How To Beat Point Spread Basketball

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How To Beat Point Spread Basketball

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Home » Sports Betting » Point Spreads
If you place wagers on US sports, then chances are high that you’ve heard of point spreads. Here’s how they work; if a game has Patriots -9.0 and Vikings +9.0, the Patriots are 9.0 point favorites and the Vikings are 9.0 point underdogs. Unless otherwise stated, no matter which team you bet on, you’ll be required to risk $1.10 for each $1.00 you want to win. For Patriots bettors to prevail, they need their team to win by 10 or more points. A 9-point Patriot victory would be a push (a tie). For Vikings bettors to take home the victory, they need to either win the game or lose by less than 9 points.
Point spreads are used since most recreational bettors prefer to wager even money propositions. In the above example, if there was no point spread, only moneyline betting would exist. So, if odds makers are giving the New England Patriots a 73% chance of winning a game, then in order to take bets and still have a small profit margin, the bookmaker would have no choice but to require Patriot bettors to stake $3.00 or more for each $1.00 they want to win.
With a point spread, the odds are balanced, so you usually have to risk just $1.10 to win $1.00. This makes the point spreads appealing to recreational bettors, who often think it’s easy to make money from them. We have to be honest with you; it’s NOT easy, but it IS possible. The strategy we cover in this article should help!
We’ve provided a brief explanation of point spreads in our introduction here, but if you’d like to know more about this type of wager then please read our beginner’s guide to betting point spreads .
Strategy for betting point spreads is obviously different for each sport and league, but these four tips are general enough to apply to them all.
Let’s go over each of these tips in a little more detail.
One way to make money from sports betting is to open an account at an online betting site and take advantage of their sign up bonus. This gives you extra money to wager with, and since point spreads are so straightforward, it can be relatively easy to meet the associated wagering requirements and still come out ahead. Repeating this process at multiple betting sites will maximize your potential returns! We just ask that you please stick with reputable sites, like any of the ones that we recommend.
We already mentioned how using multiple betting sites allows you to take advantage of multiple bonus offers. That’s not the only benefit either. Since point spreads vary between sites, one of the best ways to beat these wagers is to compare the different spreads in order to find which one is the most favorable. This doesn’t take nearly as long as you might think, and it will make a huge difference to your bottom line over time.
Let’s take a hypothetical game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots as an example. One site might have the spread as follows.
Another site might offer a slightly different spread.
If you’re betting in favor of the Patriots, then you should be betting with Bookmaker A. If the Patriots win by more than seven points, then you’ll win with either bookmaker. However, if they win by exactly seven points, you’ll lose with Bookmaker B. With Bookmaker A, you’ll push and get your stake returned.
On the other hand, if you’re betting on the Bills, then Bookmaker B will be your best option. A Bills loss of exactly seven points would be a push at Bookmaker A, but it would be a win for you at Bookmaker B.
It’s only a half-point difference, and that might not seem like a lot. The bookmakers tend to be very accurate with their spreads though, and an extra half-point in your favor can easily add up to extra profits over time.
Many novice bettors fail to understand the impact of home advantage when wagering on sport events. When looking at the board for potential wagers, these bettors tend to get excited and bet on lots of superior teams favored on the road against weaker opponents. The betting market is so much more advanced than this, and for the most part point spreads are always going to be 50/50 propositions.
We’re not saying that you should never bet on road favorites. Just make sure that you have good reasons to do so. Keep in mind; they don’t just need to win, they need to win by a greater margin than the spread suggests they will.
While understanding key numbers is beneficial for betting point spreads on any sport, key numbers are known for having the most significance in football. In NFL football, most games are decided by three or seven points. Therefore, when shopping the odds, the difference between -7.0 and -6.5 is far greater than the difference between -5.5 and -5.0.
With some betting sites odds, certain games are priced differently than risking $1.10 to win $1.00 (which is called -110 odds). For example, you might see the Giants priced at -105 and +7 in a game against the Jets. Now, you only have to risk $1.05 to win $1.00. This is obviously better odds, but it’s very likely that they will lose by exactly seven to give you a push. Taking -110 and +7.5 with an alternative bookmaker is actually the better bet.
Getting your head around these kind of intricacies, as well as knowing the relevant key numbers, is vital if you want to bet on the point spreads successfully.
Now that we’ve got the basic tips covered, we want to provide you with some point spread betting tips specific to two of the most popular US sports: football and basketball.
One of the best ways to beat football point spread betting is to use teasers. A teaser is a form of a parlay bet using modified point spreads. Each point spread you select is moved 6 points in your favor. For example, let’s say you’re interested in betting on the following.
A teaser would give you a single wager with the following spreads.
Each selection is obviously easier to get right with the spread moved in your favor, but you do have to get all three correct in order for your wager to win.
If you want to learn how to beat this form of wagering, you’ll definitely want to read our article on betting football teasers .
Another way to beat football point spreads is to shop for off market prices. For example, let’s say you’re shopping online betting sites and see every site is offering Vikings +7.0. Then, you stumble upon one site that’s offering +7.5. There’s a good chance that this is a +EV wager, simply because it is out of sync with every other site. Please note that this strategy isn’t quite the same as simply shopping for the best lines. Here, you’re specifically looking for wagers that are +EV because they’re against the market.
It’s also important to consider whether or not there’s any correlation between the point spread and the betting total. If they are, a parlay wager is a good way to get maximum value. For example, a college football point spread +24.5 parlayed with under 48 points in the same game might be a great parlay bet. If the +24.5 team covers the point spread, then there’s an increased chance that the game also goes under the posted total of 48.
Finally, you might want to think about learning the correct strategies for buying half-points in football . While many people are against this method, we’re here to tell you that there are some circumstances where buying points can be profitable.
Buying half points is a strategy that can work for basketball too. Most online betting sites offer bettors the ability to purchase half-points at 10 cents each. Let’s say the Lakers are -6.5 at odds of -110 for example. Here of some of the options you can expect to see.
A great strategy for betting basketball point spreads is to shop dozens of betting sites for the best line, and then purchase as many half points as possible (provided they are priced 10 cents each).
When using this strategy, it’s helpful to know the most common margins of victory in NBA basketball and how often they occur.
This information shows us that nearly half the games finish with one of the eight point margins listed, and this isn’t the result of variance. Some margins of victory occur more frequently than others because of end game strategy. The winning team is often found running the clock, while the losing team if often found intentionally fouling.
The key here is to target the point spread five and seven, because these are virtually tied as the most common margins of victory. It’s important to recognize that most betting sites are only willing to sell 2 or 3 half points for 10 cents each, after which point they start charging more. Some sites sell up to four half points at this price though.
To show how this can be exploited, take a point spread of -8.5 at odds of -110. This is a 50/50 proposition. Let’s assume you’ve purchased enough points to move the spread to -6.5 at odds of -150. Now, you’d win instead of lose 6.24% of the time they win by 8, and 6.59% of the time they win by 7. Add these together with the 50% from the original proposition, and we get 62.83%.
Go to our odds converter , and you’ll see that the implied probability of -150 is 60%. This means you need to win 60% of the time to break even. However, our handicapping shows the actual probability of winning is 62.38%.
If we risked $150 to win $100 on this -150 line, 62.38% of the time we would win $100. And 37.62% of the time we would lose $150. This gives us an expected profit of $5.95 for every $150 risked.
If you only make large +EV bets such as the basketball example above, betting sites will limit the amount you’re allowed to wager. It’s not uncommon for online bookmakers to spot a skilled bettor and say, “Okay you can keep wagering here, but the maximum you’re allowed to bet per game is $500.00.”
If you keep betting and winning, they might decrease your limits even further. That’s why we recommend trying to hide the fact that you’re so sharp. By placing some random wagers and occasionally spending some time at their casino, you’ll have a much better chance of staying under the radar.
This is also another good reason for using multiple sites. Since there are so many different reputable betting sites to choose from, it would take you a long time to get limited at every single one of them.

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Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach LaVine #8 of the Chicago Bulls.
The NBA regular season is a grind, not just for players and coaches but for bettors and oddsmakers alike. There are 30 teams and an 82-game season in addition to a two-month-long postseason. Like any other major market, predicting the outcome of an NBA game is difficult.
Yet, it’s even more difficult to consistently beat the point spread set by oddsmakers enough to overcome the vig (or juice) needed to make a profit — typically 52.38% on -110 bets.
However, there are ways to gain an edge betting the NBA. With a new season on the horizon, there’s no better time than now to discuss my approach to betting NBA on a nightly basis and learn more about how to bet on basketball effectively.
One of the best ways to gain an edge when betting NBA games is to start betting as soon as the markets open each morning. If you’re on the East Coast, that means you have to be available to bet around 8-9 a.m. ET.
In a market as big as the NBA, nothing slips between the cracks. Injury news, inefficiencies within the market and lines that are off are corrected quickly as the sharpest bettors and betting syndicates in the world look to snatch up the value on NBA sides and totals before the value is sucked out of the line.
Oddsmakers and bettors get more information on games as we get closer to tip-off, so betting early allows you to capitalize on the mistakes on the initial lines that oddsmakers release before they are corrected.
Since bookmakers adjust their lines based on the action they receive, injury news an other factors, the lines become more accurate and harder to beat as the day gets on.
One of the biggest predictive indicators of a winning long-term bettor is to consistently beat the closing line. Betting early allows you to generate Closing Line Value and get better odds then what the line closes at tipoff.
We’ve compiled some numbers on NBA point spreads against closing lines over the past 10 years using information from our Bet Labs database. You can see in the chart below that there’s a ton of value in getting ahead of the market as your win percentage increases with every half point that bettors beat the closing line.
Although limits do increase throughout the day, the ability to get CLV decreases the closer you get to tip-off, so if you’re looking to get the best of the number consistently, you should be betting early.
Now, there are times when it is advantageous to bet later in the day.
Imagine a game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings at the Crypto.com Arena. Since the Lakers have LeBron James and are a popular team, it’s likely we’d see the public push the Lakers’ line up to the point where you can find more value on backing the underdog Kings closer to tip off.
Sports betting is the ultimate multi-player game. You aren’t just competing with just the bookmaker, you’re competing with thousands of other sports bettors who are shaping the market with their opinion.
Understanding what the vast majority of the public, as well as seasoned professionals, think about a game will allow you to properly read the market and know when to time your bets to get the best value.
The impact of NBA injuries can’t be understated when it comes to betting. Unlike football where there’s 11 players on each side of the ball or baseball where there’s nine players, a basketball team only plays five players at a time, meaning one player can have more impact on the game than in any other team sport.
While you can gain an edge from betting early, sometimes you can find yourself in the dark on injury news which comes out throughout the day. My suggestion would be to approach the NBA in shifts. Bet in the early morning, but make sure you’re available in the afternoon to stay tuned into injury news and look to bet on games where an injury could have a significant impact to game.
In the era of load management, it’s common for star players to sit out of back-to-back games, so you need to anticipate which players might sit out based on recent play, news reports and the betting markets. There are slower moving sportsbooks that aren’t as quick to react to injury news when moving their spreads and totals and that is one of the best spots for bettors to gain an edge.
Understanding how coaches approach playing also plays a significant role here. Certain coaches prefer to go all out during the regular season, while others are more likely to sit stats. For example, New York Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau is known to push his team to play hard every night while San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich, or L.A. Clippers head coach Tyron Lue more likely to load manage their stars.
Coaches can sometimes tip their hand a bit leading up to games when talking to beat writers, so pay attention to what they say (and don’t say) in their press conferences and media availability.
Although the NBA has taken steps to reduce the amount of back-to-backs, NBA teams will average 13.5 back-to-backs, with no-rest games (the second of the back-to-backs) this season. While this accounts for less than 17% of their 82 games, these are spots bettors can capitalize on.
Unfortunately, this season there are no stretches where a team plays four games in five nights, so that’s not something we can isolate. However, the Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trailblazers and San Antonio Spurs have have stretches where they play eight games in 12 nights.
Keep this in mind during the season and look to fade these teams during these stretches where they’re likely to have tired legs.
The two-game series is a newer scheduling quirk introduced during the pandemic to reduce the travel during last season’s condensed schedule. There will be 23 two-game series in the same arena and there’s certainly an advantage to seeing two teams play back-to-back.
Last season the team that lost the first game of the two-game series was 27-14-12 (65.9%) against the spread.
Pace is one of the biggest factors when handicapping totals in the NBA. The number of possessions in a game can determine how high-scoring a matchup will be just as much as a team’s offensive efficiency.
Last season, the Washington Wizards ranked 18th in Offensive Rating, but were third in points per game (116.6) because they played at the fastest Pace in the league (106.4). Calculating Pace will provide you with a solid expectation of the number of possessions for the rest of the game.
Here’s Basketball-Reference’ s definition of Pace as well as their formula:
Pace – Pace Factor (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); the formula is 48 * (( Tm Poss + Opp Poss ) / (2 * ( Tm MP / 5))). Pace factor is an estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team. (Note: 40 minutes is used in the calculation for the WNBA.)
There are plenty of questions to ask yourself when looking to play totals:
Is this a matchup between a fast pace team playing a slow pace team? Which team is likely to impose its will on the ot
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