Make A Living Spread Betting

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Make A Living Spread Betting
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The bookmakers have an edge of built-in margin but unlike casino where pure mathematics governs the sports betting is pretty much a skill-oriented game thus successful Software / Tipsters (Handicappers) / Systems turn their edge into ours Those proven methods can identify a True Value Bet in the form of UNDER-ROUND in the selected sports category where they have absolute skill edge for handicappers and all through the sports categories for software. These will result in Positive EV (Expected Value) which’s a mathematical formula to allow you to achieve average long-term profit. This +EV will be translated into the additional winning rate of 57%.
See RebelBetting Value Betting Software – model to double your bank in 3 months , which can apply to almost all players in the world. Strongly urge all US bettors to check Value Betting USA – Trademate US Sports Software Assessment which shows how we achieved over $12,000 pure profits with $3,600 starting bank after placing 5,000 Bets.
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Whether people can make living sports betting or not is a long-disputed subject, and discussed everywhere like gambling forums or sports betting for a living Reddit.
There are 2 obvious facts. The first fact is that there exist people who live off of sports betting/gambling. The 2nd fact is such people are not many.
Have you ever watched the movie of professional gamblers’ story “The Hustler”? Paul Newman as Fast Eddie Felson plays the lead role. His dream is to prove himself as the best pool player by beating the most renowned player of all times, Minnesota Fats.
From the perspective of how to make money gambling, the essence of this movie is what Bert Gorden played by George C. Scott said (see the script image).
Yes, “Character”. Eddie was beaten by Fats due to the lack of the Character but finally, beat Fats because Eddie got the Character. This character can be interpreted as “Emotional Toughness” in this movie.
There are 2 types of people who bet on sports. Recreational Punter who bet for fun as a hobby with the hope of winning. On the other hand, Non-Casual Punter bet seriously for living or at least Not only for fun.
I said people who can make a living sports betting is not many. It’s supposed to be far less than 5% of sports bettors who constantly win and they are called “Sharp”.
We don’t know if such 5% Sharp bettors can make ends meet with just sports betting but at least they don’t lose to the sportsbooks.
The rest 95% of recreational punters lose in the long run.
What makes the difference between the 2 punters? Yes, “Character”. And if you become a part of 5% with the Character, you may have a chance to make a living off sports betting.
Many professional gamblers don’t actually gamble which we define Count On Chance. Instead, they do advantage plays based on mathematical edge to beat the bookies.
That’s exactly what we do based on our policy of Betting On Luck is for Losers, Stop Gamble Betting But Bet on Only the +EV (Expected Value) To Win Reliably , and it’s effectively our way to promote Responsible Gambling under the regulation. Needless to say, we strongly support GamCare being explained in about us .
We have 6 advantage plays though in sports betting, we use (1) Matched Betting (2) Sports Arbitrage (3) Value Bets On Proven Systems / Tipsters to lock in a profit or consistently earn extra income reliably for the long-term.
Therefore, the purpose of this guide is to assess if it is really possible to make a living in sports betting by examining the above (1) – (3) sports advantage plays.
The sports betting we discuss in this document is online betting. Then, some of you may wonder if betting online is legitimate in your country or you can physically access online betting sites.
In Short, except for 8 Countries (Cyprus, Poland, North Korea, United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Brunei, Cambodia) where on-line gamble is legally prohibited, all of you can make a profit from the 3 sports betting Advantage Plays we examine in this document.
BTW, we encourage all of our members to use the world’s best offshore sportsbooks , which make you far less worried about any account restriction than European, especially the notorious UK bookies, just FYI.
So let’s get down to the real subject.
Firstly, see the below table (sourced from Statista ) showing the number of money people lose through gambling.
In the US, the loss accounts for around 0.6% of the whole nation’s GNP. Whatever the American Gambling Association says or justifies, it’s a huge amount.
No wonder people perceive gambling as a loser’s game and never even think about chances to make a living from betting;
However, there are clear common reasons why people lose in gambling. As the later video explains there are the following 4 basic traits that ordinary punters can’t manage;
Well, many of you think these are cliche, but, without exceptions, losers fall into at least one of these – these are the part of the factors described as “Character” before.
And advantage players have the Character.
BTW, have you ever wondered what is the difference between Investing & Gambling?
There have also been numerous arguments over this subject. One of the most logical & simple explanation is to measure the Certainty of Profit or Loss Outcome as illustrated in the below diagram;
The certainty of the outcome is expressed as the Level of Probability to gain profit. EV (Expected Value) which, simply put an average profit or loss, is the most straightforward & best way to measure it.
The higher the certainty of Positive EV, the better chance you can live off of the method due to the stronger level of return stability.
In the above breakdown of the Investment / Gambling spectrum, needless to say, Lottery’s EV (Expected Value) is the lowest.
Its EV is always negative. According to a business insider , the $450 million Powerball Jackpot lottery’s EV is – $1.37 per ticket. This means you lose an average $1.37 when you buy a $2 ticket, so the loss accounts for 68% out of your investment.
This terrible return applies to all lotteries.
When it comes to the Casino games, there is House Edge you can’t mathematically overcome.
It’s the margin casinos build in all through the games, and as long as the house edge exists the EV is negative. The % of the house edge depends on the game.
According to The Wizard of Odds , it ranges between the lowest 0.3% of Blackjack and 25% of Keno. The American Roulette is 5.6%, means if you stake $100 on Roulette you will lose an average $5.6.
Don’t misunderstand the above comment. Always Variance comes in, thus you are not necessary to lose $5.6 whenever you bet $100 but the more you bet the closer to this number the loss will be.
Say, if you stake $10,000 x 1 or $5,000 x 2, you may win a lot or lose everything, this is due to Variance. However you play $100 x 100 or $10 x 1,000 times, then you will quite likely lose $560.
That’s how the mathematics of EV works based on the Law of Large Numbers (LLN) .
There is a poker game you compete with a machine called video poker. It could be a part of casino games though, interestingly just a handful of video poker that is Full Pay Deuce Wild Poker gives Player Edge 0.77%.
This means you have the edge and you will make a 0.77% profit average in the long-term, the Positive EV.
When you talk about the Poker Competition, it’s a skewed Skill and this is the category where you can create Positive EV as long as you follow the poker mathematical logic . The below video from splitsuit.poker shows the EV concept application to Poker;
What about financial products which are usually perceived as investment such as Equity (Stock) or Bond (Fixed Income)?
Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 – Current shows S&P 500 (US Stock Index) average is 11.41% while 10-year T-Bond is 5.23%.
However, when it comes to the standard deviation (fluctuation of return), of course, Stock is much higher.
According to CFA Digest , stocks are about 3 times more volatile than bonds on average. This means the certainty of outcome in Positive return of Fixed Income is surely higher than Stock.
The below chart is just giving you how the magnitude of the difference of volatility between these 2 asset classes are (sourced from Market Realist );
Then, where should we place Sports Betting?
Some of you may have noticed that the fundamental difference between Lottery / Casino and Equity / Fixed Income is whether you are controlled by the house or not.
Lottery & Casino is a Zero Sum game and the winning rate is controlled by the organizer or house. If you compete with the house under such circumstance it’s impossible to win in long-term.
On the other hand, Equity / Fixed Income is not Zero-Sum but as long as the underlying products perform well you can win endlessly.
When it comes to Sports Betting, we compete with bookmakers in Zero Sum world. Yes, they are our enemies. And off-course they have built-in margin called Over-round (or Vigorish or Juice), which is up to 10%.
With this business model, the giant UK bookies are making record profits as Bet365;
Bet365 head Denise Coates sets UK record with £323m pay pocket means the majority of punters are losing heavily So time to revenge by being a 5% of Sharp
Means, theoretically you will lose the over-round % in the long run, then it can be positioned between Casino and Equity.
However, bear it in mind that Casino is basically governed by the law of probability (when you throw dice, the probability of 1 is always 1/6) but Sports Betting is largely governed by Knowledge, Data & Skill (nobody can accurately predict Barcelona’s next win % against Real Madrid). For these particular points, you may want to see Beat the Bookies Nicely By Knowing How They Make Money .
Besides, once the bookmakers’ bonus/various promotional offers come in, we will see a completely different picture.
The level of certainty of Positive EV will become very high, effectively 100%.
Bottom line, when we apply advantage plays into these 2 areas of Bonus Offers and Skill-Based, we can Turn Bookmakers’ Edge into Our Edge , therefore the certainty of our 3 sports betting methods can be higher than investing.
Then, let’s examine how that can enable you to make a living advantage play.
Let’s start up with Matched Betting which makes the best use of Bonus (Free Bets) / Promotional Offers provided by bookmakers.
Matched betting is a conceptually very simple technique and the easiest sports bet to win . We cover all the outcomes of the sports event by backing at the bookmaker and laying at the betting exchange (or among bookies if you use Dutching method ).
Since backing stake at a bookmaker is free bets, it is a Guaranteed Profit with 100% Risk-Free.
For those who are not familiar with Matched Betting, suggest going through Matched Betting For Dummies.
People generally rake thousands of £/€/$ only from bookmakers’ welcome (sign-up) bonus. Sadly, some matched bettors believe matched betting is all about the welcome bonuses and neglect all the subsequent offers. Actually, the real tasty part is the abundance of Reload bonuses for existing players.
You can continuously make a decent solid income as long as you can manage to keep your account alive (the biggest obstacle for matched betting is the bookmaker’s account restriction called “ Gubbing ” which I will talk about later).
Remember, matched betting is based on the application of a mathematical equation rather than chances, so you always get a Positive EV.
Therefore, we position matched betting at the right end in the above gambling/investment spectrum because it is even more certain outcome than fixed incomes.
Bond still has various risks such as interest, credit or inflation but a large part of matched betting is absolutely risk-free with instant guaranteed profit – people call it easy bet to win money.
Let’s examine if people can make a living matched betting. Probably the best way to examine is using Profit Accumulator (PA) case.
PA is one of the most popular matched betting premium subscription services with over 20,000 members in the UK. The members’ average monthly income from the matched betting is said to be around £1,000. See Profit Accumulator Full Review – Should We Believe 20,000 members’ Earning Claim? for full details.
At the end of the above review report, you will find the section of “Going Full Time”.
In the private forum of PA, there is a thread of that subject and people actively discuss the possibility of making matched betting full time.
Let me share the below member’s comment I included in the report;
I can’t conclude that you can make a living full-time sports betting with matched betting just due to only this evidence.
However, as Profit Accumulator’s founder says
It’s the fact that if you can make a strong commitment, the opportunity surely exists.
Anyhow, the best way to examine is you yourself try it. You can go to our GEM Matched Betting Instruction Index , which is all Free.
Alternatively, you may consider the subscription service of which various software will bring about high efficiency. The top 3 in the industry are Profit Accumulator , Oddsmonkey & Profit Maximiser .
One of the benefits to use them is 0% Betting Exchange Commission thanks to their partnership with Smarkets, Matchbook & Betdaq ( this report shows all top 4 betting exchange latest sign-up offers & how to extract cash risk-free from each offer).
Only with this, you can cover years of their subscription fee. When it comes to which service you should take, check our Comparison of these 3 services & software , which will help you decide the best-fitted one to you.
As briefly mentioned, the largest hurdle to your sustainable matched betting is the bookmaker’s account limitation called Gubbing.
Actually, it’s just a matter of time before most of the soft bookies limit your account if you do matched betting without any precautionary actions. Therefore, we have prepared the following 2 guides;
In the Gambling / Investment Spectrum, I place Sports Arbitrage in the same position as matched betting. The risk-free mechanism of matched betting which covers all the outcomes by back & lay was originated by arbitraging.
However, arbitrage betting doesn’t use bookmakers’ bonuses but take advantage of inefficiencies in the market including the bookmakers’ mistakes or slow adjustment of the odds etc.
Theoretically, it’s No Risk and one of the most powerful & famous advantages plays.
Given the extremely short life of the arbing opportunity in the market, nowadays it’s almost impossible to make it manually. You will definitely need very sophisticated software to make a serious profit.
So far, the industry’s number one software is Rebel Betting. You will find more about it in Rebel Betting Full review – The Truth about World Best Sports Arbitrage Software.
So, can we live off Sports Arbitrage?
There is 1 famous arbitrager in the UK. His name is Mr. Alan Seymour. Alan started Sports Arbitrage in 2002 and published his quarterly trading account in his blog up to the end of 2015. That’s one way to answer the standard question of how much can sports arbitrage make? See the below image;
He raised his trading capital up to £75,000 and achieved around £25,000 quarterly net profit. Means £100,000 / year. Obviously, it’s more than enough income for ordinary people to manage their life.
I once communicated with him. Although I could not get a clear answer on how he had been able to get around without being restricted/limited by most of the bookies, I didn’t get the impression that he exaggerated his trading figures.
Currently, his site seems to be dormant and his e-mail address of alan.seymour@sportsarbitragereview.co.uk doesn’t work, so looks his arbitrage trading is no longer active. But 14 years of lucrative trading from 2002 up to 2015 is absolutely stunning.
However, again, I can’t conclude if Sports Arbitrage is the method allowing you to make ends meet with just this example.
One sure thing is that nowadays, bookies are so sensitive about arbers and they usually limit arbitragers’ accounts much earlier than matched bettors’.
Having said that, I would personally not suggest going full-time with it.
So far, 2 advantage plays are risk-free because they are hedged betting.
We are now moving on to the Not-Risk-Free Advantage Play – Value Betting by Proven Software Finder) / Top Tipsters (Handicappers) / System.
Firstly, let’s review what we need to gain decent earnings (means the amount ordinary people can make ends meet) in numbers.
So, how much do professional sports bettors make? There are several studies. We will examine based on the following assumptions;
The 1st concern is the compounding & stake limit. If follow the above process with compound mechanics and increase your bankroll to $20,000 after 1 year, your every bet would become over $1,000 (5% of total bankroll) and exponentially increase afterward.
In practice, you will find no bookmakers that can keep accepting such high-rollers’ bet except a few .
Anyhow, let’s assume you stop compounding when you reach $20,000 bankroll, and bet $1,000 for each game, then;
It’s well over the GDP per Capita in the United States which is equivalent to 408 percent of the world’s average. You would agree that this amount is surely enough to spend a decent life. 57% Winning Rate
The 2nd concern is the 57% winning rate. Is it something everybody can achieve?
The video assumes we get 100% winning amount of our original bet amount when we win (namely 2.0 decimal odds).
However, that’s the return we can expect under the magic break-even rate of 52.4%, therefore we have to achieve nearly 9% better (57% / 52.4) winning rate than the probability of outcome the actual odds at bookmaker suggests.
It doesn’t seem to be so easy as the video discusses. For this particular point, suggest you take a look at 3 Methods To Eliminate Fake Tipsters & Select Genuine Best, which gives you better insight into the winning rate.
You really have to locate the good Value Bets of which true value is different from the actual odds the bookmakers set, otherwise, you can’t beat the bookies’ odds.
It’s not impossible to go full-time sports betting. However, even by doing so, it takes a long time to develop your
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