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The Iraq Report: Baghdad hosts regional summit to paper over domestic woes
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Despite this, regional actors will perhaps begin to explore whether the Baghdad summit can be a springboard for the creation of a Middle Eastern de-escalation framework, particularly in light of the increasingly receding influence and authority of the United States, a superpower that has just been embarrassingly defeated and ejected from Afghanistan. Prior to the summit, Iran made it clear that any diplomatic breakthroughs with rival Saudi Arabia would depend on the progress made in the Vienna negotiations it is currently engaged in with the United States. Currently, both Tehran and Washington have made little progress on a revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the JCPOA or Iran nuclear deal, aside from stating that they wish to revive it in order to reduce simmering tensions between the two powers. In such a scenario, Iran would be the clear winner and Iraq can claim to have brokered peace. As such, the Baghdad summit could be viewed as being less about regional cooperation and partnership — the title of the summit — and more about defusing tensions at what is perceived by Iran to be a fortuitous moment when the United States has been forced into a humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. Baghdad is also acutely aware of how its own state was in effect established by the American occupation in and can easily unravel should the US decide to completely disengage from Iraq, which provides an insight into why French President Emmanuel Macron insisted on Saturday that France will maintain a military presence in Iraq regardless of any decisions to withdraw made by the White House. The likelihood of Paris being able to fill a vacuum left by Washington, however, is debatable. The lack of American credibility will also encourage Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other attendees to engage in the creation of a regional de-escalation framework. This would be a reactionary measure designed to cover any possible eventuality that the United States would decide to disengage, leaving a power vacuum that can be exploited by hungry up-and-coming powers like China and Russia, and also non-state actors looking to benefit from the insecurity generated, including militant groups like the so-called Islamic State IS. Ankara will remember how former President Barack Obama and his team were cautious to denounce the coup attempt and waited until it became clear that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would prevail. In that regard, the Baghdad summit may represent a start at beginning a conversation about regional dynamics and how to reduce simmering tensions in an already fraught neighbourhood, but it achieved nothing in terms of any major diplomatic breakthroughs. By trying to curry favour with regional powers in an attempt to prop them up should the United States disengage and remove its vital political, economic, and military support, the Iraqi authorities may be at risk of showing Iraqi voters that they care more for the opinions and interests of foreign powers rather than the aspirations of their citizens. Iraqis suffer from a polluted water supply that only recently hospitalised thousands in Basra alone. Similarly, and despite being one of the most energy-rich countries in the world, Iraqis face repeated and extended power supply cuts and are forced to import electricity from Iran. Further, rampant corruption and mismanagement that recently led to a huge blaze in a hospital coronavirus ward that killed almost a hundred patients have only served to punctuate to Iraqis that changes need to be made. Even if Baghdad could attract the support of its neighbours to stabilise the political system, it may still unravel if it completely loses buy-in from the Iraqi people it is supposed to serve. Without that buy-in from the populace, Iran, France, or any country would not be able to stop the Iraqi state from collapsing as it would lack legitimacy amongst its own people, who have been protesting almost continuously since Iraqi policymakers run a risk should they fail to pay close attention to the sentiments of the people they are supposed to govern, as they could ultimately rebel and overthrow the very order they are trying to protect through these diplomatic endeavours. Click here to see the full archive. News News Menu. Live Story. Blinken heads to Middle East for Gaza ceasefire push. Beirut: Israel strike kills 4, including child, near hospital. Hamas to be led by 'committee, not chief' after Sinwar death. Analysis Menu. What military options does Hezbollah still have against Israel? Will Russia be drawn into an Israel-Iran regional conflict? Opinion Menu. October will always symbolise Palestinian resilience in Gaza. The myth of Greater Israel drives Zionist genocidal expansionism. Features Menu. Did Netflix's Honeymoonish fail to appease its Arab audience? Why are US universities taking neutral stances on the Gaza war? By destroying Nabatieh market Israel aims to eradicate heritage. Publish date. Sort by Relevance Most Recent. Breadcrumb Analysis. The Iraq Report: Baghdad hosts regional summit to paper over domestic woes. The Baghdad summit may represent a start in creating a framework for regional de-escalation, but Iraqi elites have shown little progress in ameliorating domestic woes. Inside MENA. The New Arab Staff. How Afghanistan's neighbours are preparing for Taliban rule. Samuel Ramani. The Iraq Report: Deadly Nasiriyah blaze reignites fury. Iraq Report. Read More. Trump promises things will turn out 'well' in Lebanon. Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen dies at Egypt's Sisi: regional 'pressure' could trigger economic woes. More In Analysis. Dario Sabaghi. Mohamed Solaimane. A general view shows participants attending the Baghdad conference in the Iraqi capital on 28 August
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