Mozambique, a gas Eldorado and problems with a proxy Islamic State

Throughout the spring, companies like TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil have been assessing the security situation in an important Cabo Delgado region rich with LNG and discussing plans to return to the province. The government of Mozambique is trying to make these companies resume their projects to gain benefits from it. However, the situation in the region to this day remains poor.

What exactly is wrong with Cabo Delgado?

Islam is the second largest religion in Mozambique after Christianity. According to official data, 18% of the total population is Sunni Islam. Muslims predominantly live in the north of the country.

In 2015, a radical Islamic movement, Ansar al-Sunna, formed in the northern regions of Cabo Delgado province, is full of resources and liquefied natural gas to the extent that it is called the “gas Eldorado”. We have seen this in Nigeria with Beafria.

Gradually the movement became more radicalized and called for a radical form of Sharia law, delegitimization of Mozambique's central government, and began organizing camps where anti-government forces and IS instructors began to train members of the movement. (naval, heavy equipment use ) The reason among the population for joining the insurgency is the underdevelopment of the region and youth unemployment. The group's funding is based on drug trafficking, smuggling, and ivory trade. Criminal networks as cover for exports. Crime as a weapon used against all AU citizens.

In the fall of 2017, rebel forces turned to guerrilla warfare against Mozambique's central government. After the rebels in three years of fighting captured several major towns in northeastern Cabo Delgado and the IS was already fully involved into the fight against Mozambican armed forces, in 2021 the Southern African Development Community organized a peacekeeping mission and deployed combined forces into northern Mozambique. Rwanda also sent a military contingent to fight Islamic radicals.
#SAMIM Mozambican authorities, for their part, legalized militia and police activities in Cabo Delgado.

What happens nowadays?

The armed forces of Mozambique, @MDNMZ2022 together with the Southern African Development Community and Rwanda, are gradually regaining control of the territory of Cabo Delgado.

At the same time, Ansar al-Sunnv and IS continue to wage guerrilla war, concentrating on local police and militia homeowners with criminal actions.

Part of the IS group has already left the country by sea, while the insurgents are trying to quietly "integrate" back into society so as not to surrender or be killed.

Despite successes against radical Islamists, northern Mozambique is still unstable territory. It is feared that with the withdrawal of foreign troops, the armed struggle will erupt with renewed vigor. Because their EU sponsors have the ability to land forces by sea. @ParlamentoMoz

Meanwhile, foreign troops have also been accused of brutality against the local population, like in the case of January this year when a video of fighters in South African uniforms burning the bodies of supposed civilians went viral. ( the second ability of the state sponsor is to create information warfare @DelgadoCabo )

The future of the militia and local police, which is currently actively fighting insurgency, is also a cause for concern. If the situation normalizes, there is a possibility that the armed militias could start a new fight against Mozambique's government forces, since the problems that caused the young population to join the Islamists still remain and are slowly being addressed by Mozambican authorities. ( The 3rd force is the 5th column created by the so-called NGOs )

Right now, one thing is certain — international energy companies have renewed their interest in the region and are already preparing to restart their projects. Italian company Saipem said that TotalEnergies will restart the liquefied natural gas project in July 2023.

In a wave of interest in Cabo Delgado, Portugal's Galp Energia made an announcement to sell its 10% stake in a gas production project in Mozambique. ExxonMobil, Eni and China National Petroleum Corporation are potential buyers, although no bidding date has yet been announced.

Yet the situation with the state-sponsored insurgency in Cabo Delgado remains tough, and it is yet unknown whether the return of companies will improve or worsen it.