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Monday Night Pick Against Spread
N.F.L. | N.F.L. Week 9 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread
N.F.L. Week 9 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread
Published Nov. 4, 2021 Updated Nov. 18, 2021
The Rams’ upgraded defense will try to stall the Titans, the Browns and Bengals battle to bounce back, and Kansas City will face the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers.
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Here’s our NFL Week 15 picks against the spread and predictions
The N.F.L.’s trade deadline was as notable for the players who didn’t get moved as for the players who did. The Los Angeles Rams added the Pro Bowl linebacker Von Miller to an already tremendous defense, but the long-rumored Miami Dolphins trade for Deshaun Watson did not come to pass, and Odell Beckham Jr. stayed a member of the Cleveland Browns until the team agreed to release him .
This week’s injured/Covid-list designations have had a greater effect on betting lines than the league’s trades: The Tennessee Titans will try to remain relevant without Derrick Henry, and Aaron Rodgers’s positive coronavirus test has tremendously swung the odds of Kansas City beating his Green Bay Packers.
Below is a look at N.F.L. Week 9 , with all picks made against the spread.
Byes: Buccaneers, Seahawks, Lions, Washington
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Derrick Henry’s foot surgery is expected to keep him out at least six weeks, a devastating absence for the Titans (6-2), who have fed their workhouse running back a league-high 237 touches. His replacement, the veteran Adrian Peterson, 36, probably won’t find success against the Rams (7-1), who just added Von Miller to an already formidable defensive front. Throwing against Los Angeles won’t be any easier, with the Titans’ Ryan Tannehill having to account for Jalen Ramsey in the secondary.
Tennessee can still be a playoff team if the receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones get healthy, (the status of Jones’s hamstring injury makes him questionable to play), but this is not a game that will help the Titans’ case. Pick: Rams -7.5
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m., CBS
This is essentially a must-win for the Browns (4-4), who are in last place in the A.F.C. North and face a pretty insurmountable standings battle if they lose again to divisional opponent. They declined to trade Odell Beckham Jr., and the organization said Friday he would no longer play for the team.
The Bengals (5-3), though, will be eager to show that their upset loss to the Jets was a fluke. After rushing for a mere 41 yards last week — its lowest total this season — Cincinnati will find a particular challenge against the Browns’ sixth-ranked rushing defense. Cleveland pass rusher Myles Garrett, the league’s sack leader (10.5), will be motivated to add Joe Burrow to his quarterback graveyard , and the Browns’ sense of urgency about moving out of last place should compel them to at least keep the score tight. Pick: Browns +3
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City, 4:25 p.m., Fox
Line: Kansas City -7.5 | Total: 54.5
Kansas City (4-4) is not a good team at the moment. The defense has been atrocious, allowing the fourth-most passing yards (2,158) and the eighth-most rushing yards (974) in the N.F.L., and Patrick Mahomes has thrown a league-high 10 interceptions while trying to compensate for the team’s other mistakes.
But Kansas City, playing at home, went from +2.5 underdogs to -7.5 favorites with the news that Aaron Rodgers would miss this game after testing positive for the coronavirus. Still, the Packers (7-1) should have receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard back, and even with tight end Robert Tonyan out with a knee injury, the backup quarterback Jordan Love should have more than enough targets to cut through a meager defense in his first N.F.L. start. Pick: Packers +7.5
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m., Fox
What a difference a week makes. The Cardinals (7-1) were undefeated through seven games, but a loss to the Packers last week and injuries to cornerstone players forced oddsmakers to downgrade Arizona to an underdog for this matchup. Quarterback Kyler Murray (ankle) and center Rodney Hudson (rib) are questionable, while defensive end J.J. Watt (shoulder) is done for the year.
Murray will base his decision to play on how he feels in warm-ups Sunday, but even if Colt McCoy has to step in, the Cardinals have enough offensive firepower to handle the 49ers (3-4), especially if Arizona’s defense makes quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo struggle. Pick: Cardinals +1
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., Fox
The trade deadline passed, and Tua Tagovailoa is still the starting quarterback of the Miami Dolphins (1-7). At least until March.
That’s the earliest an official swap with the Texans (1-7) for Deshaun Watson could be processed, if by then Watson has resolved the 22 accusations of sexual misconduct against him. The actual football contest between these two teams will be overshadowed by that saga, with a win not proving much for either.
Miami played the Bills competitively last week, and the Texans traded their best running back, Mark Ingram, angering their top receiver, Brandin Cooks. The discord should be too much for Houston to surmount, even with Tyrod Taylor’s return to the field for the first time since Week 2. Expect the Dolphins to end a seven-game losing streak. Pick: Dolphins -7
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m., Fox
The Cowboys (6-1) showed last week they could win without Dak Prescott. They won’t have to do it again, as Prescott is planning to start against the Broncos (4-4). Denver traded linebacker Von Miller to the Rams this week in a white-flag move for the teetering franchise. Dallas’s left tackle Tyron Smith is expected to be out, but cornerback Trevon Diggs will play through an ankle injury and should help the Cowboys cover the spread easily. Pick: Cowboys -8.5
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m., Fox
Jameis Winston tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee, and he will miss the remainder of the season for the Saints (5-2). With Taysom Hill still in the concussion protocol, the journeyman Trevor Siemian will start at quarterback against the Falcons (3-4). While Coach Sean Payton and the offense adapt to yet another quarterback change, the Saints will lean on their defense, which has allowed the league’s second-lowest points total (128).
They will be able to focus on containing Atlanta’s rookie tight end, Kyle Pitts, since the Falcons will be without receiver Calvin Ridley, who stepped away from the team to attend to his mental health. Pick: Saints -6
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m., CBS
The Patriots (4-4) are riding a two-game win streak on the strength of an offense that’s found a rhythm, and a schedule that’s hit a weak stretch. Damien Harris has rushed for 100 yards in two of the last three games and has scored a touchdown in four consecutive weeks. Hunter Henry, one of two tight ends the Patriots signed in free agency this off-season, has scored a touchdown in four of the last five games, and the rookie quarterback Mac Jones has looked more comfortable under center.
The Panthers (4-4), may be without Sam Darnold, who was cleared from concussion protocol Saturday but is questionable with a shoulder injury, It’s unlikely that his backup, P.J. Walker, will find much success against a Bill Belichick defense. Pick: Patriots -3.5
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., CBS
The spread, while lopsided, is about right. The Bills (5-2) are one of the best teams in the N.F.L. while the Jaguars (1-6) are one of the worst. Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense should have their way with a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (278.1). Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense will struggle against the Bills’ top-ranked defense (1,883 yards allowed). Bet on Buffalo with confidence. Pick: Bills -14.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Giants, 1 p.m., CBS
The Raiders (5-2) are talented enough offensively to score frequently against the Giants (2-6), while Daniel Jones could again be without his top targets, who were forced out of last week’s loss to Kansas City by injuries — Sterling Shepard (quad), Kadarius Toney (thumb) and Dante Pettis (shoulder). It’s also unknown if Kenny Golladay (knee) will return from a three-game absence.
Las Vegas should cover the spread relatively smoothly, even without receiver Henry Ruggs III, whom the team released Tuesday because of his role in a fatal car crash. Pick: Raiders -2.5
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m., Fox
Don’t expect The Vikings (3-4) to contain the Ravens (5-2) after they could not even beat Dallas’s backup quarterback last week. Lamar Jackson is not Cooper Rush, and Jackson should salivate over competing against Minnesota’s defense, which allowed Rush to throw for 325 yards. Baltimore receiver Sammy Watkins (hamstring) will be a game-time decision while running back Latavius Murray (ankle) is doubtful after not practicing on Friday. Pick: Ravens -5.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:05 p.m., CBS
Fans of the Chargers (4-3) should start to be concerned. The defense has allowed the second-most rushing yards this season (1,116), a flaw that has been on display in back-to-back losses. The Eagles (3-5) had their best rushing game of the season against the Lions last week, running for 236 yards without the starting back Miles Sanders (ankle), who was placed on injured reserve.
Chargers Coach Brandon Staley is considered one of the best defensive minds in the league, but expect opponents to exploit his team on the ground until he adjusts. The underdog Eagles could ride Boston Scott and Jordan Howard to an upset. Pick: Eagles +1.5
Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Justin Fields’s highlight touchdown scramble last Sunday happened because the Bears’ offensive line, which has allowed the most sacks in the N.F.L. (30), again broke down and forced the rookie quarterback to escape the pocket.
The Bears (3-5) drafted Fields 11th overall this year in part because of his ability to make unscripted plays, but Chicago’s faulty pass protection leaves him without other options. The Steelers (4-3) traded the pass rusher Melvin Ingram to Kansas City this week, and even without him, Pittsburgh should rattle the young passer and cover the spread. Pick: Steelers -6.5
We picked the Jets to cover the spread, at Colts -10.5, thinking inconsistent play from Colts quarterback Carson Wentz and another strong performance from Mike White as he filled in for Zach Wilson would at least keep the score close. We picked wrong . The Colts won, 45-30, behind three passing touchdowns from Wentz and 172 rushing yards and a score from running back Jonathan Taylor. The Colts’ Nyheim Hines rushed for 74 yards and a touchdown.
White, making his second start as Wilson’s knee heals, injured his forearm and left the game in the first half. Josh Johnson, a veteran journeyman, stepped in and played well, throwing for 317 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Still, it’s hard for a team to win a game, or even cover a spread, when its defense allows 260 rushing yards. That won’t help an offense adjusting to quarterback instability.
A quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Raiders -5.5, for example, means that Las Vegas must beat Chicago by at least 6 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.

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N.F.L. | N.F.L. Week 3 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread
N.F.L. Week 3 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread
Published Sept. 23, 2021 Updated Oct. 14, 2021
The Bucs and Rams preview a potential N.F.C. championship matchup, Aaron Rodgers will try to keep the good vibes going against the 49ers, and Justin Fields takes over the Bears offense.
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Here’s our NFL Week 11 picks against the spread and predictions
Four of the six prime time games in this young N.F.L. season were decided by one score. Lamar Jackson’s plunge to convert a fourth down and seal Baltimore’s win over Kansas City capped Week 2. Most teams that lost in Week 1 fought back to .500, but the weekend yielded a long list of injuries with at least four starting quarterbacks having either been ruled out or questionable to play in Week 3.
That means that divisional rivals will try to eke out an edge in the early standings, a slew of replacement quarterbacks will try to prove their worth and a potential N.F.C. championship preview will be on display in Los Angeles.
Here’s a look at N.F.L. Week 3, with all picks made against the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m., Fox
A battle between undefeated teams makes predicting this outcome the toughest choice of the week. Both the Rams (2-0) and the Buccaneers (2-0) rank in the top 10 in passing yards and top five in passing touchdowns.
But the Bucs’ secondary is young and has struggled with injuries, so the team reached out to the veteran free agent cornerback Richard Sherman after placing starter Sean Murphy-Bunting on injured reserve. Rams Coach Sean McVay will look to have Matthew Stafford unload downfield, and that aggression against a secondary in flux may be just enough for the Rams to win. Pick: Rams +1
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City, 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Kansas City -6.5 | Total: 55.5
404 yards. That’s the amount of rushing yardage Kansas City’s defense has surrendered through two games. That’s … not good. But the Chargers (1-1) are a pass-first team, as evinced by Justin Herbert tying Mahomes and Dan Marino for the most 300-yard passing games through a player’s first two seasons (10). Herbert could break that record Sunday against Kansas City (1-1).
That’s doable based on his two performances against Kansas City last season, the first an overtime loss in which Herbert threw for 311 yards and a touchdown and earned the starting job. (Herbert had 302 yards and three touchdowns in a Week 17 win in which Kansas City rested some starters.) If Los Angeles’ running backs can at least keep the Chiefs honest, the Chargers will be able to at least keep this one close. Pick: Chargers +6.5
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBS
Carson Wentz’s sprained ankles (yes, both ankles) mean the Colts (0-2) could potentially start Jacob Eason, a second-year quarterback, against Tennessee. Eason’s margin for error will be small against the Titans (1-1), who are coming off an overtime win in Seattle where Derrick Henry’s 182 rushing yards on 35 carries reminded everyone how effective Tennessee is at clock control.
The strength of Indianapolis’ defense is its defensive lineman and linebackers, who could frustrate Tennessee’s rushing attack, but Eason’s inexperience could lead to turnovers and give Henry more opportunity to score. Pick: Titans -5
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Packers (1-1) and San Francisco (2-0) use similar offensive strategies that rely on motion and a strong running game to set up the pass. The 49ers’ running back room, though, has been decimated by injuries, most recently with JaMycal Hasty ruled out with a high ankle sprain and Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) and Trey Sermon (concussion), questionable for Sunday night.
Both teams allowed the Lions to play competitive first halves before pulling away. Now facing each other, if the 49ers’ rotating cast of running backs starts slow, the healthy Packers roster could take advantage. Pick: Packers + 3.5
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots, 1 p.m., Fox
Who dat? Saints fans must be asking themselves that question after a shellacking last week at Carolina, where running back Alvin Kamara was limited to only 32 all-purpose yards and Jameis Winston threw two interceptions.
The Patriots’ defense is more experienced than Carolina’s, and could find similar success against a Saints (1-1) team trying to find its new identity in the post-Drew Brees era. The Patriots and Coach Bill Belichick may have fans asking more questions afterward. Pick: Patriots -3
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Vikings (0-2) have played competitively so far this season, and could easily be 2-0. They face a Seahawks (1-1) defense that allowed the Titans to score 21 second-half points en route to a Tennessee victory in Week 2. Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins have thrown for more than 240 yards in each of their games and if both Minnesota and Seattle play to form, this game will be a shoot out. That gives the Vikings hope to at least cover the spread. Pick: Vikings +2
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m., Fox
Bears fans finally got what they cheered for.
After quarterback Andy Dalton injured his knee on a scramble last week, Coach Matt Nagy said the rookie Justin Fields will start Sunday against the Browns (1-1). Excitement over Fields dominated training camp and the preseason, and he could slide in as starter for the Bears (1-1).
He’ll need to play well to match the Browns, who have scored at least 28 points in their first two games. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry must miss at least three games on injured reserve with a knee injury. But Coach Kevin Stefanski confirmed Friday that receiver Odell Beckham Jr. will make his 2021 debut after he missed the first two weeks of the season to allow his surgically-repaired knee to heal. That added boost, along with the defense flustering the rookie quarterback, makes it difficult to bet against the Browns Pick: Browns -7.5
Atlanta Falcons at Giants, 1 p.m., FOX
If Saquon Barkley’s limited production through the first two weeks (83 rushing yards on 23 carries) continues, then Daniel Jones may find success against the Falcons (0-2), whose defense has allowed eight passing touchdowns. Jones must continue to protect the ball, as he did last week, and his receivers cannot drop touchdowns, as Darius Slayton did last week against Washington.
Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan has already thrown three interceptions and it’s clear that the Falcons are in rebuilding mode. The Giants (0-2), while still winless, are hoping to compete in the N.F.C. East so it’s reasonable to think they’ll be fired up to get a win at home. But considering the Giants’ unpredictability with mistakes and penalties, the Falcons could at least make this one competitive. Pick: Falcons +3
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., Fox
Winning in the N.F.L. is hard. It is unlikely that the first-time N.F.L. coach Urban Meyer and the rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence — two men who rarely lost in college — will find it any easier to get their first N.F.L. win against the Cardinals (2-0).
Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray has made an early case for the Most Valuable Player Award, ranking second in total passing yards (689) and touchdowns (7). His aerial onslaught should continue against the Jaguars (0-2) whose defense has allowed nearly 300 passing yards in each of their first two games. The Jaguars’ team Twitter account this week posted a message from Meyer that promised, “we’re going to get better.” He didn’t say it’d be this week. Pick: Cardinals -7.5
Washington Footballers at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., Fox
This isn’t the Giants’ defense that Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke torched for 336 yards. Heinicke and the Football Team (1-1) will collide with a Buffalo defense that has not allowed an opposing team to throw for 200 yards. Against
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