If Russia launches an attack on Ukraine, what might it look like? Here are some possibilities

There have also been reports of troops landing by sea at the Black Sea port cities of Mariupol and Odesa in the south. A British resident of Odesa told the BBC many people were leaving. There are reports of attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure across the country, and Russian convoys entering from all directions. A full-on assault of Ukraine, with Russian forces attacking from the north, east and south, would aim to encircle the most potent arm of the Ukrainian military in the east, as well as make a move on the capital.

But Mr Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership. If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further. We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This week, Mr Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. Fighting between Russian, pro-Russian and Ukrainian forces is still ongoing in the region.

At the same time, Russian officials continue to insist the troop buildup is just part of military exercises, even as their rhetoric grows more belligerent. Much of the fighting appears to be centred around the east of the country. But clashes have also been taking place around Kyiv and the Black Sea port cities of Odesa and Mariupol. The Ukrainian armed forces said they had shot down five Russian planes and a helicopter - which Russia denies - and inflicted casualties on invading troops. Cyber attacks will likely play a part in any offensive such as by targeting critical infrastructure like power supplies.

For one, Russia could choose to cut off or limit oil and gas exports to Europe as retaliation for sanctions. Nearly 40% of the natural gas used by the European Union comes from Russia — and no European country imports more than Germany, a key ally of the United States. Russia is a major exporter of oil and natural gas, especially to Europe.

Ukraine will press Russia around Crimea

Russian forces could move to secure a canal that Kyiv shut down in 2014. The closing of the canal has created a chronic water supply problem on the Russian-held peninsula. Moscow could also try to forge a land bridge between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, possibly linking up with territory held by pro-Russian separatists. While the world's attention has focused on Russia's troop buildup on its land border with Ukraine, Moscow also has expanded its naval power near Ukraine's coast, including amphibious forces and naval infantry, experts said. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region. Ukraine will probably try to exploit the success it has had in re-establishing its control over the western Black Sea and its vital trade corridor to the Bosphorus.

• William Courtney, an adjunct senior fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation, was U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia, and U.S.-USSR negotiations to implement the Threshold Test Ban Treaty.
• Other planned measures will impact the banking and finance sectors.
• On 27 and 28 February 2022, both Ukranian and Russian officials met on the Belarusian border for the first round of peace talks.
• In other words - any full-scale invasion could be over in a matter of a few days.

So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. Russia wants assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato; that Nato members will have no permanent forces or infrastructure based in Ukraine; and for a halt to military exercises near Russia's border.

In such a scenario, Russian public opinion could turn against Putin. "They have been warning everyone about Russia's very specific tactics about the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure," Katerina Sedova, a researcher at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told NPR. The United States and its allies can consider expanding the companies subject to the current sanctions or imposing more severe restrictions such as full blocking sanctions, which include an asset freeze and prohibit all transactions. More structurally, it has broken the entire security architecture built patiently on the continent over many decades, including international commitments agreed in the last 30 years.

• But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members such as cyber and hybrid warfare, and even physical attacks.
• Crowdfunding military equipment for Ukraine – already successful in Lithuania – shows that the general international public is sympathetic and wants to play its part in this process.
• A British resident of Odesa told the BBC many people were leaving.
• But the president has imposed martial law across the country, saying that Ukraine was "ready for everything".

But if Ukraine’s experience is anything to go by, the threat posed by a common enemy could have a unifying effect. Kyiv’s politicians used to be notoriously fractious – not least because of divisions between the pro and anti-Russian camps. Once Putin rolled his tanks in, pro-Russian sentiment largely vanished. While https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-is-europe-not-helping-ukraine.html was a useful exercise in Armageddon planning, 21st-century Britain is arguably less ready for actual warfare than it was even 30 years ago.

• Now Russia have confirmed plans to invade Ukraine, although Vladimir Putin has said he has no plans to "occupy" the country, various states have confirmed that Russia will face harsh sanctions.
• Russia’s military is likely to make a formal entrance into the territories soon.
• This would put the "largest and most combat-effective friendly military on the European continent" at the forefront of NATO's defence, according to the thinktank.

As in Ukraine, office techies could be in demand to operate drones on the front lines and to fend off cyberattacks. There is no doubt Ukraine's armed forces will fight to the death if attacked but the superior firepower of Russia's military means they could be quickly overwhelmed. Blaming Nato's expansion eastwards is a Russian narrative that has gained some ground in Europe. Before the war, President Putin demanded Nato turn the clock back to 1997 and remove its forces and military infrastructure from Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Nato member states have increasingly sent Ukraine air defence systems to protect its cities, as well as missile systems, artillery and drones that helped turn the tide against Russia's invasion.

• Putin has repeatedly warned that Ukraine’s attempts to join NATO are a red line for Russia.
• Russia’s human losses are enormous and, in spite of censorship, becoming known to the Russian public.
• President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control.