How Football Spread Betting Works
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How Football Spread Betting Works
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NFL Betting
Reduced Juice - Loot explains how reduced odds football betting works and where you can find this valuable asset.
What is a Point Spread? - Many new to the game struggle to understand why one side has a (+) while the other has a (-) in front of a team. We explain what the spread is and how it works.
Football Bets - All the different types of wagers that you can make when betting on football games.
What Professional Handicappers Do - Learn the tricks of the trade and increase your odds of beating the books!
Key Numbers - The article that bookies don't want you to read!
NFL Betting Quiz - Test your football wagering prowess with Loot's 10 question quiz!
Super Bowl 52 Predictions - Loot gives his preseason picks for which teams are most likely to win "the big game" along with middle of the road and a longshot that is sure to surprise you!
2017 NFL Season Wins Predictions - Loot breaks down every team and gives his opinion on how they'll do vs. the number!
2017 NFL Bye Weeks - The first set start in Week 5 and the final byes take place in Week 11. Loot also gives tips on betting on teams coming off byes. 2017 NFL Coaching Changes - We seem to be in an era where football coaches become disposable in an instant if they don't win. 2016 was no different as a handful of teams made the switch. Check out who went where right here!
MISC.
Famous Football Players - Biographies of the best and greatest NFL football players of all-time.
Greatest NFL Players of All Time - A list of all time greats at each position. Each position has it's own dedicated article!
Best Quarterbacks of All Time - Joe Montana heads our list of top 10 QB's, however, Tom Brady is a sure bet to give him a run for his money by the time his career is said and done.
Best Running Backs of All Time - We list the top 10 greatest ball carriers of all-time. The order may be debatable, as Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton all brought something special to the gridiron.
Football Lingo - One must be very familiar with all of the terms, slang and jargon associated with this game to win at football betting. Find a slew of pigskin terminology right here!
Football Quotes - Funny and memorable sayings from around the National Football League including comments made by Vince Lombardi and John Madden.
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By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Football betting can seem confusing to some There are a ton of different betting options. We’ll get to those later. Let’s focus on the basics. The far-and-away most popular wager is called a straight bet. Now the point-spread comes into the picture. In football, you have teams that just flat-out better than the other team. Sometimes it will all even out, but not very often. In the great majority of games, there is a team that is better or has more favorable playing conditions. It might be by a little or a lot and that’s where the point-spread comes into play.
In other words, everyone knows Alabama is going to beat Western Carolina. Something needs to be in place to make each side of the bet attractive. So when you make Alabama a 50-point favorite, now it’s not a no-brainer anymore. Here’s how it will be listed:
Alabama -50 (-110)
Western Carolina +50 (-110)
This is how it will be expressed by the book. Alabama is -50, meaning they are giving up 50 points. If Alabama won the game 62-14, you would subtract 50 from their final score, which would make it 14-12, meaning Alabama would not “cover the spread.” Western Carolina would have 50 points added to their total making it 64-62 and they would cover. That was a pretty extreme example. Let’s look at a more customary point-spread.
Kansas City Chiefs +3
Oakland Raiders -3
A plus sign always indicates an underdog. A minus sign always indicates a favorite. In the above listed game, Kansas City is a 3-point underdog and Oakland is a 3-point favorite. To win a bet on Oakland, they have to win by more than 3 points. For Kansas City to win, they can either win the game or lose by under 3 points. If Oakland wins by exactly 3 points, the bet is considered a “push” and everyone gets their bet money returned.
You will be making these bets on money line, meaning you have to bet a little more than you stand to win. The normal line is -110, which means you have to bet $110 to win $100. Try to find a -105 line meaning you only have to bet $105 to win $100. You can cut your vig in half and save a lot over time. ( 5Dimes Sportsbook offers reduced odds)
Much of the betting public likes favorites. They like prominent teams and it’s illustrated by how they bet. The bookie, of course, knows this. Therefore, he doesn’t really need to go out of his way to get people to bet on those teams. People are going to bet on teams like the Patriots, Packers, or the Giants--those teams have a big national following. The bookie might give a point-spread of lesser value to those teams than he would with a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars, where it takes more to entice people to bet. Generally, the bookie doesn’t want one side getting all the action or they’d be on the hook if that side of the bet won.
Teams like the Patriots and Packers are usually pretty good, so they’re still going to win bets. The point is that there can be a lot of value found on teams that are not considered to be very good. Being a fan and a football bettor are two different things. With spreads, you can’t just blindly bet on the best teams and think everything is going to work out. You have to find which teams are getting point-spreads that are out-of-line, meaning they are being undervalued.
You will hear a lot of people trying to give you tips, but be careful whose advice you take to heart. As a betting man, you have a completely different set of concerns than the guy at work or the talking head on ESPN. Don’t let others poison your picks. Stephen A. Smith and Skip Bayless might know sports, but they know how to bet on sports the same way you know how to play the french horn.
In football betting, the main enemies are ourselves and the almighty juice (vig). It’s critical that we minimize the destructive impact of both of those sinister elements. Control and discipline is key. Forget about who the quarterback is on the team you’re betting for a minute and focus on the field general that lies within. The quarterback you’re betting on can play great, but if you’re botching it as the QB of your betting, it won’t matter. That means we all need to have a stoic single-mindedness on the long-run and never be thrown off-center, regardless of what temporary setbacks befall us. Too many people who get involved with football betting fail because they allow temporary problems to become permanent ones.
With vig, we have a choice. Those of us who had bet on a -110 line on college and pro football for years before finding a -105 line are still kicking ourselves over it. We could have been cutting our juice in half this whole time. Do yourself an immeasurable favor and get this edge of betting -105 instead of -110 in your corner. You don’t even have to work for it, like you do with every other edge you try to get when betting football.
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Point Spread
ATS data has no predictive value at all
Successful point spread betting is a marathon, not a sprint.
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Home » Football Betting » Point Spreads
There are several different types of football wager you can place,
and two of them are significantly more popular than the others.
The most popular of all is the point spread wager, followed by
the totals wager. In this article, we’re focusing on the point
spread.
Before you continue reading, if you’re interested, we have put together a short video to help you better understand point spreads.
If you have any interest at all in betting on football, then you
really should know how to bet the point spread effectively. It’s not
necessarily the “best” type of wager in terms of the potential for
winning money, but it’s relatively simple and does present some
profitable opportunities if you know what you’re doing.
On this page we teach you the basics of betting football point spreads. We explain how they work, and why
they’re so popular. We also explain the challenges involved in making money from them. Finally, we offer
some tips and strategy advice for placing wagers of this type.
The theory with point spreads is that a wager on either team to win a football game is as close to a 505/50
shot as possible. You’re not actually betting on which team will win the game, you’re betting on which team
will “cover the spread”. The favorite has to win by at least a certain number of points for a wager on them to
be successful, and the underdog has to lose by less than the same number of points for a wager on them to
be successful.
Another way to view it is that, for the purposes of the betting, the favorite has points deducted from their
score and the underdog has points added to their final score. The number of points varies, depending on the
gap in quality between two teams. If one team is much stronger than the other, the number of points can be
quite high (a big spread). If the two teams are more evenly matched, the number of points is low (a small
spread).
Here’s an example of a point spread that a bookmaker or betting site might offer for a football game
between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Denver Bronco.
The +6 for the Steelers means that they’ll have six points effectively added to their score. They’re the
underdog here. The -6 for the Broncos means that they’ll have six points effectively deducted from their
score, as they’re the favorite. You can choose to bet on the Steelers with their points advantage, or on the
Broncos with their points deduction. The following outcomes are possible.
That, in essence, is all there is to betting football point spreads. All successful wagers are paid out at the
relevant odds, which are typically -110. The odds can vary, but they’re almost always fairly close to even
money. One further thing we should mention is that spreads will often include half a point. So, for example,
you might see a team at +6.5. This makes a push impossible.
It’s difficult to say for sure why point spreads are so popular, but there are probably a number of reasons. We
suspect that the following are the most relevant for the majority of bettors.
The first reason listed here applies primarily to recreational bettors. Those who are serious about their
betting don’t really care what the odds are per se, they are primarily concerned with whether value exists or
not. And value can exist in both heavy favorites and complete outsiders in the right circumstances. For those
that bet just for fun, though, the concept of value is largely an irrelevance. They just want to know that they
have a fair chance of winning their wagers, and that’s exactly what point spreads offer. Even if you just picked
teams at random you could expect to win close to 50% of your wagers over the long run.
The second reason is also an appealing one for recreational bettors. Although most of them do want to win
money, of course, they’re not generally bothered about having to think too much about their betting. It’s all
about the fun, and so wagers that are nice and simple are ideal for them. Point spreads are an easy way to
throw a few bucks on a game, without having to put in a great deal of effort.
Making lopsided games more interesting is a clear advantage of the point spread, to all types of bettors.
Without this type of wager, there would rarely be much fun or value in betting on games where there is a
very clear favorite. Backing the favorite would offer very low odds, to the extent that it probably wouldn’t be
worth it, and the underdog would be so unlikely to win that there’d be no point in backing them either.
The final reason mentioned here is actually not a good reason to bet football point spreads at all. Many
people do believe it’s a relatively easy way to make money, but the reality is that it is not. We’ll now explain
why.
Seeing as we’ve said that you have a roughly 50% chance of winning a point spread wager even if picking a
team at random, you could be forgiven for thinking that with even a little bit of knowledge you should be able
to make money from this type of wager. You may well be able to, but it’s certainly not easy. There are two
main reasons for this.
If you’re not familiar with vig, please read our article on how bookmakers make money . Very briefly though,
vig is basically a commission that bookmakers charge. It’s effectively built into the odds, which is why point
spread wagers typically are at odds of around -110. You’ve got to risk $110 to win $100, which means you
have to win more than half of your wagers just to break even.
And winning more than your half of your wagers is tough, because the bookmakers are generally very
accurate when setting their lines. The spreads they publish are consistently very close to reflecting what
actually happens in games. This makes it very difficult to regularly predict which team is going to cover the
spread in a game.It’s certainly rare that you’ll see games where the outcome is obvious enough that you can
genuinely state with real confidence that one or the other team is going to cover.
There is an argument to say that there is little strategy involved in betting football point spreads these days.
This is primarily because of what we’ve outlined above, in that the lines are set so tightly by bookmakers that
football point spreads are basically coin flips. However, our view is that they can be profitable with the right
approach.
For one thing, bookmakers are not infallible. Although they’re very good at what they do, they still get it
wrong from time to time. And, even when they don’t, it’s still possible to get a high enough win percentage to
effectively “beat the vig”. It’s not easy, but it can be done.
We round off this article with some tips and strategy advice that may help you to get better results when
betting football point spreads.
This advice applies to virtually any form of football betting really. If you’re going to make money, then you
need to need to understand what’s involved in handicapping football games.A lot of bettors don’t bother to
learn about handicapping, often simply because they believe it’s really complicated. It’s not. There are some
complicated aspects to it, yes, but the fundamental concept is relatively straightforward.
In fact, there’s a very good chance that you’re already handicapping games without even realizing it.
Handicapping doesn’t have to involve using amazingly advanced scientific systems, it can be as simple as
taking into account a few factors that are likely to affect the outcome of a game and then working out where
the value lies. There’s obviously a bit more to it than that, but that’s basically what it’s about.
Please take the time to read our article explaining how to handicap football . We can almost guarantee
that it will teach you at least some aspects of football betting that you’re not aware of.
Statistics can be very valuable when betting football spreads. There are certain statistics in particular that
canreally help you compare two teams and make informed judgements about how they are likely to perform
against each other. However, there are other stats that are relatively useless. This doesn’t stop some bettors
relying on them though.
One such stat is a team’s ATS (against the spread) record. This basically refers to a team’s performance
against the lines set by the bookmakers, rather than their actual results. Let’s look at some hypothetical data
to explain this further. He
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