☕ MORNING COFFEE | 24/03/26
Hours of content. Minutes of clarity
☕ MORNING COFFEE | 24/03/26
Hours of content. Minutes of clarity.
📊 4 videos | 1.5h of content | 12 min read
📺 Eurodollar University
Holy Sh*t… Blackstone’s “Safe” Fund Just Lost Money
🏷 The deterioration of confidence in the private credit market and the risk of a liquidity spiral, evidenced by the monthly loss of Blackstone's B-CRED fund | ⏱ 22 min
The recent monthly loss of Blackstone's B-CRED fund is not a simple accounting anomaly, but rather the first crack in Wall Street's infallible narrative about private credit. Financial crises do not erupt from an excess of mathematical defaults, but from the sudden loss of confidence that fractures investor expectations and unleashes deadly liquidity spirals. While the financial elite denies reality, they only succeed in accelerating this sector's transition toward the 'toxic waste' label, repeating exactly the psychological blindness that caused the 2008 collapse.
🔑 Key Points
The 'zero risk' illusion fractures
After years of selling the false promise of high returns without volatility, Blackstone's massive fund suffered its first drop due to widening spreads and markdowns on specific assets. This small stumble destroys the psychological pedestal of investors, initiating the erosion of systemic confidence.
📊 The $83 billion B-CRED fund reported a 0.4% loss in February, its first drop after years of uninterrupted gains.
Mathematical models blind to the human factor
Executives from firms like Blackstone and Ares try to appease the panic using spreadsheets that ignore how humans behave when afraid. Their models assume investors will sit still, when in reality, the loss of credibility triggers massive preemptive selling that invalidates any linear projection.
📊 John Gray modeled an extreme scenario (15% default rate) arguing that the fund would only lose 3 points annually, completely omitting the risk of forced liquidations.
The real lesson of 2008: liquidity, not defaults
The subprime collapse didn't destroy the system because of loan quality, but because of the 'toxic waste' stigma that forced selling at fire-sale prices. The ultimate empirical proof is that the government absorbed the worst assets of the crisis and generated massive returns simply because it didn't have to sell them in a panic.
📊 The Fed's Maiden Lane portfolios generated $11 billion in profits by buying and holding to maturity the 'toxic waste' of AIG and Bear Stearns.
🎯 Conclusion
It's not the credit losses that kill you, it's the forced liquidation when you discover you've been sold pure garbage packaged as a safe investment. Corporate denial and Wall Street arrogance don't stop the panic; they only guarantee that this crisis of confidence continues its inevitable escalation.
💡 Key Takeaway: If the deterioration of credibility in private credit continues, the real catalyst will be the forced selling of assets, not corporate defaults. Watch for widening spreads and liquidity lock-ups in giant funds, ignoring official loss projections.
🎬 Watch video on YouTube | 📖 Read video Deep Dive
📺 Bitcoin y Criptos
En ESTOS PRECIOS compraron BITCOIN🟠
🏷 On-chain and macroeconomic analysis to identify the bottom of Bitcoin's current bearish correction | ⏱ 16 min
Juan Rodríguez argues that Bitcoin is building the definitive bottom of its current correction in the $70,000 zone. Using on-chain data and fractal comparisons from 2022, he demonstrates that the retail investor has a mathematical window to accumulate at a lower cost than institutional ETFs, supported by MicroStrategy's colossal buy wall and crypto's surprising resilience in the face of the Middle East conflict.
🔑 Key Points
Strategic advantage against institutional capital
Current prices offer a rare market anomaly: a direct discount compared to recent massive purchases. Entering at these levels means positioning oneself with a significantly lower cost basis than major US funds.
📊 Average ETF purchase price: $79,900 vs. current price hovering around $70,000.
Whale support and the 2022 fractal
The current 52% drop mimics the seller exhaustion structure prior to the 2022 bottom. The medium-sized whale cohort marks the short-term support, leaving the only downside risk as a quick liquidation wick in the event of a black swan.
📊 Strong whale support (100-1000 BTC) at $67,900; realized price (maximum downside risk) at $54,000-$55,000.
MicroStrategy's safety net depends on Wall Street
The pace of corporate accumulation acts as a buyer of last resort that limits deep drawdowns. However, this liquidity is not magical: it is mechanically tied to the performance of its traditional shares in order to issue debt.
📊 MSTR averages 7,600 BTC bought per week in 2026, but recently slowed purchases to 1,031 BTC because its stock ($MSTR) failed to surpass $100.
Bitcoin validates its thesis as a geopolitical safe haven asset
While 20-year bonds and oil suffer volatility due to Trump's statements and tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin absorbs capital, distancing itself from the traditional initial weakness of other assets in the face of wars.
📊 23 days into the armed conflict, BTC has risen in price, outperforming the S&P 500 and gold, which historically pull back in the first 60 days.
🎯 Conclusion
We are building the bottom of this cycle and the metrics tell us we will not go that low. The macro scenario is on pause thanks to maneuvers with oil, but the real imminent trigger that Bitcoin's price is waiting for to react is the resolution of the 'Clarity Act' regarding stablecoins.
💡 Key Takeaway: If Bitcoin holds the whale barrier at $67,900, take advantage of the discount compared to the ETF price ($79.9K); maintain liquidity for an unlikely test at $55K and monitor the imminent Clarity Act as a bullish catalyst.
🎬 Watch video on YouTube | 📖 Read video Deep Dive
📺 Coin Bureau
Where Money Goes If Yield Is Banned
🏷 Coordinated lobbying by traditional banks to legally ban stablecoin yield via Section 404 to protect their fractional reserve business models. | ⏱ 9 min
The traditional banking cartel is launching a desperate legislative attack to legally ban stablecoin yield and protect their extractive fractional reserve model. By pushing Section 404 of the Clarity Act, banks aim to kill fully reserved digital dollars that pass treasury yields directly to users, but this blatant regulatory capture is about to trigger a massive capital migration into permissionless DeFi.
🔑 Key Points
The 330 Basis Point Theft by Legacy Banks
The legacy banking model relies on a highly extractive spread, capturing risk-free treasury yields while giving depositors practically nothing. Fully reserved stablecoins break this monopoly by returning the true market yield directly to the actual owners of the capital.
📊 Four major US banks generated $262.8 billion in net interest income in 2025 by paying a pathetic 0.4% on deposits while earning 3.7% on T-bills.
Section 404: The Cartel's $500K-a-Day Weapon
Terrified by a regulatory loophole that allows third-party platforms to pass treasury yields to retail investors, banking lobbies are holding the Clarity Act hostage in the Senate. They are demanding a draconian domestic ban on stablecoin yield to prevent an existential threat to their liquidity.
📊 Banking lobbies warn of a $6.6 trillion capital flight, pushing for Section 404 which carries a $500,000 per offense, per day penalty for passing yield to users.
The Fatal Flaw: Untouchable Autonomous Code
Banning stablecoin yield on regulated US platforms won't save traditional bank deposits; it will simply force capital into the path of least resistance offshore. Recent federal court rulings, including a landmark dismissal of a Uniswap lawsuit, confirm that the US government cannot sanction immutable smart contracts.
📊 A domestic ban will drive liquidity directly to legally protected DeFi protocols like Aave (offering 4-7% APY on USDC) and offshore exchanges (up to 10% APY).
🎯 Conclusion
Wall Street knows they cannot compete with a 100% reserved digital dollar that pays a fair yield, so they are spending tens of millions to legally ban the competition. The real challenge now is whether decentralized infrastructure can scale fast enough to absorb the trillions of dollars seeking permissionless yield before the regulatory doors lock from the outside.
💡 Key Takeaway: If the US banking cartel successfully passes Section 404 to ban stablecoin yield, expect a multi-trillion dollar capital flight straight into legally resilient, decentralized protocols like Aave.
🎬 Watch video on YouTube | 📖 Read video Deep Dive
📺 Morningstar
4 Stocks to Buy with Winning Brands I March 23, 2026
🏷 Analysis of macroeconomic volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, Fed policy, and valuation-based stock picks in AI tech and strong-brand consumer goods. | ⏱ 48 min
Frente a la histeria desatada por los recientes choques geopolíticos en Medio Oriente, Dave Sequeira actúa como la voz de la razón para desarmar el pánico y advertir sobre la futilidad de intentar cronometrar el mercado. Anclado en rigurosos modelos de flujo de caja descontado, argumenta que mientras la inflación impulsada por el petróleo y una Reserva Federal estancada generan vientos en contra, el verdadero foco del inversor debe estar en adquirir empresas con sólidas ventajas competitivas (moats) que hoy cotizan con fuertes descuentos.
🔑 Key Points
La geopolítica genera ruido, no estrategia de inversión
Los titulares nocturnos provocan reacciones viscerales en los activos, pero operar en base a este pánico destruye rentabilidad. La respuesta adecuada frente a los choques externos es mantener el estoicismo y promediar el costo en dólares a medida que surgen distorsiones en las valoraciones.
📊 Tras el anuncio sobre Irán, los futuros del S&P 500 oscilaron de -0.8% a +2.5%, mientras el crudo cayó 5.8% y el oro perdió más de $200 por onza.
La Reserva Federal no rescatará al mercado a corto plazo
A diferencia del periodo 2021-2022, la Fed reaccionará mucho más rápido a las presiones inflacionarias y no considerará transitoria la 'inflación geopolítica'. Sin una desinflación explícita en bienes, los recortes de tasas quedan descartados, lo que seguirá tensionando los rendimientos y el crédito privado.
📊 El rendimiento del Tesoro a 10 años escaló al 4.39% (un aumento de 20 puntos básicos), reflejando un mercado de bonos que ahora asigna mayor probabilidad a una subida de tasas que a un recorte.
El espejismo del CapEx en la infraestructura de IA
Aunque la demanda masiva de centros de datos está otorgando un poder de fijación de precios increíble a corto plazo, el enorme desembolso de capital para nuevas plantas es una advertencia. Existe un riesgo sustancial de una severa corrección a la baja cuando la nueva oferta inunde el mercado.
📊 Micron duplicó agresivamente su CapEx a $25 mil millones anuales en respuesta a precios que subieron 140% (DRAM) y 170% (NAND) interanual.
Lululemon: el péndulo del mercado ofrece un valor profundo
El mercado ha castigado irracionalmente la acción por contracciones temporales en sus márgenes, ignorando el valor intrínseco de su marca. Con una directiva conservadora (sandbagging) y la presión del fondo activista Elliott Investment Management para aplicar disciplina operativa, el escenario alcista es sumamente asimétrico.
📊 La acción se ha desplomado un 67% desde su pico histórico de 2023 y actualmente cotiza con un enorme descuento del 45% respecto a su 'Fair Value' (a 13x ganancias forward).
🎯 Conclusion
Como hemos visto repetidamente a lo largo de los años, el mercado de valores a menudo actúa como un péndulo irracional. No se dejen arrastrar por el pánico macroeconómico ni traten de adivinar el próximo movimiento de la Reserva Federal; en su lugar, exijan un riguroso margen de seguridad en sus modelos y aprovechen este temor generalizado para comprar excelentes modelos de negocio a precios de descuento.
💡 Key Takeaway: Si la volatilidad macroeconómica y las tasas altas continúan presionando los índices, evita las decisiones reactivas e inicia compras escalonadas en marcas de consumo con ventajas competitivas amplias e injustificadamente castigadas, como Lululemon ($LULU) y Clorox ($CLX).
🎬 Watch video on YouTube | 📖 Read video Deep Dive
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