"It's a little scary" - Corona mutation? Drosten dares a disturbing prognosis

"I don't mean to be a devil about it, but..."

Updated: 14.07.20 22:56

Virologist Drosten is currently relieved that the corona pandemic in Germany has so far been fairly mild. But he has a fear that even he is afraid of. 

Munich - The Corona pandemic has brought previously unknown faces onto the public stage. People who at the beginning of the year were able to walk the streets completely unmolested, but who are now recognized even with a protective mask* at the supermarket checkout. One of the most famous of these new celebrities is Christian Drosten*, who regularly comments on the latest findings about the virus via podcast.

The word of the native Emslander carries weight. Because from the very first week, he has been the voice of reason in everything. At least in large parts of the population, because of course a rising level of awareness always brings with it unpleasant side effects.

Drosten in the Corona Crisis: Virologist gets hate messages

The institute director of the Charité Berlin can also report on this. A message of hatred consisting of a blood serum and the message "drink this - then you will become immune" reached him, as Drosten explains in the Spiegel interview (article behind the payment barrier). Meanwhile, bad messages have "become the norm, often they are completely crazy texts full of spelling mistakes, some scribblers are simply pitiful, others are highly narcissistic, malicious and manipulative".

Far worse was a photomontage showing him together with the notorious concentration camp doctor Josef Mengele. As a reminder, the so-called angel of death had sent tens of thousands of people to their deaths during the Nazi regime, but evaded his responsibility by fleeing. The manipulated picture had been displayed.

Virologist Drosten is the enemy in the Corona crisis

Basically, Drosten states: "I think I got a thicker coat. That's quite good for me, because I'm not really the type who can protect himself well against such personal hostilities." But he also sees the positive side: "You can mature a little bit, you know, from that."

A thick skin is also required by the controversy that has broken out in the Bild editorial department about the results of a study on the risk of infection by children. The tabloid accuses the virologist of methodological errors and refers to statements made by other researchers. Among other things, Alexander Kekulé had criticized the study.

Drosten in the Corona Crisis: No useful studies on the risk of infection by children

The results of the study could lead to a delay in the reopening of schools and day care centres. In Spiegel, Drosten now explains the problems with this work. "Unfortunately, there are still no useful studies on this important question. And as long as the schools are closed, such studies cannot be carried out," says the Corona expert.

Therefore, the focus was on "how many viruses are in the throats of infected children". His team came to the conclusion that "at first glance, our data actually show that children who do not have symptoms sometimes have a viral load that is just as high as that of adult Covid-19 patients.

Drosten in the Corona Crisis: Bild-Zeitung does not appear in his everyday life

The suggestions of statistical experts had also been taken into account. Whereby it is important to him to emphasize that the experts quoted by the picture as the spearhead of criticism had already distanced themselves from the corresponding newspaper article. At the same time Drosten is determined to make a side blow to Germany's highest-circulation newspaper: "The last time I read the Bild was in the days of 'Boom-Boom-Boris'. The Bild-Zeitung is not part of my everyday life. No one I know reads the paper."

According to Drosten, he ignored the Twitter request from a Bild editor to comment on the study within an hour, not only because it would not have been possible to do so within the tight time frame. Because: "I also did not have the impression that the Bild newspaper was really interested in understanding the scientific problem. It was clear that they were planning a biased article."

Drosten in the corona crisis: tests possible from mid-February

Despite all these negative experiences, the family man draws many positive things from the past weeks. It is also thanks to the quick reaction of him and his team that Germany has come through the corona crisis very unscathed: "In mid-February, we had the university hospitals ready to do the diagnostics, and often they passed on their knowledge and material to other laboratories. In mid-February we were able to test for Sars-CoV-2 on a routine basis in Germany. This has hardly been done in any other country."

Already at carnival time, the case of an infected person from Baden-Württemberg, who had not travelled before, showed: "The virus already spread unnoticed in Germany. It had thus been possible to gain a one-month lead over Sars-CoV-2. This is the time frame "from infection* to death in the intensive care unit".

Drosten in the Corona Crisis: Without early tests up to "100,000 more deaths

Drosten speculates: "That is the reason why we are in such a good position today. If we hadn't been able to test so early, if we hadn't informed the politicians - I think we would have 50,000 to 100,000 more deaths in Germany now." He therefore also cannot understand the criticism of the shutdown, because "a pandemic wave was stopped with comparatively mild measures".

"I think the Corona deniers should be told to look abroad. We have achieved something in Germany that no comparable country in the world has managed to do," Drosten writes to the conspiracy theorists in their homework booklet. And he counters critics who want to see a backdown in the face of the loosening that is taking place with the following words: "Did anyone seriously think that we would make a shutdown that would never be reversed?

Drosten in the corona crisis: Navigator instead of captain or helmsman

But the Berlin-by-choice doesn't want to overestimate his own position: "My role in political consulting is being greatly exaggerated. It is largely a legend." He is by no means "the captain, nor the helmsman, at most perhaps a navigator. I read the charts." Which is no less important. Cult coach Jürgen Klopp now stands by Drosten and warns not to misinterpret his role. 

But Drosten is not only demonised by critics, but also revered by many more citizens. This in turn makes him uncomfortable: "There really are better scientists in Germany than me in virology. I don't think any of them think I'm the best. I'm only in the spotlight because I'm working on this virus."

Drosten in the Corona Crisis: Small outdoor parties probably possible

His previous work in the Corona crisis allows a positive view into the future. "It could well be that the virus will now leave us alone for quite some time," rejoices Drosten: "Perhaps we will escape a second shutdown. His cautious outlook for the coming weeks: "Celebrations could be possible if it takes place outside and there are not too many people gathering. You can certainly imagine that for this summer."

In which an adapted tactic would probably allow a more concentrated distribution of testing capacities: "There are newer calculations which say very clearly: If an outbreak is noticed, there is no need to start testing all possible contacts in the first place. You're always too late, inevitably." The new way is: "Instead just quarantine all contacts*. No longer a fortnight, now just a good week. The incubation period and the time you're contagious is much shorter than initially thought.

Drosten in the Corona Crisis: Making preparations for the winter now

Like his colleague Hendrik Streeck, Drosten also attributes the probably upcoming corona relaxation phase to the rising temperatures in summer. Accordingly, the coming weeks should also be used to take precautions for the probable increase in the number of infections in the direction of winter "by adjusting guidelines, replanning test logistics, and considering how to track incipient outbreaks". One thing that is already certain is "that there will be no congresses and conferences in autumn and winter either". Pure precautionary measures.

Whereby the virologist also emphasizes: "The danger of a virus mutation is never averted. "It can certainly be optimized through evolution - that's what scares me a little. And what it looks like then, whether it will be more deadly - we don't know", Drosten also pokes around in the dark: "I don't want to paint the devil on the wall either, but one suspects that something like this also happened with the Spanish flu in 1918: that the virus mutated towards winter". The pandemic killed an estimated 50 million people.

Japan reports that it has the Corona crisis largely under control. Could this country be a role model for Germany? This is what virologist Christian Drosten says. 

Drosten in the Corona Crisis: "On an extremely good path with vaccination".

But that would just be the worst case scenario. If this does not occur, an effective weapon against sars-CoV-2 could soon be deployed. Drosten expresses a special hope for the coming spring: "I am counting on the fact that by then there will not only be one vaccine*. In Germany this is running a bit in the background, but we are on an extremely good way with the vaccination.

Translated and reblogged Version - Original here