NUS, CITIZENS OF CRIMINALS, LET'S GO TO THE CASE ... Captain Shchegle's monologue. "THE VENUE CANNOT BE CHANGED." The film was shot by the Odessa Film Studio in the USSR, today it is Ukraine 🇺🇦 starring Vladimir Vysotsky.

           ϮɍϊƀυƖє Ӽ

Let's go 🛫 

Cdc official data, for the first 16 weeks (that's 112 days: January 1 to April 21 or April 22, depending on the year) of each year in the U.S. died:

2014: 840,145 people

2015: 893,156 (+6.3%)

2016: 878,457 (-1.6%)

2017: 919,548 (+4.7%)

2018: 946,067 (+2.9%)

2019: 919,693 (-2.8%)

2020: 944,251 (+2.7%)

I note that there is no complete data on deaths in the United States starting from the 17th week of 2020. That is, the dead "from COVID" of course, counted, but the rest of the deaths are not counted. I will present the operational (not final) data below.

The crown 👑 2020 is terrible compared to 2019 : 24.6 thousand additional deaths. But the same "terrible" and 2018 compared to 2017 : 26.5 thousand and "terrible" 2015 compared to 2014: 53.0 thousand "additional" deaths. But 2020 compared to 2018 - so generally the soul sings : 1800 deaths less. In 2015 and 2018, the economy of the planet did not stop it seems ? And the media didn't fight in fits of hysterics? And I wrote, stop acting like a tantrum. 

Absolute mortality rates, especially in the first few weeks of the year, are of little statistical value. In 2014, there were 318.856 million people living in the United States (as of July 1st) and 330.568 million in 2019 (3.7%).

From the table we see that mortality in the first 16 weeks of 2018 is higher than in the first 16 weeks of 2020. The difference is about 30 deaths per million population.

Average for 6 years (from 2014 to 2019): 2770.2 deaths per million. Average deviation 85.7. The deviation of 2020 from the average of 82.5, that is less than one average deviation for the previous 6 years. The probability that mortality in the first 16 weeks of 2020 is not a statistical "noise" is no more than 20.1%.

Consider annual mortality. Sixteen weeks is 30.6% of the length of the year, that is, all our - now annual - values will be about 3 times more. Deaths for the whole of 2020, we do not know yet.

Mortality in the United States for the entire last century is well known. Unlike many countries in Europe and Asia, the U.S. did not fight at all, so the unaccounted loss of population/soldiers is statistically insignificant. The graph clearly shows the consequences of the first two waves of the "Spanish" epidemic in February and August 1918. The additional mortality rate in 1918 was 3'480 per million. But the third and fourth waves - in 1919 and 1920 - paradoxically, led to a decrease in the mortality rate compared to 1911-17 by 1,000 deaths per million - from 13'900 to 12'900. To be precise, we don't know if the first and fourth waves were "Spanish" at all. There were no biological samples left, about the structure of DNA/RNA and their role in heredity at the time were not known, and even believed that the flu is caused by the bacteria Haemophilus influenzae (where the name) and not the virus. It could well be more plebeian flu, just for fear eyes are big and all colds in 1920 automatic recorded in "flu-flu".

Two other major influenza pandemics - "Asian" 1957-58 and "Hong Kong" 1968 - are visible only by drawing arrows on the graph. The additional mortality rate in the United States was 150 and 160 people per million, respectively. Dividing 3'480 by 155, we get that the famous Hong Kong flu, about which Vysotsky sang, was in the U.S. about 20 times less deadly than "Spanish." About the formidable "swine" flu of 2008 and do not remember. In the U.S., the death rate has even decreased slightly compared to 2007. Compare the peaks of terrible flu with the beginning of the Great Depression (from 1929) or World War II (since 1940).

We will expand the horizons of knowledge with the same schedule for the period from 1950 to 2019.

We see that the death rate in the U.S. was falling through the 2009 low, when the minimum was reached: 7, 940 deaths per million per year. Since 2010, the U.S. death rate has been increasing. In 2018, the Demographic Committee gives pre-8, 652 per million; For 2019 there is only a less accurate estimate of the UN 🇺🇳 : 8.800 deaths per million. 

This is 9.0% and 10.8% more than the minimum of 2009.

In 2019, the death rate in the United States - as in 1975. Half a century rolled back, and nothing, there is no panic. The two main reasons are long-term and medium-term. 

First, in 2010, 65 million Americans born during the "baby boom" turned out to be an average of 50 (in 2018, the peak at the ages of 50-64, take 8 : 42-56 years). 

And from the age of 60, as you know, begins the "age of mortal."

If we apply the method "we will calculate the average mortality in the U.S. for 6 previous years and take away from the mortality of the current year", we will get:

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In 2011, the "additional" mortality rate was 27 per million. It is clear that the all-American self-isolation to declare to nothing. In 2014 - 144 per million. Influenza pandemic - there is. There is no all-American self-isolation. 2017. Two hundred and eighty additional deaths per million. Again, there is an annual influenza pandemic, and there is no panic again. In 2018, the first 16 weeks of mortality is higher than in neighboring years, but at the end of the year additional deaths were even less: 210 against 280. That's because autumn 2018 was flu-friendly.

And one more thing: since 2015, "additional" mortality is consistently higher than standard deviation. The probability that there is simply an accidental fluctuation of data, rather than a systematic increase of 100-120 deaths per million per year, is p'8.3x10-6. A little better than the conventional p<0.005, isn't it? If the mortality function grows linearly, then choosing the average for 6 previous years, you will automatically get about 250-300 "additional" deaths per million annually. Naturally, they are not "additional." Comparison with the average for previous years can only be removed long-term trend.

Now to monthly mortality data in the U.S. They have been in the public domain since 1980. There will be a month's mortality rate on the vertical axis, and the numbers are about 1/12 of the annual mortality rate.

For accuracy we use the "astronomical" month. Time is recorded in years. From 2020.0 to 2020 1/12 q 2020.0833 - January, from 2020.0833 to 2020 2/12 q 2020.1667 - February, and so on. This is to ensure that in February there will be no artificial reduction in deaths. In February 28 or 29 days, and in January and March - 31. With the same daily mortality, the leap calendar February will show 1-29/31/6.5% fewer deaths than the neighboring months. In a non-leap year, the margin of error is even worse: 1-28/31/9.7%. Similarly, the errors for June and july-August and for the chain October-November-December are removed. Of course, in the latter the margin of error is less significant: 1-30/31/3.2%.

In 2020, astronomical February begins on January 31 and ends on March 1. Astronomical March - from March 2 to March 31, and so on. In the leap year, the first four months of the year are 31 to 29, 31 to 30 days, and 121 days in a normal year. The difference is 1-120/121.83%.

SkySheep will say "it's seasonal." And I'd be right. In the colder months - around November to March, mortality is higher, and this was noted by statistical reports back in the 1920s (and the elderly knew for many thousands of years: "we would survive the winter"!) in January-February by about 120-150 deaths per million per month more than in July-August. 150 deaths per million per month is the equivalent of 150 to 12'1'800 deaths per million per year, which is about an order of magnitude (once in 10) more than the average deviation from 6 years. Well, it should be noted that the peak of mortality is most often in January or February, but there are years when it is in December, and there is a peak in March-April, for example 1995. 2020 is one of the rare years with a double peak. And yes, it's certainly anomalous - the peak in April and May is very high - but more on that is a little lower.

Let's increase the scale of the graph, leaving only data since 1997. According to operational data for the first half of 2020, there is an abnormal peak in April; it is, of course, associated with coronavirus. The question is: what is connected? The standard response in the official media: "KiCoVide-2 is vicious and insidious! 

The valiant government of the former Doni all 2020 protects the nation from the imminent death of remember innocent victims 🕯 

The final report on mortality for 2019 has not been published, but there is a UN estimate. Red on the chart - operational statistics. The data for 2018 are officially "preliminary". The final wait.

Compare the mortality from the virus / with virius KiCoVir-2 with other causes of death in the U.S. (official tables still end December 31, 2017).

As of August 1, 2020, 453 people per million people have died with the virus/virus. For 2009-2017, mortality from cardiovascular diseases - about 2'000 per million, and about 1'850 - from oncology. This is 6 times more than the death rate from COVID-19.

Deaths from road accidents and other accidents increased for 7 years, suicides increased for 12 years. Do you seriously believe that there will be fewer homicides and suicides in the U.S. in 2020 than in 2019?

Respiratory diseases are about twice as many as reported deaths from KiCoVir-2. It is clear that influenza (fluenza) and pneumonia are combined in one category. Flu tests do little - in terms of treatment, these data are useless, insurance companies pay for such tests very reluctantly (As, indeed, in Russia.

Strokes and other blood clots or broken blood clots killed 550 people per million in the United States. A 70-year-old patient with a stroke is being taken to the hospital by ambulance. And at the gate of the hospital - a queue of ambulances for 8 hours, despite the fact that the hospital is half empty. That's because WHO suggested that "more than three not to gather" in the waiting room. Naturally, our 70-year-old patient won't wait for his turn. And it will be written off as "deceased as a result of COVID" so that relatives will keep quiet. I won't argue with the word "consequence" (not "from" and not "c"). I will note only that it is not the virus that is to blame, but the order of the medbureaucrat.

Well, "other diseases" for the completeness of the picture and feelings with feelings, if after the annual psychosis they are still.

Now we will move from the official "final" to the "operational" data. Unlike the final, these "have the right" to change in any direction. "https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/, and "operational"

In April-May 2020, the U.S. did have abnormal mortality, the reasons for the slightly lower. In June, everything began to return to normal. Judging by the weekly data, the total mortality of June is exactly the seasonal average (bottom graph). If we take away the "official" deaths from COVID-19, the remaining mortality is below the mid-season by two standard deviations (top chart). Together, this means that "COVID" enrolls patients with other chronic sores, for example after a heart attack.

Where did the "additional" mortality in April-May come from? Versions of worthy hypotheses are full:

Ambulance queues in hospitals - it was almost everywhere. Here's the stroke example above. 

Panic. But it's not good to show the refrigerators on TV.

They infected terminal (for example, cancer) patients in hospices - they KiCoVir-2 shortened life for 2-4 months, and maybe even less.

High-speed discharge in nursing homes - on the orders of the Mayor of New York - 4'500 old people with COVID-19 "https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/ap-count-4300-virus-patients-ny-... This real sabotage happened in New York on March 25. Guess three times what happened in these nursing homes in April? It wasn't until May 10 that the mayor's directive was rescinded.

Suicides, etc. Unemployment is the same.

Crime - to live addict on something necessary?

In general, many people died as a result of unprecedented anti-epidemic measures, which proved useless. Here Sweden has been criticised for its "non-quarantine" death rate in Sweden with the deaths of the elderly in other countries. Eighteenth in the world. In the same table on the honorary 96th place Iceland, where also not quarantined.

Deaths from COVID-19 as a proportion of 2019 senile deaths (30 "leaders," more selectively):

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США вскрости по старческой смертности Швецию перегонят. Российский эскулап уже уделали немецкие, австрийские и белорусские коллеги. В Белоруссии тоже что-то было не так с повальным карантином ? Или я ошибаюсь ? 

Точная смертность в США по итогам 2020 года? Она будет опубликована официально во второй половине 2022. Мы ещё 2018 не дождались, не так ли? К тому времени народ - в том числе молодёжь - будут умирать тысячами от безработицы, преступности и голода, и на этом фоне сотня дополнительной смертности на миллион два года назад никого не взволнует.

Вы хочите официальных документов? Их есть у меня за все годы:

[1] Deaths: Final Data for 1998 by Sherry L. Murphy, Division of Vital Statistics

[2] Deaths: Final Data for 1999 Donna L. Hoyert, Ph.D., Elizabeth Arias, Ph.D., Betty L. Smith, B.S. Ed., Sherry L. Murphy, Kenneth D. Kochanek, M.A., Division of Vital Statistics

[3] Deaths: Final Data for 2000 by ArialdiM.Miniño,M.P.H.,ElizabethArias,Ph.D.,Kenneth D.Kochanek,M.A., Sherry L.Murphy,B.S.,BettyL.Smith,B.S.Ed.,Divisionof Vital Statistics

...

[20] Deaths: Final Data for 2017, by Kenneth D. Kochanek, M.A., Sherry L. Murphy, B.S., Jiaquan Xu, M.D., and Elizabeth Arias, Ph.D., Division of Vital Statistics

[21] Mortality in the United States, 2018 Jiaquan Xu, M.D., Sherry L. Murphy, B.S., Kenneth D. Kochanek, M.A., and Elizabeth Arias, Ph.D.

Не болейте по осени сезонным гриппом Друзья и вообще не болейте и развивайтесь . Пришла в память песня 🎶 ‘’ Черный ворон ‘’из детства, из советского фильма ‘’ Чапаев ‘’ , пришла в контексте этой работы  . Я переделал и приведу свой поэтический вариант этого народного произведения бывших советских республик СССР :

Черным вороном в русском войске называли священника Нараду , стоит заметить , дабы молодые граждане и граждане не российского подданства знали : Крещение прошло в 988 году.

Крещение Руси — термин, под которым в современной исторической науке подразумевается введение в Киевской Руси христианства как государственной религии, осуществлённое в конце X века князем Владимиром Святославичем.

В ту пору Киев поддерживал дружественные отношения с Константинополем, который на Руси звали Царьградом. Владимир договорился о военной помощи с императорами Константином VIII и Василием II. Взамен князь возжелал заключить брак с представительницей императорского дома Анной, что ему и было обещано. Так как Анна не могла стать женой не-христианина, Владимир сообщил о желании креститься. К нему прибыл священник, от которого правитель Руси и принял крещение в Киеве, а вместе с ним — дети, жены, слуги, часть бояр и дружинников. Личное крещение князя не было случайностью или результатом сиюминутного порыва : оно являлось обдуманным шагом опытного политика и предполагало, что со временем произойдет христианизация всей страны ... Та страна назвалась Киевская Русь. Священник Нараду, отпевал павших. После боя он в черном одеянии с гуслями шёл по полю, решая судьбу лежащих на нём. Раненых отправляли в лагерь, лечили, а у тяжело раненых выслушивали последнюю волю, чтобы передать её их родным и близким. И только после этого можно было отпеть всех павших.

Чёрный ворон

Чёрный ворон, что ты вьёшься,

Над моею головой!

Ты добычи не дoбьёшься,

Чёрный ворон, я - не твой...

Ты добычи не дoбьёшься,

Чёрный ворон, я - не твой...

Что ты когти, да распускаешь?

Что ты песнь свою поёшь?

Коль добычу себе чаешь,

за то весточку снесёшь...

Коль добычу себе чаешь,

за то весточку снесёшь...

Завяжу смертельну рану

Я подарённым платком,

А затем с тобой я стану

Говорить про всё рядком...

А затем с тобой я стану

Говорить про всё рядком...

Полети в родну сторонку,

где у маменьки был сын ,

И скажи ей потихоньку,

Что за Родину я пал.

Потихоньку, взяв за плечи, *

Что за Родину я пал.

А отцу блять обормоту ,

Что я род не посрамил,

И пред ворогом смертельным

Назад шагу не ступил...

И пред ворогом смертельным

Назад шагу не ступил...

Скажи сёстрам , скажи брату -

Я хороший сука брат.

А к родимым семи вёрстам

Не вернусь я блять назад...

А к родимым семи вёрстам

Нп вернусь я блять назад...

Передай платок кровавый

Луизе миленькой  моёй,

Скажи ей: вояка бравый

Он женился на другой ...

Скажи ей: вояка бравый

Он женился на другой...

Взял невесту скромно - тиху 

Легок шаг, в глазах огонь,  

А сватами у них  были

Брат Барак и этот конь 🐎 ...

А сватами у них были

Брат Барак и это конь...

Встану рано, выйду в поле-

В небеса зовут меня ...

Там без страха и без боли

Мое солнышко ☀️ встает...

Кручена струна пропела

Над моею головой -

Видно, смерть моя застыла ,

Черный Ворон, я не твой...

Видно, смерть ☠️ моя застыла ,

Черный Ворон, я не твой 

Милая Луиза, исполняй песню  в своём молебне под гитару , как молитву пой перед отступившей смертью человечества в битве с подонками . Дабы ещё оставшиеся в наличии мужчины шли  в бой , а также встали тобой отпетые и тоже шли . Поскольку те кто способен и ходит сейчас  их явно мало, надо поднять прошлых героев . А также поминай перед трапезой за столом , как поминальная в честь оставшихся ещё в живых воинов .

Можешь исполнять из за спины мужчины , если он есть в наличии  : пой со спины и бери его  за плечи, но не ниже талии не спускайся , пожалуйста.  Мужчина не в коем случае не должен смотреть тебе в глаза. Поскольку по сюжету нашей драмы ,  ты материнское горе и не вольно можешь проклясть его . Да ещё милая , вообще-то , этому мужчине ( он собирательный образ ) просто некуда деть свои бестыжие глаза. 

Я набросал для тебя милая штрихи нового клипа в образ Варвары красы - длинной косы - устойчивый образ смерти в русских былинах . Но в моем сюжете ты останешься жива , не переживая и на принимай к сердцу . Налей и прими лучше бокал вина перед вхождением в образ ,  и не бросайся прямо сейчас писать завещание милая 🥰 , пожалуйста. А то ничего мне не достанется . 

В сети отсутствует текст, имеется только видео ролик, первоисточник : История песни Черный Ворон. Что означают строки в песне Черный Ворон. Древний Бессмертный Полк. И это название бессмертный полк тоже старое . Вообще то нового никто ничего не придумал друзья .

Ролик со старыми фотографиями 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=yWTXndh9_xg&feature=share

А если серьезно друзья , конечно это казаки и река Дон — река в контексте песни означает реку жизни. Но казак ныне весь извёлся ...

https://youtube.com/watch?v=hr0WwY5Bulw&feature=share

Louise is a sweet 🥰 

At the end of the creative translation of the text, thought of myself. I'd also be good at making a movie of a duet song with you. Since the voices of 🗳 in me there is no 👎🏿 I will be able to pull only a hoarse voice under Vysotsky Volodya . But I'm going to need a ballet 🩰 of girls. Think about it 🙏. The lyrics I picked up are a comic song 🎶, I sang it at karaoke 🎤 with Korzhakov in Tula. I think it will be possible in another place after training with you on vocals I am sure I will restore lost skills to sing 🎤 into the microphone 🎙. Here's the text below, I didn't edit it as the first song. And in principle it is not a problem, you can write something of your own words. Or I'll write it down later. So we will gradually make a musical opera. The material has accumulated so much that enough for everyone and for a year ahead. We have a lot of people, each vaudeville put and go on a tour, in Mongolia:

Vladimir Vysotsky

A Song about the relocation of souls

Who believes in Mohammed, who believes in Allah, who believe in Jesus,

Who does not believe in anything - even in spite of all ...

The Hindus invented a good religion.

That we don't die for good.

Your soul was striving to high-

You'll be born again with a dream,

But if you lived like a pig,

You'll stay a pig.

Let them look at you obliquely, get used to reproach,

It's a shame- well, you'll be born again on the barbs of the gorda,

And if you saw the death of the enemy during this lifetime,

In the other you will be given a faithful keen eye.

Live your life normally

There is a reason to have fun:

After all, maybe the chief

Your soul will allude.

Let you live as a janitor, you'll be born again - a foreman,

And then you grow up from the foreman to the minister,

But if you're stupid, like a tree, you'll be born with a baobab.

And you'll be a baobab for years while you die.

It's a shame to live a parrot,

A viper with a long century...

Wouldn't it be better to be in life

A decent man?!

Who's who, who was who? We never know.

Genetics from the gene and chromosomes have gone mad!

Maybe that shabby cat used to be a scoundrel,

And this sweet man used to be a good dog.

I'm jumping with delight,

I go around the arts

A convenient religion

It was invented by the Hindus!

Be happy!! 

Thank you attention.

ϒ𝔬𝔲𝔯 𝔍𝔬𝔨𝔢𝔯 🃏