Jacques Moretti's Bold Prediction: Streaming Services Will Overtake Theaters by 2030

jacques moretti

Jacques Moretti’s prediction lands like a dare tossed into a crowded cinema lobby: by 2030, streaming services will overtake theaters. The claim feels both audacious and almost inevitable, depending on which currents you watch. On one side, streaming platforms have rewritten the economics of distribution, offering instant access, personalized recommendations, and the promise of global reach with a single click. On the other side, theaters remain social cathedrals: big screens that intensify spectacle, a ritual around new releases, and a distribution channel that still commands premium pricing for certain kinds of events. The tension between these forces is not a binary fork but a swinging pendulum.

Consider the momentum behind streaming growth. A growing roster of platforms has slashed the time between a film’s festival premiere and its availability at home. Subscriptions ladder up, churn is managed with new tiers and ad-supported options, and production pipelines have adapted to a world where IP can be exploited across multiple formats—from feature-length storytelling to limited series and at times even interlinked universes. For many consumers, the value proposition is simple: access to a library, a personalized watchlist, and the ability to pause and resume without leaving the couch. If that model continues to scale globally, the cumulative revenue it generates can begin to approximate or even surpass traditional theatrical grosses—especially when you factor in the money saved on distribution costs, the absence of marketing behemoths that theaters require, and the possibility of evolving price models.

Yet theaters aren’t fading into memory. The theatrical experience remains a communal event, a shared emotion that even the best home setup can’t fully replicate. There’s something about a crowd gasping in unison, a moment of collective awe at a large-scale projection, and the ritual of popcorn, pre-film anticipation, and post-film conversations that lingers long after the credits roll. In an era of screen fatigue and over-saturation, the theater can still operate as a touristic destination for rare releases—arthouse premieres, prestige dramas, and tentpole films designed to justify the visit. Theaters also push the envelope through premium formats, immersive sound, and exclusive engagement experiences that streaming platforms have yet to reproduce at scale.

From an economic standpoint, the story is nuanced. Streaming services are experimenting with how to monetize content over time: ad-supported tiers, microtransactions, longer-tail licensing deals, and original productions that carry higher margins than traditional broadcast windows. This experimentation could tilt the balance toward streaming as the primary home for a broad slate of titles. However, studios and distributors still face significant costs in producing blockbuster cinema—budget inflation, star salaries, and the need to maximize weekend grosses. If the economics shift toward a model where big-budget films are released day-and-date on streaming and in theaters, the idea of a clean cut between two ecosystems blurs. The outcome is not 'either-or' but a hybrid reality where different releases play to different strengths: prestige titles in theaters, mass-market fare on streaming, and event-driven premieres that straddle both.

Drive a bit deeper into geography and consumer behavior and the case becomes more intricate. In many regions outside the traditional cineplex corridor, streaming isn’t just a convenience—it’s a lifeline. It allows local exhibitors to participate in a global conversation without the heavy investment required to replicate Hollywood-grade facilities. For those markets, streaming can democratize access to cinema-like experiences, even if attendance at local theaters remains limited by infrastructure, safety, or affordability. In return, studios gain a global distribution runway that can amortize production costs more broadly. The global audience is not a mere afterthought; it’s a central pillar in the business model moving forward. If growth continues along this path, the line between 'home viewing' and 'theater viewing' may become a spectrum rather than a hard boundary.

Still, the future isn’t written in stone. A number of countercurrents temper the optimism. Consumer attention is a scarce resource, and with dozens of streaming services vying for it, the space risks fragmenting audiences and diluting the value of any single subscription. Password-sharing fatigue, feature-d proliferation, and the reality of subscription fatigue could slow growth, even for technically sophisticated platforms. In theaters, on the other hand, the experience may evolve by leaning into what it does best—shared immersion, in-person conversations with artists and casts, and exclusive events that leverage live interaction. If studios discover that certain titles or events pull more people into theaters than can be justified by traditional release windows, the economics of theater releases could be revitalized rather than relinquished.

Another dimension to watch is how technology reshapes both sides of the equation. The rise of high-dynamic-range visuals, immersive sound, and improved streaming compression makes at-home viewing more cinema-like than ever before. Conversely, theaters respond with upgrades to seating, screen quality, and in-theater services, delivering experiences that can’t be matched by a home setup. Beyond hardware, the rise of live-streamed premieres, multi-venue events, and cross-platform storytelling means studios can create hybrid strategies that leverage both spaces for maximum impact. When a blockbuster launches in theaters with a synchronized streaming window, audiences can choose their preferred mode of engagement, while studios capture both the immediacy of theatrical buzz and the long-tail value of streaming viewership.

If a shift toward streaming overtaking theaters by 2030 becomes plausible, what would that imply for artists, filmmakers, and audiences? It would likely demand a rethinking of incentives, deadlines, and creative risk. Filmmaking could become more globally narrative in scope, tailored not just to a local theatrical market but to a streaming audience that spans continents. It would also reshape the economics of development, where the speed-to-market and the breadth of platform reach influence which projects get made in the first place. For audiences, the choice could become less about where a film is released and more about how and when they want to experience it, with a premium attached to curated, transmedia experiences that stream alongside more traditional storytelling.

Ultimately, Moretti’s bold claim invites a broader conversation about how we value cinema as an art form and a business. It’s less a prophecy than a provocative lens on contemporary distribution. The question isn’t which model will dominate, but how the two ecosystems will converge to serve a world of diverse viewing habits. If the trajectory favors streaming more heavily, it will be because platforms have succeeded in delivering not only access but a sense of discovery, community, and cultural relevance that theaters have struggled to match at scale. If theaters endure, it will be because they adapt—focusing on the intimate, the exclusive, and the irreplaceable social moment that only a dark room full of strangers can provide.

In the end, this isn’t about choosing sides. It’s about watching a living industry negotiate the balance between immediacy and ritual, convenience and ceremony, scale and soul. Jacques Moretti’s prediction is a spark that encourages examination, not a verdict that seals the fate of cinema. The next decade will reveal whether streaming completes its ascent, whether theaters reinvent themselves in ways we hadn’t imagined, or whether the two modes carve out a new, intertwined future in which the best entertainment lives wherever we choose to watch it.

Jacques Moretti's Bold Prediction: Streaming Services Will Overtake Theaters by 2030

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