Namejs 2023 and the Ticking Clock on Russians in Latvia

In August of 2023 it was announced by the Armed Forces of Latvia that Namejs 2023 will begin this September.

This is an opportunity that could see the situation in Latvia evolve, considering the reports of the Ministry of Defence proposing a draft law that would allow cooperation and signing of contracts between private companies and the military. This law was expected to take effect on September 1st, in perfect timing with the training. Expected to be massive in scale (though, historically, it has been even larger), it has created a unique moment for all interested parties to observe the latest changes taking effect in the Comprehensive Defence Plan.

The Namejs exercise last year was part of a larger sequence of manoeuvres focused primarily on the logistical side of receiving, and organizing incoming NATO troops, and supplying them further, alongside Latvia's National Guard and Army personnel. However, this year, Latvian media has claimed that these exercises will be an all-encompassing event with the focus on furthering international cooperation with Lithuanian, Estonian and NATO forces. The National Guard of Latvia is expected to take on an important role as well, with over 8 thousand soldiers participating in total. Possibly the Youth Guard, which can legally train children as young as 10, will partake in this event given the massive scale and stated intent to involve as much of the military and civil sector as possible.

The involvement of Baltic contingents are in line with earlier statements made by members of the Ministry of Defence earlier this year concerning the need for more cooperation between the Baltic states in order to improve their abilities to act as one force. Despite this, and other changes primarily involving the National Guard's massive involvement, the overall intent of the exercise doesn't seem to change much from Namejs 2021. The usual task of repelling a conventional military force from the East using delaying actions and acts of guerrilla warfare, and involvement of civilian areas in line with Latvian defence policies.

It's natural for this country to assume that despite ethnic tensions being clearly exploitable, the Russian army will always eventually intervene in defence of their detached kin if non-military efforts to achieve what the Latvians perceive as their intended goals fail. Namejs and previous exercises have been created and acted out with this knowledge, but there is always a clear indication that Latvia takes the idea of partisan work behind their lines very seriously. If they didn't, Social Resilience wouldn't be critical in the NDC. This does not mean, however, that their political actions support this in practice. Since the conflict in Ukraine began, the Latvian government has taken steps to forcefully Latvinize the Russian and Latgalian minorities, pushing them closer into a position where they might turn to increasingly violent means to preserve their identity. 

Most American readers can feel empathy for these peoples, in particular the native Russians, if you imagine your State Government pressing you to learn one of the many Native American languages because it is the "native" tongue of that state. Despite you being born there, failing a test will end in you being "asked" to leave the country within 2 weeks, further failure resulting in forceful removal. Those tethered to a German heritage can recall the discrimination towards them during the First World War. Being treated as spies and traitors, having rights trampled upon by a now hostile state. Ground down into the American mass at gunpoint, silencing the Germans out of memory.

Despite this, Latvian defence relies heavily on the willingness of society to resist a perceived enemy, but this is only possible if society is in a healthy state prior to any conflict. The idea of Ludendorff's Total War which is so heavily seen in this doctrine is a delicate machine which requires every gear to move in order to function. Germany in the Second World War would not have been nearly as effective or fanatical in their death struggles if it hadn't been for this societal unity. Latvia is in the process of forcing this cohesion into existence through everything; from laws to media.

This is not going to plan, and although acknowledged by the Latvian government to some extent, they don't care in any meaningful capacity. Perhaps paranoia of the Russian beast breathing down Latgalia's neck is even half-feigned. Regardless, the greatest support for these actions comes from Russian and Latgalian inaction. Too much bread in the mouths of Latgale keeps them from speaking against their erasure, much like with any docile populace. The prolonged wait to act in their own self defence has given the Latvian government all the time and resources they need to bring Russian expulsion from paper to irreversible practice.