Microsoft Week 11 Nfl Spread Bets Pick

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Microsoft Week 11 Nfl Spread Bets Pick
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Nov 18, 2018
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After a week of monster spreads, Week 11 is stacking up to be a week of close matchups and potentially dramatic finishes. The Seahawks and Packers got things started in that vein with Seattle's comeback victory on Thursday night, but now we turn to key divisional games such as Vikings-Bears, Bengals-Ravens and Titans-Colts before the Chiefs and Rams figure to bring all the fireworks on Monday night.
We'll take you game by game to reveal how our experts picked the lines earlier in the week while also sharing our thoughts on survivor pool picks for Week 11 and showing you all the great places you can find NFL picks talk throughout the week. Let's get to it.
"With the Steelers winning five straight and Jaguars losing five straight, there's going to be some value in this line as the public keeps adjusting their perceptions of each team. But how can the Steelers be 5.5-point road favorites against a team that beat them twice last year? They'll be coming into this game looking for revenge, sure, but the Jags know they have what it takes to beat this team, and they're certain to feel disrespected by the expectations that they're going to get blown out here." -- R.J. White on his SuperContest picks for Week 11
I'm 1-0 so far this week after the Seahawks managed to cover the 2.5-point spread on Thursday. You can get all five of my contest picks at SportsLine, and use promo code WHITE to get your first month of access for just $1.
"Carolina got bullied by the Steelers, but the extra rest from that Thursday night beatdown will help them here. The Lions cannot protect Matt Stafford, they are going to struggle more on offense without Golden Tate . These are the kinds of lesser teams the Panthers beat up on." -- Jason La Canfora on his best bets
La Canfora is only taking two teams as best bets this week, and you can find out which other side he likes in his Friday column.
"This is a classic sandwich game for the Cowboys. They beat the Eagles Sunday night, play this one, and then play the Redskins on Thanksgiving Day. That's a tough swing. The Falcons are home for the first time in three weeks, and they are a much better team at home. The Falcons are 3-1 straight up and against the spread in the last four at home against the Cowboys. Make it 4-1 for both." -- Pete Prisco on his best bets
Prisco is 11-4 on his best bets over the last three weeks, and if you want to follow along while he's hot, check out who else he likes in his Week 11 best bets column.
"The last time Hue Jackson was in Cincinnati, he was the offensive coordinator (2014-15), which could make things awkward for the current offensive coordinator (Bill Lazor), especially if the Bengals struggle at all on offense over the next few weeks. Hue will likely make some suggestions and then take zero responsibility if they go wrong (If we learned one thing about Jackson during his "I just got fired" media tour, it's that he'll throw anyone under the bus for anything ). The good news for the Bengals is that I don't think anyone is going to be thrown under any buses this week, because Cincinnati is going to win." -- John Breech on his Week 11 picks
Breech predicts the score of every game each Tuesday, and he correctly had the Seahawks winning by three points on Thursday while almost nailing the final score on the nose. Check out his thoughts on the other two primetime games and his predictions for the rest of the slate.
"The idea that everyone, both public and the sharps, is on Tennessee terrifies me. The Titans are a really good team and Marcus Mariota is starting to get things really rolling on offense the last two weeks as he's gotten on the same page with Matt LaFleur. But this is another case of Indy and Andrew Luck being undervalued. The Colts offensive line is playing excellent football led by Quenton Nelson , and Frank Reich is dialed in as a play caller right now. The Colts can win this division and with Tennessee coming off its midseason Super Bowl after a win over the Patriots at home, I like the Colts to come out and win this game." -- Pick Six Podcast host Will Brinson on his best bets
Brinson is out to a 1-0 start in his best bets after taking the Seahawks on Thursday. Find out who else he's backing in his Friday column.
"Houston has won six straight after losing their first three games of the season. They've also been one of the luckiest teams in the NFL this season. Now they're coming off a bye and favored on the road against the Redskins. I'm not sure they should be. It's not that I believe the Redskins to be a juggernaut. In fact, the Redskins strike me as a team that's similar to the Texans. If anything they're the ones that should be favored in this game, so if you're getting three points, it's hard to turn them down." -- Tom Fornelli on his best bets
Fornelli went 2-1 on his best bets last week and nailed his SportsLine bonus pick as well, and here's who else he's taking to stay hot this weekend.
R.J. White: "I look at the motivation factor of this game. The Giants staff isn't going anywhere, they're building for the future. The players know this staff is in place, they're trying to secure a place on the team for next year. This Tampa staff is one foot out the door, the players there know they don't have to listen to these guys anymore. ... This Tampa team seems like it's falling apart, this Giants team seems like it could be a little stronger in the second half than we think because of that motivation factor."
Will Brinson: "First of all, the Giants are coming back from San Francisco, where they played a -- I don't care what you say, it was an emotional Monday night win ... I think it ends up being a shootout, and it comes down to one fluke play here or there, and I'll take Tampa for variance sake because they lost last week and the Giants won."
White: "If it comes down to one fluke play, you're going to take the team that's worst in turnovers on both sides of the ball?"
Brinson: "I'm gonna take the team that just lost, instead of the team that just won on primetime."
White: "Tampa gets done in by fluke plays all the time, I think if you're gonna base your theory on one fluke play, you want to be going against Tampa, not with them."
Brinson: "Pete, you're a fluke play, what do you think about this game?"
Pete Prisco: "Look, I'm with R.J. I like the Giants, they're playing better football. The Giants showed some life last week on the road, and I know San Francisco stinks but the Bucs are packing it in. They know the coach is going, their linebackers are all banged up in this game, [Saquon] Barkley's gonna run wild."
That's from the Friday edition of the Pick Six Podcast, hosted by Will Brinson five days a week. You can check it out below and get our thoughts on the entire NFL slate. Remember to click the button to subscribe!
"I've been saying for a couple weeks now that I think the Chargers are the second-best team in the AFC. Their two losses have come against the Chiefs and Rams. They should be able to take care of business against a Broncos team that has lost six of its past seven games. Look for Melvin Gordon to run all over the Broncos, who are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game and the eighth-most yards per rushing attempt. Unfortunately for their Super Bowl hopes, they're stuck in the same division as the Chiefs, which means they'll probably slot in as a wild card team." -- Sean Wagner-McGough on his best bets
Wagner-McGough is 30-19-1 in his best bets column this year, so you should head over and find out who else he likes in Week 11.
With how the Cardinals played over the first half of the season, there's no way you'd expect someone advocating making them your survivor pool pick in Week 11. But that's exactly what I'm going to do. The offense has played much better with the switch to Byron Leftwich at offensive coordinator, and the next time the Raiders defense gets a stop will be the first. The Cardinals defense has quietly been one of the best in the league, and I don't expect Oakland to score much on the road in this matchup. And while the Cardinals are only the third-biggest favorite of the week, the Raiders aren't as frisky of an underdog as the Eagles or Broncos. This will be the only chance you have to use the Cards this year; might as well take it and save the better teams left in your arsenal for the final six weeks.
SportsLine expert Mike Tierney shares his thoughts on survivor pool play for Week 11 over at SportsLine, and considering he's at 72 percent straight up on all games over the last seven weeks, you might want to listen.
"Everyone has buried the Eagles after last week's home loss to Dallas, while everyone is crowning the Saints as the NFL's best team. While the latter might be true, the former isn't, and while the Saints might win, the number is too big for them to cover. Carson Wentz puts up huge numbers and Philly falls inside the number." -- CBS Sports HQ host Nick Kostos on his best bets
Kostos is rolling in the Las Vegas SuperContest with a 29-21 record as competitors chase a $1.4 million payout in the world's biggest NFL picks competition. He's joined by a cavalcade of NFL betting experts each Sunday at noon ET for SportsLine's NFL preview, where the team goes through the NFL slate each week and shares what you have to know before placing your bets. Be sure to join them at noon ET on Sunday over at CBS Sports HQ , your 24/7 home for news, analysis, Fantasy and gambling insight, and more.
"Minnesota's defense is getting healthy and Mitchell Trubisky will not have a good game Sunday night. Dalvin Cook came back before the bye and had 109 yards from scrimmage. That really helps their offense, which already has two top-flight wideouts and a good tight end. The Vikings are better than Chicago and they're getting points." -- Hammerin' Hank Goldberg on his best bets
Goldberg hit a 6-1 parlay on his best bets last week, so you'll want to check out who else he's confident will cover in Week 11 at SportsLine.
Vegas legend Micah Roberts has worked in the Las Vegas sportsbook industry for 20 years, including a 13-year run as Station Casinos' book director. Armed with an unmatched network of sources, Roberts has started the 2018 NFL season strong. He's on a 27-17 run picking NFL odds, and has been especially adept at picking games involving Kansas City. Since joining SportsLine as a handicapper, Roberts is on an epic 14-3 run picking Chiefs games.
Roberts has a strong play on this game, and you can read all about it over at SportsLine.
Thanks for checking us out, and good luck with your picks in Week 11!
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NFL Week 11 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread - The New York Times
NFL Week 11 odds, picks , schedule: Expert picks against the spread ...
NFL Week 11 Picks : Schedule, Odds And Expert Predictions Against The Spread
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PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - NOVEMBER 03: Carson Wentz #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles looks to pass ... [+] in the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Lincoln Financial Field on November 03, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season is nearly here and the schedule starts off with an AFC North affair between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football . The Browns are expected to pick up a rare win in this series, opening as three-point favorites at home. That’s far from the only small spread in Week 11, as the slate is chock-full of games with narrow odds and plenty of potential for excitement.
Sunday’s 12-game schedule includes some great matchups, including a loaded early afternoon timeslot with eight games starting at 1 p.m. ET that is headlined by the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Houston Texans in a battle of AFC playoff contenders. Baltimore is favored by the oddsmakers to nab a victory, but Houston is one of the hotter teams in football with four wins in its last five games. The late afternoon has just three games kicking off in the window, but fans won’t want to miss a minute of the Super Bowl LII rematch between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles. The books like New England to get revenge, but Philly outright won as an underdog the last time these teams shared the gridiron. That game will lead into a thrilling Sunday Night Football showdown between two of the top teams in the NFC last year, the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams. Both sides have been underperforming during the 2019 NFL season and are desperate for a win, one that will surely impact the postseason picture. Week 11 finally winds down with the AFC West taking center stage on Monday Night Football , where the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers will duke it out for a critical “W” with the division still wide-open for the taking.
It is pertinent for those in picks pools or even just betting against the spread to make smart decisions as the campaign barrels towards a riveting finish. There are only seven weeks left, which doesn’t leave much time left for those that need to get ahead in their pools or up on the bookies. Fortunately for readers, Jon Price of SportsInformationTraders.com is here to help you make smart, informed decisions when wagering on the action and the pro handicapper has once again provided his top picks for the week. Before seeing which teams the Vegas expert is predicting to win, take a look at the complete schedule, kickoff start times, TV channels, live stream sites, updated odds, key betting trends and more for Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season.
Week 11 Byes: Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans
Thursday Night Football live streamed via Amazon Prime , Sunday Night Football via NBC Sports and Monday Night Football via WatchESPN
New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles
This is a game that many have had circled on the calendar since the 2019 NFL season schedule was announced, as it will allow the New England Patriots their first chance to redeem themselves against the Philadelphia Eagles after they were upset in Super Bowl LII at the end of the 2017 campaign. Oddsmakers opened the Eagles as three-point home underdogs for the contest, but that line has since moved to NE -3.5 after heavy public support for the visitors. As of Wednesday evening, the Patriots are garnering a whopping 80% of the total bets and 75% of the money wagered against the spread. New England is drawing plenty of action despite historically poor ATS performances against Philadelphia, as franchise is just 2-7 ATS in the nine games played since 1987 and 0-2 both SU and ATS in the two most recent matchups.
The total has been more polarizing for the public, with 54% of the tickets on the over but 52% of the cash on the under. Despite this relatively even split, the line has dropped from an opening mark of 46 points to its current spot at 44.5, indicating the sharp bettors foresee a low-scoring bout. An under result would buck a four-game trend of New England-Philadelphia games going over and seven of the nine games these teams have played over the last three decades have also landed on the over side.
Mike Reiss posted the refereeing assignment for this Week 11 matchup and noted that the crew has been the least likely to toss laundry on the field during the 2019 NFL season:
The Patriots hold a slight SU edge in the all-time series against this opponent, winning eight of the 14 games these teams have played against one another, including a Super Bowl victory in 2005. New England boasts a 7-5 lead in the regular season series, but lost 35-28 at home in the most recent matchup back in 2015. The organization hasn’t faced the Eagles on the road since 2011, but had little issues at Lincoln Financial Field that year and left with a 38-20 victory. The Pats are 2-0 at Philadelphia’s current stadium—also winning at the stadium in 2003—but notably lost the first five times they played the Eagles on the road. Those defeats came prior to New England forging a dynasty with quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick leading the way, but that doesn’t mean the club will have it easy in the City of Brotherly Love for their Week 11 trip.
Eagles Fan Problems pointed out how long it has been since the Patriots last beat the Eagles:
Philadelphia’s players won’t be intimidated by New England’s mystique, especially not after the team outdueled Brady and Belichick on the biggest stage the last time they met. There has been plenty of change across both rosters in the 21 months leading up to this game though, with many of the key players set to suit up in Week 11 didn’t participate in that championship tilt. The Patriots were missing top receiver Julian Edelman and linebacker Don’ta Hightower—both were on injured reserve—while the Eagles were relying on backup quarterback Nick Foles, now with the Jacksonville Jaguars, to lead the offense with starter Carson Wentz also on IR. All three of those players will see the field on Sunday, along with a myriad of new faces that these organizations have acquired by way of free agency and the NFL Draft. These roster overhauls are something that Brady addressed when speaking to the press during the leadup to the contest(via NESN.com ):
This is all about tough competition against the best teams. They deserved it that year, and now a couple years later we get a chance to play the organization again. We’ve had a lot changes, they’ve had a lot of changes. It’s totally different circumstances. Huge game for us. Big game for them. The better team is going to win...Hopefully everyone got a chance to decompress a little bit mentally, physically and now we’ve got to get ready for a great week of preparation and then get ready to go in the there and play our best game of the season on the road, in a really tough environment. It should be a great Sunday afternoon for football
As Brady mentioned, both teams will be well rested and properly prepared coming into this game due to a shared bye this past week. Interestingly enough, each of these teams rank amongst the most dangerous in the NFL following a bye. Since 2001, both New England and Philadelphia have gone 14-4 SU in games played following a week off. That mark trails only the Baltimore Ravens, who just pulled ahead with a 15-4 record in the same span thanks to a victory over the Pats after coming off a bye in Week 8. It is worth noting that New England has been able to handle opponents getting an extra week of prep time quite well, winning eight in a row against teams coming off a bye prior to that aforementioned loss to Baltimore. The Eagles also haven’t been as impossible to beat after a bye under head coach Doug Pederson as they were during former head coach Andy Reid’s tenure either, having lost two of three games following a break since Pederson took over the reins in 2016.
The Eagles are going to need to show some more life on the offensive end of the football if they are going to upset the Patriots in Week 11. They are about to match up with what is likely the toughest defense they will face during the 2019 NFL season, as New England leads the league in both scoring and total defense, giving up an average of just 10.9 points and 249.3 yards per game. Wentz has to prove the bye has ignited a spark within the Philadelphia passing attack, which has stalled out this year and is averaging a pedestrian 219.7 yards per game through the air. The 26-year-old is coming off one of his best performances of the campaign, torching the Washington Redskins for 313 yards and three interceptions on 28-of-39 passing. Wentz was mistake-free in that matchup, but New England’s secondary is far more opportunistic. The unit leads the league by a wide margin with 19 interceptions on the year, contributing heavily to an absurd +17 turnover differential through their first nine games.
Despite an inconsistent 2019 NFL season so far from Wentz, Belichick praised the Philadelphia signal-caller and gave a glowing scouting report during a press conference leading up to their Week 11 clash (via Inquirer.com ):
He’s a very versatile player, pretty good at everything. He’s got a real good arm. Can make all the throws. Can throw on the run, throw in the pocket. Get the ball to all his receivers; he reads coverages well. He’s athletic and can extend plays. He looks like a pretty smart guy. They give him a lot of responsibility as far as checks at the line of scrimmage. He’s a really good football player that really looks good at everything, good at all areas of the game.
One area where the Eagles should continue to thrive is on the ground, both in defending the rush and moving the chains with their running back platoon. Philadelphia’s defensive line has been especially dominant during the 2019 NFL season, allowing a mere 87.3 yards per game to opposing rushers. Only three teams have performed better in that department at this juncture of the campaign, although the unit is only responsible for 24 sacks, which ranks in the middle of the pack. On offense, the Eagles are just outside the top-10 with an average of 127.3 rushing yards per game and have found an identity using running backs Jordan Howard as a bruiser and Miles Sanders as a quick change-of-pace option. They will go to work against a New England front that just allowed the Ravens to run wild, racking up 210 yards and three scores on the ground in a 37-20 Baltimore victory.
It would be surprising if Belichick didn’t use the bye to shore up the issues that allowed Baltimore to dominate his team with the run, but it remains to be seen if the coach will be able to jump-start New England’s own flailing rushing attack. The franchise simply hasn’t been able to get much going on the ground during the first half of the campaign, with starting running back Sony Michel averaging an ugly 3.3 yards per carry and hit a new low when he earned just four totes in Week 9. It won’t be easy to turn things around in Week 11, which is why the Patriots will likely look to throw early and often against a mediocre Philly secondary that has given up an average of 239 yards per game and allowed 16 touchdowns against eight interceptions in nine outings.
Pederson mused on how great Brady has been for such a long time and admitted it will be hard for his defense to get to the future Hall of Fame QB (via BleedingGreenNation.com ):
You’re kind of in awe obviously of his play, where he is in his career, how he’s got himself physically and mentally really to play every season and every play of every game. You’re really not going to show him anything he hasn’t seen from a schematic standpoint. He’s smart. He knows exactly where to go with the football. He can direct his offense and get guys in position to be successful and he does a great job with the football and protecting it. It’s hard to get to him, number one. He gets the ball out extremely fast. It’s just really impressive to watch where he is in his career, and the age, all of that. As a former quarterback, to sit back and kind of watch him play, has been really impressive for me.
Potential bettors should not underestimate New England’s ability to bounce back after a loss. The organization is an incredible 38-11 following an “L” since 2001 and rarely drops back-to-back games. In that same span, the Patriots have only suffered consecutive defeats in 2001, 2002, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2018. Factor in that some of the players who were around for Super Bowl LII have openly gone on record and said that they are still pained by that loss and you have the recipe for a classic revenge victory by New England. The Pats will be fired up to get back on the field following their first and only loss of the 2019 NFL season, looking to avenge both that loss, their last regular season defeat to the Eagles in 2015 and, most importantly, their blown championship to this opponent two years ago. Considering the Pats have had no problems going into Lincoln Financial Field and winning before, it’s safe to say that they are the right betting play here and are worth backing at -3.5. New England would still be a slam-dunk if the line were a full touchdown, so lay the points and watch the team cruise to a massive road victory in Week 11.
Prediction: Patriots 28 – Eagles 17
New York Jets at Washington Redskins
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
I've been working in the realm of sports my entire career, starting as a breaking news writer right out of Arizona State University. After three years of writing, I
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