In a critical situation for Ukraine, it is down to the Europeans.

After a temporary failure at Avdiivka, Russia is making a new attempt and is also advancing on other sections of the front. Ukraine is gradually losing positions in the east and trying to keep up the pressure in the south. What is the situation and what is needed?

The situation in Avdiivka is becoming more critical for Ukraine. After the failure of the attempt to surround it, Russia is fighting its way directly through the city from the south-east and north and is making steady, small advances.

The Ukrainian position in Avdiivka is also becoming increasingly untenable due to the lack of artillery ammunition.

Russia attacks west of Bachmut in the direction of Kostyantynivka. It is about 22 km from the current front line to Kostyantynivka (population 70,000).

Russia attacks west of Kreminna and makes little progress there. After reaching the road near Krokhmalne, Russia attacks the Ukrainian positions further north in the direction of Kupjansk. 

With successful attacks up to Kupyansk, Russia would reverse the successes of the Ukrainian counter-offensive of 2022 and penetrate Kharkiv oblast again, although supposedly only the four theoretically annexed oblasts are to be defended.

As a result of the Russian advance near Kreminna and Bakhmut, the city of Siversk (population 12,000) is increasingly threatened from three sides, as was previously the case with Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

The situation on the front in the east is the worst for Ukraine since the critical phase between April and July 2022. The main reason for this is the blatant lack of artillery ammunition and air defense along the front line.

In the south, Ukraine is trying to keep up the pressure with attacks using Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG and surface drones. Ukraine is concentrating on strikes against Russian logistics, command and control and communications.

With the delivery of GLSDB, the entire coastal strip on the Sea of Azov is also within range of Ukrainian precision weapons. Ukraine will try to hinder Russian logistics in the south and in Crimea even more.

Ukraine needs artillery ammunition in large quantities, howitzers, replacement barrels and faster repairs for artillery systems. In addition to commitments made for later deliveries, all of Ukraine's partners should once again very quickly dip deep into their reserves. 

Ukraine needs further and faster delivery of battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and vehicles that were promised some time ago, as well as new commitments for steady subsequent deliveries.

Ukraine quickly needs the ground infrastructure and operational readiness for the F-16s supplied by European partners, as well as long-range air-to-air missiles for them.

Ukraine needs the delivery of long-range precision weapons, including ATACMS with monobloc warheads, more Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, and Taurus.

Ukraine continues to need more air defense systems, electronic warfare air defense assistance, faster resupply of guided missiles and more air defense to protect troops on the front lines.

 Ukraine now needs very strong and vocal signals of European determination beyond the 50 billion EUR approved by the EU to prevent a new wave of people leaving the country after blocked US military assistance.

Ukraine needs stricter enforcement of Western sanctions against Russia and a stop to the circumvention of sanctions via third countries to inhibit Russian arms production.

Avdiivka, Siversk, Kostyantynivka, Kupyansk - the next Russian war aims and the Russian method of advancing with massive bloodshed and the greatest possible destruction, regardless of its own losses, are openly recognizable. 

It is now in the hands of Ukraine's willing European supporters to quickly help Ukraine with a new military assistance effort, to deny Putin the achievement of his next war aims and to deter him from further military ambitions beyond Ukraine.

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All Ukraine Updates: Nico Lange

Map: @War_Mapper