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Turkey sees an opportunity to build its influence in the Turkic nations of Central Asia. It is an attractive strategic move for Ankara — but it is not without dangers, as Turkey is certain to butt heads with other powers in the region, namely China, Russia and Iran. Turkey has long-standing ambitions to enhance its influence among the Turkic peoples of Central Asia. Seeking to spread its vision of pan-Turkism, it has sponsored programs of cultural exchange, accepted large numbers of guest workers from the region and promoted trade. Yet these initiatives have not brought Turkey closer to its goals. Russia has used its historical role as regional hegemon to thwart Turkish influence. Now, Yerevan must accept a corridor across its territory, from the southern part of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, an Azeri exclave landlocked between Armenia and Iran. The route gives Turkey a clear path to the Caspian Sea, allowing Ankara to break free from dependence on Iran and mount a more forceful challenge to Russia. The new realities in the Middle East will likely motivate Ankara to increase its influence in Central Asia. Having normalized its ties with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, Israel is heading toward a fundamental transformation in its relations with the Arab world, and could even normalize its relations with Saudi Arabia. These changes are a blow to President Erdogan, who has cultivated an image as a protector of Muslim rights. He has provided support for the Muslim Brotherhood and for Hamas, which has been allowed to hold meetings in Turkey. The new geopolitical realities in the Middle East will likely motivate Ankara to compensate by increasing its influence in the South Caucasus and in Central Asia. Following three decades of wrangling, in mid-January Baku and Ashgabat finally agreed on joint development of an oil field in the Caspian Sea. Although the new field will not be overly important by itself, the cooperation could open a route to European markets for Turkmen gas. There are several reasons why the TCP is likely to remain little more than a vision. With all recent Turkmen field development under contract to China, there is no clear source of gas for the TCP. Under current market conditions, it is hard to see it become commercially viable. Also, there is no guarantee that the operators of the SGC will commit to the necessary capacity expansion. This said, the renewed interest in the TCP shows how regional geopolitics are changing in favor of Azerbaijan and Turkey. In the end, the geopolitical benefit may trump commercial caution. Western powers have long supported the TCP, which would bypass Russia. Turkey is also working on extending other major transport infrastructure projects across the Caspian Sea. One would open a route to Kazakhstan and onward to the dry port of Khorgas on the Chinese border. The other would breathe new life into the Lapis Lazuli Corridor that crosses Turkmenistan and ends in Afghanistan. Again, both represent a direct challenge to Russia, whose traditional role in the region has been associated with transport infrastructure running from north to south. The link combines rail transport with shipping across the Caspian, from Aktau in Kazakhstan to Baku in Azerbaijan. From there, the route proceeds to Georgia where it splits into spurs to Turkey and across the Black Sea to Europe. Ankara joined the project in , motivated by the completion in October of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway. Russia, which also hopes to profit from the BRI, opposes the plan. The Lapis Lazuli Corridor forms another important part of this strategy. Following an opening ceremony in December , in January this year representatives of Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Afghanistan met to agree on a road map for deeper cooperation. The link westward from Turkmenistan proceeds via ferry from Turkmenbashi to Baku and then by rail to Georgia, Turkey and Europe. The main rival here is Iran. In , it launched a pivot toward Central Asia that included a free trade deal with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. Seeking to undermine competition from Turkey, in October Tehran more than doubled its transit tariffs and in January it announced it would stop providing fuel for Turkish trucks. It was in response to these moves that Turkey began to look in earnest for ways to redirect its trade flow across the Caspian, bypassing Iran. Its incentive to do so increased as the flow of Turkish trade through Iran rose, from , tons in to 1. The opening of the Nakhchivan corridor promises to deal a double blow to Iran. Tehran not only risks losing much of the transit traffic that circumvented Armenia as it flowed between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave, but also the lucrative flow of goods from Turkey to Central Asia. It is also important that major investments have gone into developing infrastructure on an east-west orientation. Recently, officials in Kazakhstan have also announced plans to greatly increase capacity at the Port of Aktau, allowing more goods to flow from Azerbaijan to Turkey. Russia and Iran have responded to these developments with saber-rattling. The two have considerably larger naval assets in the Caspian than the other three littoral states, and they have repeatedly staged joint naval drills to highlight this advantage. It was no coincidence that one such drill was conducted while the armistice in the Nagorno-Karabakh war was being negotiated. It is true that much of the speculation about an increased role for Turkey in Central Asia rests on the Nakhchivan corridor, which remains in the hands of Russia. This said, even if it should fail to live up to expectations, it has already played an important role in transforming regional geopolitical expectations. By taking a decisive stance in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, Turkey has enhanced its position in Central Asia. As it deepens its cooperation with the states in the region, it will play an increasingly important role in balancing the influence of Russia and China. Skip to content. In a nutshell. Federica Saini Fasanotti. Stefan Hedlund. Ralph Mathekga. Fidel Amakye Owusu. Adinda Khaerani Epstein. Junhua Zhang. John Polga-Hecimovich.

Blow to European leaders' summit as Azerbaijan, Turkey are no-shows

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Unfortunately, in his press statement, Nikol Pashinyan dealt another blow to the negotiation plan with Baku, while reading the proposal for peace talks prepared on the basis of the instructions of his patrons. Pashinyan, who imported lethal weapons from France and India to Yerevan, allegedly presents Azerbaijan as a country that receives weapons from Italy. However, the agreement signed by Azerbaijan with the Italian company Leonardo is not about the sale of lethal weapons, but only about the CJ NG Spartan aircraft carrying military ammunition. Since the Prime Minister of Armenia could not find a valid excuse, he resorted to false allegations about Azerbaijan and tried to dramatize the issue. However, it is unnecessary for Armenia to buy lethal weapons from France, the United States, India, and other countries. Pashinyan's next lie was his false statements about Azerbaijan's budget expenditures. He noted in his claim that Azerbaijan spends 17 percent of its GDP on military purposes. However, in Azerbaijan, this number is around 4 percent, and in Armenia it is much higher. Moreover, Armenia also has invisible budget resources, for which purposes it is spent is a subject of discussion. So, let us take a closer look at the issue:. Although landlocked Armenia shares a land border with 4 countries, the country's international strategic capabilities are very limited. The main reason for this is that Armenia occupied the territories of Azerbaijan starting in , and because of this, the borders with Turkiye and Azerbaijan remain closed to this day. Given this, Armenia has relations with only Georgia and Iran, and although these relations are used for commercial purposes, they are not able to bring further surpluses to the economy of this country. For example, if we just look at the statistical figures for , we can say that the volume of exports from Armenia to Iran was approximately million US dollars. About In addition, in Armenia, the internal market of the country has not been formed due to the fact that factories and companies bringing large-scale investments do not operate. However, there is a fact that everyone already knows, which is the fact that despite heavy Western sanctions on Moscow, Armenia's exports to Russia are increasing day by day. For example, Armenia's exports to Russia increased three times in alone. Armenia, which joined the Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia in , for some reason, began to strengthen its trade with Russia precisely after the Ukrainian war. The specific weight of Russia in Armenia's total foreign trade remained at about the same level decreased from This means that the share of exports and imports in trade with Russia is almost the same 47 percent to 53 percent. Now let us get back to the answer to the main question. But what has not changed is the general living conditions of the population in Armenia. Experts emphasise that Armenia either overestimates the economic figures or that the country's income is used for different purposes. Certainly, one of them is the rapid armament policy of Armenia, especially after its defeat in the Second Garabagh War in So, Pashinyan's claims about Azerbaijan's budget backfired again. Unable to find a possible excuse, Nikol Vovayevich says, 'Why not Armenia to get armed while Azerbaijan does so? Answer: Azerbaijan and Armenia should be distinguished. Armenia is an occupying state and occupied the lands of Azerbaijan for 30 years. After the Second World War, there are few states that invaded the territory of other countries, one of them is Armenia. For example, after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, an arms embargo was imposed on Iraq. If Armenia develops its military potential, there is no guarantee that it will not use it later. Therefore, there should be some control mechanism over Armenia's acquisition of military equipment. The countries that arm Armenia are also responsible for this. Pashinyan's claims about the Constitution of Azerbaijan are barely a lie, and he himself knows very well that Azerbaijan has no territorial claims against anyone. In general, there is no legal basis for what he said, and it is clear that Armenia uses manipulative methods. When Azerbaijan says the need to change the Constitution of Armenia, it means that the Armenian people should put an end to the miatsum issue through a referendum and accept that the Garabagh issue is over once and for all. Even the claims of the Armenian Prime Minister regarding the non-abolition of the Minsk Group of the OSCE have a manipulative character and hide his real intention in his hypocritical nature. For Azerbaijan, the issue of the Minsk Group has already gone down in history, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev has stated this many times, and the other day he voiced it again while receiving the delegation of the Grand National Assembly of Turkiye in Baku. In addition to demarcation and delimitation of the borders, communication with other territories of Azerbaijan should be ensured. Because when it comes to the issue of Zangazur, only one issue comes to mind: Armenia's leaving Nakhchivan under a blockade for more than 30 years. The blockade continued even after Pashinyan came to power. Now Armenia is talking about unblocking communications within the framework of its interests, which is nothing but hypocrisy. First, Armenia should show goodwill, and create an opportunity to open communication between the main part of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan AR, and then other transport issues can be considered. Azerbaijan cannot leave its citizens to the hope of Armenia, because everyone knows how Armenia behaves in this case. Baku has set its demands before Armenia and Yerevan has no chance to take a step back after that. Follow us on Twitter AzerNewsAz. Elnur Enveroglu Read more. Sign In. Login with Facebook. Sign Up. Password reset.

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