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Monday Night Pick Against Spread
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Vinnie Iyer
11/29/2020
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NFL picks, predictions against spread Week 12: Chiefs edge Bucs; Eagles stun Seahawks; Raiders rebound
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Our Week 11 picks and predictions straight up and against the spread can be summed up in one word: Bru-tal. Injury effects and wild last-minute finishes all didn't go in the right way, leading to the toughest results of the season.
There's only one way to overcome what just happened — focus on doing better with the next set of pigskin prognostications. It's time to remain fearless with Sporting News' weekly pro football forecast, diving headfirst into every upcoming matchup.
Week 12 brings up a lot of close lines, starting with two games on Thanksgiving Thursday. Here's to your health and here's to being more feast than famine with the picks. This week, we get a full heaping of 16 games with no teams on bye:
Game of the Week: Chiefs (-3, 53 o/u) at Buccaneers
The Chiefs are coming off a thrilling, emotional last-minute comeback win over the Raiders. The Buccaneers are coming off a short week with a physical Monday night game against the Rams. This game simply comes down to whether you like Patrick Mahomes and his weapons to outperform Tom Brady and his. At this point, counting against Mahomes is a mistake. He'll be under less pressure than Brady and will come through with another clutch fourth-quarter drive.
Pick: Chiefs win 31-27 and cover the spread.
NFC Game of the Week: Bears at Packers (-8, 45 o/u)
The Packers know they will have red-hot Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, trying to make up for the Colts loss by finishing better. The Bears don't know if they will have Nick Foles, MItchell Trubisky or Tyler Bray at quarterback. Coming off a bye helps for a strong Chicago defense, but the offense will cost the distant second-place team in the NFC North another prime-time division game.
Pick: Packers win 27-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Bills (-5.5, 54 o/u) over Chargers
The Bills are coming off a bye and should have their offense revved up around Josh Allen to attack a Chargers' secondary that's really struggling. Justin Herbert will duel him well, but he's also going into a hostile environment with some weather concerns on a cross-country trip against a Buffalo defense that can dial up some good pressure.
Pick: Bills win 34-17 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Eagles over Seahawks (-5.5, 51 o/u)
The Eagles desperately need this game to hold off the pack of even weaker NFC East teams behind them. They came through with a key win over the 49ers earlier and get that result here at home in prime time. The Seahawks are much more vulnerable on the road defensively. Wentz uses all his weapons and running style to outduel Russell Wilson with some help from his defense, too.
The Dolphins need to shake off that bad loss against the Broncos and resettle at quarterback with Tua Tagovailoa. The good news is they did pitch a shutout against the Jets the first time. The bad news is New York seems to playing with a little more life to keep from going winless. Miami still wins on the strength of the defense, but it's another grind offensively to edge a team led by former coach Adam Gase.
Pick: Dolphins win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Cardinals (-2.5, 49.5 o/u) at Patriots
The Cardinals profile very similarly to the Texans, who just ripped the Patriots with a running QB and big pass plays all over the field. Kyler Murray is hard to stop and the Patriots' front seven is not equipped to do so with limited speed. They also will have trouble contaning DeAndre Hopkins downfield. The Cardinals' defense has a lot of holes, but they pick spots to slow down and stop Cam Newton.
Pick: Cardinals win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Panthers at Vikings (-4.5, 49.5 o/u)
The Vikings' defense put them in a tough spot again in the loss to the Cowboys. They need to get ahead of the game script and blast Dalvin Cook to a big lead. The Panthers' run defense is terrible, so you can bet Cook will be fed all day to compensate for the Dallas experience. Teddy Bridgewater, if he returns from his knee injury as expected, has a nice chance for a good "revenge" game, but Cook's constant chunk running will put this game out of reach in the end.
Pick: Vikings win 31-24 and cover the spread.
The Titans' offense woke up with a monster day from Derrick Henry to come back and clip the Ravens. The Colts' mighty defense is a different story, coming off the confidence of a Week 10 beatdown in Nashville. The Titans' defense still isn't very good and slowing down in many aspects, while Philip Rivers is suddenly red-hot. He delivers again as Ryan Tannehill goes back to slumping.
Pick: Colts win 27-20 and cover the spread.
The Browns won't mess around in this game where weather won't be a factor, unlike their past three home games. Look for them to trust in a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the running and short passing games, with a few calculated high-percentage big-play passes from Baker Mayfield. The Browns' defense rallied around Myles Garrett's absence last week and does it again this week, facing Mike Glennon.
Pick: Browns win 30-20 and cover the spread.
The Giants get a massive break after the bye as Daniel Jones has a much better chance of outdueling Brandon Allen on the road than Joe Burrow. The Giants' defense is well rested and will go hard after Allen, forcing sacks and mistakes. The Bengals' defense is ill-equipped to stop any of Jones' versatile weapons.
Pick: Giants win 23-17 and cover the spread.
The Raiders will shake off that Mahomes magic loss of Week 11 in style with a strong road trip to the NFC South. Derek Carr is playing too well to be contained by the Falcons awful pass coverage with no rush behind it, taking advantage when they blitz. Matt Ryan can't seem to keep his key receivers healthy and now his offensive line and running game are crumbling at the wrong time for an improving, youthful defense.
Pick: Raiders win 31-27 and cover the spread.
The Ravens are going into this road game reeling from the devastating loss to the Titans and have new COVID-19 concerns (Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins). Lamar Jackson is coming off a rough home game and the Steelers' defense won't make things any easier on the road in this rematch. Pittsburgh found its balance and explosiveness last week while Baltimore's once nasty defense keeps wilting everywhere.
Pick: Steelers win 27-20 and cover the spread.
The 49ers will still have Nick Mullens starting at quarterback but they should be healthier in their skill support at running back and wide receiver. Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh would have game-planned well during the bye for a team they were able to beat when healthy in Week 5. With the 49ers rested and the Rams tired from Monday night, look for a tighter rematch than expected at SoFi Stadium.
Pick: Rams win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Taysom Hill shined in his home debut as a starting quarterback, but now goes to a hostile road environment in the elements, back in Mountain West country. The Broncos woke up defensively with a good pass rush and more respectable run defense. They tend to play better at home while the Saints, Drew Brees or not, aren't the best west- and outdoor-traveling team. They still survive with the better running game and the superior run defense.
Pick: Saints win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Game of the Midweek I: Texans (-2.5, -51.5) at Lions
The Texans have Deshaun Watson cooking with gas with all of his wide receivers and is also feeling it as a runner. They have great confidence offensively after having their way with the Patriots. They draw a weaker defense this week and their run defense will get another break, assuming D'Andre Swift misses another game with a concussion. Houston has been more motivated without Bill O'Brien while Detroit is now going through the motions with Matt Patricia.
Pick: Texans win 27-24 and cover the spread.
Andy Dalton finally played well filling in for Dak Prescott, a far cry from his first effort against Washington. The Cowboys also got their running game going with Ezekiel Elliott to help and also played more inspired defense against the Vikings. Dalton has more weapons than Alex Smith and Dallas evens the season series at home to resurrect its NFC East chances.
Pick: Cowboys win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Over the weekend, Rory McIlroy got pulled into Patrick Reed’s mess when Reed brought up his name amid accusations of cheating. It was an ordeal that left McIlroy second-guessing himself. Reed faced cheating accusations after he picked up his ball without verification from a rules official. Reed, who went on to win the tournament, declared his approach shot on the 10th hole as embedded after a volunteer told him that she didn’t see it bounce.
thinks venturing into the world of boxing is disrespectful to the sport. MMA fighter Collard, who recently laced up the gloves to start a pro boxing career in 2017, has found success in the ring, amassing a record of 9-3-3. While Collard has captured plenty of headlines for…
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Before we get into breaking down the upcoming Buffalo/New England game on Monday night, I need to talk about what it’s like as a handicapper to put your research and methods in motion and to come up with a wager that you believe is going to cash for you. I wrote 900 words last week on why and how the Steelers are going to bounce-back against the Bengals and throttle them. I went through my usual methods and believed that the Steelers, despite laying almost two-touchdowns on the road to a division rival, were the right play.
For a second consecutive Monday night, we have a divisional showdown out of the AFC North, this time between the once undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers and the lowly Cincinnati Bengals. This game is going to have some big shoes to fill in order to duplicate the massively entertaining Ravens/Browns game we got last week. And unfortunately for bettors and football fans, I don’t see that happening.
Don’t look now, but we are running hot. We’ve correctly predicted the last six Monday Night Football games, including both games last week when we took Washington plus the points and Buffalo on the moneyline. This week, we try to extend our winning streak to seven games as we have to choose from a very pivotal game in the AFC North between the Ravens and the Browns. Both of these teams come into this game having won their last game, but it’s the Browns who are among the hottest teams in the league, having won four straight contests.
COVID-19 struck again in the National Football League, this time postponing the Pittsburgh/Baltimore game that was scheduled for the primetime Thanksgiving Day slot. That game was originally pushed to Sunday, then to Tuesday, before finally taking place on Wednesday afternoon. Because of that, the Steelers Week 13 game got pushed to Monday night, which means we have a Monday night doubleheader for the third time this season. From a betting standpoint and a football fan’s point of view, the more football the better, and another double-dip on Monday night isn’t the worst thing in the world.
Happy belated Thanksgiving to all my American friends out there. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving holiday filled with tons of turkey, cold beer and winning bets. As a Canadian, I didn’t have any turkey on Thursday, but I did see a pretty massive one wandering up and down the Cowboy’s sideline disguised as a coach. Yes, that’s right, Mike McCarthy got roasted to a crisp on Thursday for his team’s effort and bonehead play calling.
If I played defense or special teams for the Chicago Bears, I would be livid with the state of the team. The defense was able to earn two turnovers against the Vikings and hold them to under 20 points. The special teams unit – aka Cordarrelle Patterson – returned the second-half kickoff 104-yards to the house to give the Bears a 13-7 lead. From there, the Bears never scored again and had four straight three and outs.
If anyone of you watched last Monday’s football game between the New England Patriots and New York Jets and are still baffled as to how the hell the Patriots won, you are not alone. Prior to the game, I wrote about 1,000 words talking about how the Patriots, specifically Bill Belichick may be better off “letting” the Jets win in order to do their part in trying to keep Trevor Lawrence (if he opts for the draft) out of the conference for the next decade.
The NFL trade deadline has come and gone and for another year we saw very little movement by way of offensive stars. Sure, some teams got the defensive help they required, but unlike in the NBA or NHL, the NFL trade deadline is usually a dud. What should be talked about however, is the posturing for draft positions for the upcoming NFL draft. There are three teams with one win and the lowly Jets with no wins on the season.
If you’re a Monday Night Football fan, the next few weeks, including last week, might be painful to watch. If the Bucs’ offense doesn’t hold up their end of the bargain in this contest, we’ll likely be in for another dull affair similar to the Bears/Rams last week. The next “good” Monday Night Football game we should see happens in Week 11 as the Rams travel to Tampa to take on the Bucs. Next week, we get the Patriots at Jets, and the following week we get the Vikings at the Bears. Not exactly must-see TV unless you have wagered on it. And if you’re reading this piece, I’ll assume you will.
I think I speak for the majority of football fans and bettors when I saw that the Monday Night doubleheader is the exact thing we are clamoring for. We can do away with the Thursday night snooze fest which we witnessed this past week. The Monday night doubleheader not only gives us several additional betting options, but it gets the week going with plenty of added talking points. Last week, the Chiefs and Cardinals were both victorious on the road, and both teams covered their respective spreads.
COVID-19 struck again in the National Football League, this time postponing the Denver/New England game that was scheduled for Week 5 and forcing the Bills and Titans to play on Tuesday in just the second ever Tuesday night football game. The ramifications of that Tuesday game are evident here as the Chiefs and Bills saw their Thursday night game pushed to Monday night, which means this coming week we have an NFL doubleheader.
Last week, when the Falcons traveled to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers, I said that we are betting the number and not the team. While I took the Falcons +7.5 and lost, I still believe it was the right side to be on. I mean, the Packers needed a three (!!) touchdown performance from Robert Tonyan (I know you googled him) to beat the lowly Falcons. At one point, the Falcons had a 20-play drive and came away with a measly three points. The Falcons should have covered that game but are simply incapable of doing anything well this season. On to the next.
Three Monday Night Football games, three noteworthy results. This time it was the Chiefs who made the headlines for their dominant offensive display against a Ravens’ team that just flat out didn’t have any answers on either side of the ball. It was a shocking display from the Ravens, not only because I chose them as my play for this piece, but because I thought they needed to win this game more than the Chiefs in order to have the opportunity to host the AFC Championship Game should they get there.
Two weeks into the Monday Night Football schedule and fans have got to be pretty pleased with the level of play we’ve seen across eight quarters of football. Last week, the Raiders opened up their new stadium with a win against the Saints, and it was a great game from kick-off to the final whistle. I recommended a play on the Raiders +5.5, and that cashed as they didn’t even need the points, hitting as +210 moneyline underdogs.
One Monday Night Football game, one controversy. As if the 2020 season would have started any other way. Last Monday, we saw the Los Angeles Rams sneak by the Dallas Cowboys thanks to a very questionable offensive pass-interference call that went against Dallas with time running down in the fourth quarter.
There is a lot on the line for both teams in this one. Coming in, Green Bay is one of four teams atop the NFC at 11-3, and Minnesota is a game back at 10-4. The Packers have locked up a playoff spot already and can clinch the division with a win here. They need to win out to give themselves the best shot at a bye in the first week of the playoffs.
Well, I have no one to blame but myself for going 0-2 on my picks for the Week 14 Monday night game between the Eagles and Giants from Philly. I didn't like Philadelphia as double-digit favorite but gave a 7.5-point alternate line instead and went over the total of 47. Sometimes, the weather absolutely should change your mind on certain picks.
Finally got a NFL spread pick right on a Monday night game as we recommended the Seattle Seahawks giving 2.5 points against the visiting Minnesota Vikings to conclude Week 13, and Russell Wilson continued his amazing run of prime-time success with a 37-30 victory. Tale of two halves as the Vikings were up 17-10 at the break and then allowed 24 straight points before making things interesting late. Pretty shocked there were 67 points scored between two run-heavy clubs with two very good defenses; I liked the under 49.
That's it for me this season recommending backing either Los Angeles football team in a prime-time game! The Chargers burned me two weeks in a row and the Rams embarrassed me and themselves in a 45-6 hope wipeout Monday night against the Lamar Jacksons (Baltimore Ravens). It was the Rams' worst-ever loss at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, and it could have easily been 62-6 had the Ravens not sat Jackson for the fourth quarter.
Well, I'm done from a betting perspective with Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers for the rest of this season and probably his career - frankly, after how bad Rivers has been in back-to-back prime-time games and losses, I'm not even sure the Chargers will try and re-sign him this offseason. On Thursday in Week 10, Rivers' three interceptions and complete inability to move his team in the final minute with a full assortment of timeouts cost me a Bolts bet in Oakland. On Monday,
Free Play from Doc’s Sports.
Take Under 7 Receptions (-125)
for Tyreek Hill in Super Bowl
55 (6:30p.m., Sunday, February
7 CBS) We have betting that
Tyreek Hill will have less
than receptions in Super Bowl
55. If he gets exactly 7
catches, this bet will be
graded as a push and you will
get your money bank. Hill had
a monster game against Tampa
Bay in the first game on 11/29
and you can bet Coach Bowles
will make some adjustments for
this game. Hill has only gone
over 7 catches 5 times over
out the 17 games he played
this season. He will likely
get a big play with his speed
but remember that only counts
as just one reception. Take
the under in this prop bet. Do
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