Is the second wave coming? Kekulé and Drosten fear another rise in the virus

Saskia Bücker, Thorsten Fuchs|21.05.2020, 11:12

• According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Europe should already now be preparing for a second deadly wave of coronavirus infections.
• The paradox: At the same time, the number of new infections in Germany is at a low level.
• Alexander Kekulé and Christian Drosten do not make definitive statements, but emphasise that a renewed increase in the number of infections is likely.

Germany eases up. Pubs and restaurants are opening, employees are going back to the office, indoor sports and fitness studios are starting up again, and summer holidays can be booked. According to the Robert Koch Institute, the number of new infections is currently at a low level. The daily newly determined reproduction rate has also been below the critical mark of 1 for several days now. According to the RKI situation report, around 40 percent of intensive care beds are free (as of 19 May). So do people in this country no longer have to worry about getting infected or experiencing a collapse of the health care system?

Probably not. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Europe should already be preparing for a second deadly wave of coronavirus infections. It is "time for preparation, not celebration," the WHO Regional Director for Europe, Hans Kluge, told The Telegraph newspaper in the UK on Monday. He alluded directly to the fact that most European countries are currently relaxing their strict containment measures.

Virologist Kekulé finds image of a "second wave" inappropriate

We must be able to make the virus visible on a massive scale immediately. Virologist Alexander Kekulé

Alexander Kekulé, virologist and infection epidemiologist at Halle University Hospital, does not see the situation quite so gloomy. In an interview with the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland, he describes the picture of the deadly "second wave" of the pandemic as misleading - because it is not about an all-devouring threat that threatens in autumn, but rather about many small fire sources that could, however, unite to form one big fire if they are not discovered and released early.

In order to make precisely this early extinguishing possible, Kekulé relies not only on the consistent use of masks but also on a massive expansion of testing capacities: "We must be able to make the virus visible on a massive scale," says the virologist. Germany should be able to test half a million people a day by then, he demands - above all with rapid tests that show a result within a few minutes and should be obligatory, for example, on entry at airports or before visits to hospitals and nursing homes.

Increase in new infections feared in autumn

In his view, a German-French initiative, for example in the form of a jointly financed factory producing tests on a large scale for Europe, would be ideal for this purpose: "I would like Mrs Merkel and Mr Macron to put the issue of prophylactic tests on the agenda at their next meeting, in addition to economic issues.

However, Kekulé is almost certain that the number of infections will increase again in the autumn. In his opinion, Sars-CoV-2 behaves no differently in this respect than other corona or influenza viruses, which spread much more strongly during the cooler seasons. The decline now is due not only to the measures taken but also to the rising temperatures. "In autumn, however, the infection pressure will rise again significantly," warns Kekulé. The initial situation will then be worse than at the beginning of this year, as the virus is already spread worldwide. "We must therefore be well prepared for the autumn."

Drosten: Rediscovering the scope for action in view of infection figures

Even Charité virologist Christian Drosten does not expect the situation to remain stable in the long term. Although he was recently very impressed by the course of events in Germany, he is still not convinced. "I find it very positive that we still do not have a sustained increase in the number of infections," he said in the NDR podcast. After drastic measures such as contact closures at the beginning, a phase with a gradual return to normal behaviour is now following.

This could also work. However, this does not mean that it will stay that way forever. Especially since the increased virus outbreaks in slaughterhouses could be a further indication that the virus spreads better, especially in colder temperatures.

Infectiologist Stoll: What effect will travelling have?

According to Matthias Stoll, infectiologist at the Hanover Medical School, the fact that the number of new infections is at a comparatively low level is an indication of the appropriateness of gradual relaxation. "However, it cannot be predicted that further - already announced - relaxation will not lead to an increase in the number of infections in the future," Stoll told the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND).

Because of the delay in reporting new infections to the health authorities, one should not under any circumstances lull oneself into a false sense of security too soon. "The travel activities only really begin again over the Whitsun days and then with the beginning of the holiday season. We must therefore remain vigilant. The conditions for an outbreak are especially favorable in the fall. It could well be that Germany will experience a second major wave. But an exact prediction is difficult. "We haven't known the virus long enough.

Translated and reblogged Version - Original here