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DailyFX.com - Talking Points: - USDOLLAR Index rebounds at former symmetrical triangle resistance. - USD/JPY primed to have an uninspiring day. - As market volatility is set to rise with summer ending, its a good time to review risk management principles . The key issue surrounding todays August US Nonfarm Payrolls report is whether or not the US labor market is strong enough to justify a Fed rate hike in September. Current expectations for todays data are modest, with the Unemployment Rate expected to edge slightly lower to 4.8%, and the headline jobs figure to come in at +180K. See the DailyFX economic calendar for today for the rest of the data previews. Another modest print may prove to be better for the US Dollar rather than for risky assets (higher yielding currencies, equities, and high yield debt): a signs that the US labor market is still chugging along (albeit at a moderated pace as full employment is reached) means the Fed will be more likely to hike. Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen and FRB of San Francisco President John Williams have both said that breakeven jobs growth is only around +100K per month, for what its worth. After Fed Chair Janet Yellens speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium last Friday, it seems that markets are in agreement with the notion that the Fed will hike at least once this year: but there is only one rate hike being priced in, due in December (table 1 below). Table 1: Fed Funds Futures Contract Implied Probabilities: September 2, 2016 Preview for August NFPs and Implications for USD-pairs A stronger NFP print (>+200K) can help bring forward rate expectations, which should help the USDOLLAR Index establish itself back above the key 12000/05 area. A weaker or middling report will do little to convince markets that a hike is coming this month (and unlikely to be in November, when the Fed doesnt release its updated SEP). The US Dollar just needs another Goldilocks report (+150-199K) to convince market participants that a September hike is more likely than currently anticipated. See the above video for a technical review of the USDOLLAR Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD. Read more: GBP in the Driver’s Seat Today, Giving USDOLLAR Pause Pre-NFPs --- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX To be added to Christophers e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form original source DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM . View comments
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