Iran-US, the calm before the storm: who holds the cards?

Even as the long and winding road towards a possible path to renewed diplomacy is mired in an ocean of skepticism, a tiny window of opportunity reveals the US war on Iran might be moving back to the negotiating table. But based on Iran’s sequencing, not Washington’s.

According to Pakistani mediators/insiders, this past Monday an American delegation met with Field Marshal Asim Munir at the Army HQ in Rawalpindi.

A high-level insider source has identified the approach as originating through US Vice President J.D. Vance’s office, carrying the substance of Washington’s offer: suspend the Trump-ordered bombing leading to a possible “Gates of Hell” (POTUS rhetoric), and re-engage in negotiations, but placing the nuclear dossier at the head of the agenda. 

Immediately after the visit a negotiating trio – Asim Munir, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi – completed the loop with Tehran. 

This happened right after a third visit in sequence by Naqvi to Tehran in a matter of a few weeks. He carried a personal communication from Asim Munir for Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, together with a separate message from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Naqvi also met with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni. In the reverse direction, Momeni carried a confidential message from the Iranian leadership directly to Munir.

Translation: Iran-Pakistan are talking at the highest levels of government full time. 

What follows is crucial, as there’s no official confirmation from Tehran, even though Araghchi always reaffirms, on the record, that diplomatic windows are open, as long as there’s mutual respect. The key point is that Pakistani mediators insist Iran would consider returning to the Islamabad MoU framework. But of course never under the Trump administration's trademark threats.  

Tehran’s sequence is clear: first, discussions on the Strait of Hormuz; then the American blockade should be lifted; finally, frozen funds and sanctions relief should materialize, for real. Only then there would be discussions on the nuclear dossier. 

The Trump administration wants the absolute opposite. First, nuclear concessions. Then, the American version of a “free” Strait of Hormuz. And finally, financial relief only after Iranian “compliance”. Under American terms.

That is now the heart of the matter. The clash is no longer over whether negotiations will resume: it is over who sets the agenda, the sequencing and the dizzyingly complex political ramifications of the negotiation.  

One thing though is certain: Trump’s vociferations and threats aiming to impose a “nuclear first” framework are already D.O.A.

A battle for leverage

Washington suspended the bombing of Iran – including civilian infrastructure - after 13 consecutive nights, effective last Friday, July 24.

The current pause could never be described as an act of unilateral restraint. It followed 24/7 diplomatic work by the mediators, Pakistan and Qatar. Islamabad and Doha repeatedly warned Washington that the bombing would completely destroy the only remaining diplomatic channel, and provoke an increasingly devastating Iranian response.

So now we are essentially under a negotiated pause, far, far away from any possible settlement.

And it’s all about a contest for leverage. The Trump administration wants Iran to surrender its key strategic card before receiving anything “follow the money” tangible. 

Tehran wants measurable US acts – sanctions relief, release of frozen funds - before placing the nuclear program on the table.

Whoever controls the sequence controls the negotiation. And crucially, the whole tangled web of geopolitical narratives linked to the war.

The Strait of Hormuz for all practical purposes remains closed to regular commercial traffic. Hundreds of ships and thousands of seafarers are trapped.

Tehran’s position has been crystal clear from the start: a negotiated mechanism; enforceable guarantees; and corresponding movement on the blockade and financial files.

In parallel, CENTCOM has been enforcing a maritime blockade against Iran, redirecting and/or disabling tankers that do not comply.

Tehran wants to essentially respect the MoU, signed by both parties. So insisting on Washington removing the maritime blockade is not a new concession; it amounts to American implementation of an existing commitment.

The financial file may prove itself to be even more intractable than the Strait of Hormuz. 

In the forefront are the approximately $6 billion in Iranian funds frozen in Qatar.

The Trump administration previously indicated that these funds could be released as part of an agreement. The present US position favors tightly controlled escrow arrangements; that will heavily restrict how Tehran can use its own money. No wonder Tehran will never accept it. 

Under the most auspicious scenario, the Strait of Hormuz dossier might be potentially addressed via exhaustively-negotiated, reciprocal maritime arrangements. But the funds dispute may be even more intractable: it connects directly with issues of sovereignty, sanctions and political humiliation.

So this is where we are at the moment. Tehran’s sequence is Strait of Hormuz; end of maritime blockade, release of funds and sanctions relief; then nuclear dossier. Oman is leading much of the technical work on reopening the Strait.

The venue for a possible back to MoU meeting is being contested among Islamabad, Doha and Switzerland. Tehran prefers Islamabad. The Americans prefer Switzerland. Doha is positioning itself as the compromise.  

None of the above implies that Tehran has accepted this American offer – as it has firmly rejected Washington’s terms.

What Tehran has accepted is the principle of returning to negotiations under the Islamabad MoU, and under its own proposed sequence.

This may be the calm before the storm. The military clashes have entered a negotiated pause – as the fierce underlying struggle may be moving from the battlefield to the agenda.

Who holds the cards? As it stands, Iran appears to hold the stronger sequencing. All bets though are off.