IMO deal shines light on bumpy road to 2050: ClassNK chief

NET ZERO shipping around 2050 remains a challenging target but the direction to get there has become clearer, especially after the draft deal reached at the International Maritime Organization, according to ClassNK president and chief executive Hayato Suga.

In an interview with Lloyd’s List, Suga said the IMO’s net-zero framework, which includes a two- tier carbon pricing system, is a “positive” move that paves the way for stakeholders to take future actions, echoing many of his industry peers.

That said, scepticism about the IMO resolution is also widespread, from its complex carrot- and-stick mechanism, to a lack of ambitious carbon pricing that could fail to effectively close the cost gap with fossil fuels.

Suga, who assumed the chief executive role at the Japanese class society in March, acknowledged regulatory uncertainty remained, with many details in the new rules still to be finalised, while some adjustments may also be required.

Defining what qualifies as zero- or near-zero carbon fuels, and how to reward them, will be crucial.

Fuel producers are awaiting stronger demand signals, including those from shipping. Suga said an investigation by ClassNK found that the vast majority of green fuel projects — including e-methanol and e-ammonia — are still in the planning stage, with only a handful having reached final investment decision or entered production.

That comes as Japan’s two largest refiners recently said they would scale back green projects, including hydrogen, ammonia and synthetic fuels, due to a slowing trend towards carbon neutrality.

Asked if he was concerned about this broader slowdown, Suga said: “If nations worldwide decide to postpone [the green transition], that’s a different story. But most of us still want to hit the 2050 target, so it’s still necessary to produce the zero-carbon fuels.”

For class societies, the growing focus on environment and decarbonisation also poses higher demands on those organisations traditionally focused on certification services for existing technology and equipment.

The continuous emergence of new technologies and technical solutions is driving classification societies to engage more quickly and proactively in thinking about and shaping “what’s next”, Suga said.

The push is growing stronger for them to accelerate innovation and expand their expertise in areas such as alternative fuels, emissions measurement and smart shipping.

Like some of its peers, ClassNK conducted cost simulations on ships burning different fuels shortly after last month’s IMO agreement, as published in the latest edition of its Alternative Fuels Insights.

Key findings include that the continued use of conventional fuel oil from 2028 to 2050 will result in regulatory compliance costs rising to a level comparable to fuel costs by 2035; while using bio-methane throughout the period appears to be the most economical option, with the lowest overall costs, including shipbuilding, regulatory, and fuel expenses.

But ClassNK also said considering the limited bio-methane availability, sustained use would face challenges, requiring fuel transitions. Meanwhile, switching from B100 biofuel to e-ammonia once the latter drops to a reasonable price is optimal, it added.

The simulation was based on a 64,000 dwt bulker carrier, assuming 10% of total voyage distance covered by EU emissions rules. It also assumed bio-methane price remains at $25 per GJ — about double that of heavy fuel oil — while e-ammonia falls gradually from $64 per GJ in 2028 to $20.8 by 2050.

Suga reckons various future fuels may co- exist in the future market, due to production availability and different government backing.

He said the focus on environment and emissions has now gone beyond shipping and shipbuilding — and, within maritime, the journey to a greener future requires collaborating with other industries.

“Addressing environmental challenges and digital transformation have made boundaries between industries more blurred,” he said. “The change is happening rapidly.

“2050 still looks like a difficult target, but we have to find the solution and try to achieve that.”

Lloyd's List Daily Briefing 2 June 2025

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