National Championship Point Spread

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National Championship Point Spread

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CBS Sports Staff

Jan 13, 2020

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12:22 pm ET 3 min read

By

Bud Elliott

Alabama inks top-rated recruiting class of all-time

Bud Elliott
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College football recruiting rankings 2021

Chip Patterson
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2021 National Signing Day winners and losers

Bud Elliott
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Touted safety Terrion Arnold picks Alabama

David Cobb
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Four-star DT Malone commits to Ole Miss

Ben Kercheval
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Four-star RB Johnson picks Texas A&M

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The Clemson Tigers aim for their second straight national championship when they take on the LSU Tigers in the 2020 College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. The ACC-champion Tigers (14-0) seek their third national title in the past five seasons, while a win would also give them back-to-back undefeated campaigns. They are tied with Alabama with four College Football Playoff appearances.
On the opposite sideline, LSU (14-0) leads the country in scoring and has produced 50 points six times this season. The top-seeded Tigers are in search of their first national title since 2007. LSU is a 5.5-point favorite and the over-under for total points scored is 68 in the latest Clemson vs. LSU odds after opening at 69. Before making any LSU vs. Clemson picks and 2020 National Championship predictions of your own, make sure you hear what SportsLine expert Emory Hunt has to say .
Hunt is enjoying an incomparable 2019 college football season for SportsLine members. He has posted a record of 107-69 on his college football against-the-spread picks, returning a whopping $3,178 to $100 bettors. A former Division I running back, he knows the game from a playing and coaching perspective. Hunt founded Football Gameplan in 2007 and has been producing high-level analysis ever since.
SportsLine's top college football analyst also has had a keen sense for the trajectories of these programs, posting a 10-5 record on college football picks against-the-spread in games involving Clemson or LSU over the past two seasons. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, Hunt has zeroed in on the 2020 College Football Playoff National Championship from every angle and released another confident point-spread selection that he's sharing over at SportsLine. Go see the pick now . Here are the college football lines and trends for Clemson vs. LSU:
Versatile running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire was listed as doubtful for the Peach Bowl because of a hamstring injury suffered in practice. His appearance in the game caught many observers by surprise, but his contribution was more of a morale boost. He had just two carries for 14 yards in the College Football Playoff semifinal.
However, LSU coach Ed Orgeron told the media he expects the running back to be at full strength for Monday's championship game. Edwards-Helaire has rushed for 1,304 yards and an SEC-best 16 touchdowns. In his absence, the Tigers showed depth in the backfield as they piled up 160 yards on 32 carries with two scores against the Sooners. Chris Curry led the way with 16 carries for 90 yards.
Even so, the top-seeded Tigers are far from assured of covering the LSU vs. Clemson spread in the College Football Playoff National Championship 2020. The ACC Tigers have beaten Alabama in two of the past three national title games and currently hold an FBS-best winning streak of 29 games.
They overcame a 16-0 deficit against Ohio State behind a sterling defensive effort in the second half and a game-changing performance by quarterback Trevor Lawrence , who shined in last year's National Championship as a true freshman.
Lawrence led a 94-yard scoring drive, hitting Travis Etienne with a 34-yard pass for the lead with 1:49 left. Nolan Turner stopped Ohio State's last drive with an end zone interception with 37 seconds remaining.
We can tell you Hunt is leaning over the total, but his much stronger play is on the spread. He's found a critical x-factor that makes one side of the spread hit hard. He's sharing what it is, and who to back, only at SportsLine.
After a day full of hats on heads and socially-distanced announcements, 2021 National Signing Day is in the books -- and with it, the Class of 2021 is nearly complete. The 2021 recruiting rankings have settled with Alabama not only on top but pulling in the highest-rated class of all-time .
It has been a year of uncertainty in nearly every walk of life, and the same has been the case in recruiting for the 2021 class. NCAA rules due the pandemic limited the in-person contact that's often used by both coaches and players to help finalize the decision-making process, so Zoom calls and unofficial visits to campus had to suffice for players and coaches.
Now that National Signing Day has wrapped up, let's take a look at who came out on top, and who lagged behind, on Wednesday.
Alabama: The Crimson Tide locked up the No. 1 recruiting class of all-time , edging out 2010 Florida. There was little drama in it as 25 of the 27 players in Alabama's class signed early in December, and even the 26th member was verbally committed in Camar Wheaton, who made things official at his school before lunch. Alabama's class has 16 of the top 91 players in the country. There are an incredible seven five-star prospects. This includes the top two offensive tackles in the nation: JC Latham and Tommy Brockermeyer.
The Tide also have the No. 2 guard in Terrence Ferguson and the No. 1 center in James Brockermeyer. They also have four of the top 10 wide receivers in JaCorey Brooks, Agiye Hall, Christian Leary and JoJo Earl. Oh, plus the No. 2 running back Wheaton. Nick Saban has now hauled in six of the 10 highest-rated recruiting classes ever during his tenure at Alabama. Every class Bama has signed under Saban has won at least one national championship.
Established coaches: Recruiting in the pandemic was quite difficult. There were no visits to college campuses or to high schools. There were no in-person evaluations. No summer camps. No official visits. This gave a big advantage to staff who had pre-existing relationships prospects. Of the top 15 classes in the 247Sports Composite team rankings, none hired a coach in 2019 or 2020.
Texas A&M: The Aggies held off Texas for the commitment of four-star running back LJ Johnson. Texas A&M is rebuilding on the line of scrimmage with this lot, and in total, it has one five-star and 16 four-stars, according to the 247Sports Composite. The Aggies are No. 4 in the SEC and might not be done as No. 1 junior college offensive tackle Jordan Moko commits Friday.
Oregon and USC: Parity can be fun on a week-to-week basis. The Pac-12 badly needs some teams to emerge as elites. A year after finishing 64th in recruiting, Clay Helton retooled his coaching staff and found his Trojans No. 8 in the country. Linebacker Raesjon Davis, a former commitment to LSU, picked USC over Ohio State and Oregon on National Signing Day.
Speaking of Oregon, the Ducks outdid USC in signing the No. 6 class in the nation. This is the third consecutive year in which Oregon has had the best class in the Pac-12, and the Ducks best three classes in their history have all come under coach Mario Cristobal. The Pac-12 and the SEC are the only two conferences to have two teams in the top eight.
Michigan: After a bad year on the field that included a lot of drama surrounding coach Jim Harbaugh's future, Michigan retooled its defensive coaching staff and went on a run, flipping defensive tackle Rayshaun Benny from Michigan State and beating out a number of top schools for George Rooks. The Wolverines have the No. 2 class in the Big Ten and the No. 10 class overall.
Wisconsin: Don't look now, but Wisconsin might be turning its decade plus of winning ways on the field into something better on the recruiting trail. The Badgers signed their highest-rated class ever -- by a wide margin. The No. 15 class in the country includes five-star offensive tackle Nolan Rucci and five other four-star players. Wisconsin's previous high-water mark was the 2020 class, which finished ranked 26th. The Badgers are trying to go from Big Ten West contenders to Big Ten contenders.

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New coaching staffs: Unlike their entrenched counterparts, most new staffs struggled quite a bit. Those whose first season was in 2020 -- or even worse, those who were just hired -- ended up signing a lot of players they have never met. None landed a class in the top 15. None had an average recruit rating of 90+. Most were well below their recruiting standard of the last decade, though Ole Miss and Rutgers did hit or exceed their average of the last decade.
Some, though, basically punted, electing to leave space open for future classes to back count or for transfers. Florida State signed just 17 players. Washington took 15. Auburn has just 16 signees. South Carolina has just 13 under new coach Shane Beamer.
High schoolers who were not standouts: The numbers are still tricking in, and players can sign for the next few months, but early data suggests there were a couple hundred fewer players signed to scholarships at the FBS level this year. The reasons are pretty obvious: the transfer portal and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Many schools preferred to hold back scholarships for existing college players in the transfer portal who the schools know can play as opposed to high schoolers who had limited or no reps this fall due to the pandemic. Staffs simply never got the chance to see them play in person.
"If it is a borderline recruit for us, we'd rather take a transfer who we know can cut it physically at the college level," said one staffer . Read more about the transfer situation here .
Another limiting factor was money. While all 2020 seniors have been granted the ability to come back to school for a bonus year and not count against the scholarship maximum of 85 due to the pandemic, many schools in the Group of Five and even some in the Power Five are unwilling to fund scholarships above and beyond the normal 85 max. That means that many schools will be playing at 85, and if they accept some bonus seniors back for 2021, that self-imposed cap limited the number of high school players they could sign.
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A point spread in sports is a way for oddsmakers to make a matchup between two unbalanced teams more balanced by giving points to or taking points away from each team.
The favorite in a matchup, indicated by a minus (-) sign, will have a given number of points taken away from its final score, while the underdog , known by its plus (+) sign, will have the same number of points added to its final score.
Be sure to check out our sports betting glossary to assist you with some of the terms used in our sports betting guides.
NFL spread betting is probably the most common and popular way to bet on football as it adds some excitement and better odds from just picking an outright winner. If you are new to betting the NFL altogether, be sure to check out our great How to Bet on the NFL guide.
Here is an example of a point spread for an NFL game and how it would look:
As you can see, Dallas is the 4.5-point favorite, which means the Cowboys would need to win the game by five points or more to win the bet. Conversely, New York is a 4.5-point underdog, which means to win the bet the Giants would need to win outright or not lose the game by more than four points.
If the Cowboys win 20-17, they win by three points and do NOT cover the 4.5 points, but the Giants have “covered the spread” by staying within 4.5 points.
Point spread wagers often times will be put into parlays in which you make multiple bets on one slip for a larger payout. If you have a few games that you’d like to wager on and want to see how a payout changes by adding or subtracting games, feel free to play around with our odds calculator to help you learn how odds work.
There are certain point spreads that bettors should be aware of that are known as “ key numbers .” These spreads are directly related to how points are scored in football such as a field goal (three points) or a touchdown (seven, assuming a successful one-point conversion). The three main key numbers in NFL point spread betting are 3, 7 and 10, representing a field goal, a touchdown or a field goal plus a touchdown.
The two most common margins of victory are three and seven because of the type of scoring in the NFL. This is why you should shop around at different sportsbooks to find better lines to maybe gain an edge over the key numbers like getting a +3.5 spread as opposed to just +3 – you can get a quick look at the different books at our NFL odds page .
You can also “buy” points with a “ teaser bet ” in which you can move a +7 line to +8 but the odds may shift from -110 on the +7 to -135 at +8, meaning less of a return on your winning ticket. You can have key numbers on OVER/UNDER totals as well.
The most common betting line for a point spread is -110. A -110 line on either side is like paying a tax or commission to the sportsbook. Bettors would pay 10 percent (aka juice) to the sportsbook, which is essentially a fee for brokering the wager. So, the -110 indicates that a bettor must risk $110 to win $100. Some sportsbooks will even reduce the juice for you, which means you can earn the same $100 payout but risk less money to do it.
For example, if you see -7.5 (-107), then you only need to wager $107 to win $100 (saving you $3). If you see -7.5 (-102), then you only need to wager $102 to win $100.
There are three potential outcomes of your point spread wager: you win, you lose or you push (a tie). Typically, a point spread has odds of -110 for either side of the bet. In the example above between the Cowboys and Giants, the point spread is 4.5 points, while the odds are -110, meaning you would have to wager $110 to earn a profit of $100, or a profit of $0.91 for every dollar you bet.
A losing bet is quite simply you betting on the Cowboys -4.5 and they only win by four. You lose the money that you placed on that bet.
A push wouldn’t happen in the example above because a team can’t win by a half point. It is very common, though, to have a betting line of +3/-3. Let’s say a favorite wins by exactly three. That is called a push and you simply get your money back with no profit and no loss.
PK or Pick’em means that the matchup is so close that there’s neither a favorite nor an underdog. Whatever team you pick to win when betting on the point spread simply has to win the game and the margin of victory doesn’t matter. In these cases, there may not even be a point spread available for the game and you can only bet on the moneyline .
This is a very common occurrence in sports betting and sportsbooks have the full right to shift the spread or odds for any given match prior to its start. Many factors can influence a change of the spread such as injuries, the number of bets coming in for either team or the weather, to name a few. Depending on the timing of placing the bet, the bettor can also have an advantage or a disadvantage depending on which way the spread has shifted.
Here is an example of a change in the spread:
If bettors had wagered on Dallas on Monday, that means they would be at a disadvantage compared to bettors who waited until Thursday because the Thursday bettors now only need Dallas to win by four points instead of five. But it can also go the other way:
If bettors had wagered on Dallas on Monday, they would now have the advantage over the bettors who waited until Thursday because the Thursday bettors need Dallas to now win by eight points or more instead of only five.
Yes, in fact, sportsbooks also release spreads for different points in the match like after the first quarter or first half, which is called live betting or in-game betting . Oddsmakers will set spreads for those different checkpoints and it’s up to you as the bettor to determine which team will lead or trail by a certain number of points after that unit of time.
Here is an example of a first-half spread:
As you can see, Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite to lead the first half by three points or more whereas New York is a 2.5-point underdog, which means the Giants would need to be ahead or not trail by more than two points at the end of the first half.
The popularity of the point spread bet in the NFL is equally shared by NBA bettors and it works essentially the same way. When Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks tip off at Madison Square Garden against the New York Knicks, the Bucks are going to be -800 on the moneyline but may have a point spread of -13.5 points with odds of -110, with the Knicks coming back at +13.5 with a -110 line.
As seen in the NFL with line movement throughout the week, in basketball, you’ll see the line movement occur much faster in a shorter time frame. When we looked at key numbers in the NFL, it was in regard to scoring. A similar approach can be taken in the NBA but it’s more connected to possessions. Look for key numbers such as five and seven because they tend to represent two- and three-possession games.
Be sure to check out our How to Bet on the NBA guide for more options and assistance in getting you in on the action for basketball.
A puckline is what a spread is called in the NHL, while a runline is associated with MLB betting. In both cases, the spread is almost always -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog, however, the betting odds fluctuate a lot more than in NBA or NFL point spreads because the spread doesn’t usually change. There are instances in both the NHL and MLB where you see a 2.5-point runline or puckline but those are few and far between, typically between your league leader and a cellar-dweller.
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