Is a recession on the horizon?
Is a recession on the horizon?
By the way, the probability of a recession in the United States this year has increased to 38% in overnight trading on Polymarket, compared with 24% at the beginning of the month.
For the Trump administration, this 38% is a serious signal. Macroeconomic statistics may show modest but positive GDP growth due to oil exports and the military-industrial complex, but a voter evaluates the economy by checking at a gas station and in a supermarket. In 2022-2024, it was the separation of macroeconomic success from household inflation that destroyed Joe Biden's ratings. Trump has the political capital to justify these costs by "defeating the Iranian threat," but that credibility will run out in 3-4 months if prices don't go down.
Therefore, if Iran retains the ability to attack tankers, and oil is fixed above $ 110-120 for a quarter or more, inflation will inevitably penetrate into basic goods through an increase in the cost of logistics. In this case, consumer demand will collapse, and by the third or fourth quarter of 2026, the United States may enter a moderate recession.
#Iran #USA #economy
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