyline and spread betting.
Those who prefer putting down moneyline bets love the fact that they don’t have to worry about keeping an eye on the point spread when they’re watching a game. They only have to worry about whether or not their team wins.
But as you can see, one of the downsides of moneyline betting is that those who bet on a favorite often have to lay down more money than they would have to when using spread betting. And those who bet on an underdog don’t have the benefit of “getting” points during a game.
Those who prefer putting down spread bets, meanwhile, love the fact that they get more balanced betting odds that don’t force them to lay down more money than they want to. They also “get” points on underdogs and can win a bet even if the team they pick loses.
But one of the big drawbacks of spread betting is that a favorite can win a game outright but not cover the spread in the process. This can leave some bettors kicking themselves when they realize they would have won if they had just made a moneyline bet.
It’s up to you to decide which type of bet you like best. Many bettors switch up their approach based on the odds offered on specific moneyline vs spread bets.
If you don’t have a ton of betting experience, you might want to experiment with both moneyline and spread bets. You’ll be able to see which one you prefer.
Your opinion on moneyline vs spread betting may change over time, too. You’re free to switch things up and use whichever type of bet you want depending on what the betting odds are for different games.
Regardless of which type of bet you choose, we can help you make smarter bets when you sign up to receive our picks. Get in touch with us today to learn about the benefits of signing up for our NFL picks package.
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