How Football Spread Betting Works
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How Football Spread Betting Works
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Betting on football is the core of the spread companies business, accounting for over half of all spread bets placed. They are reliant on TV coverage to generate interest. With all of the mid-week games and weekend games it is a fairly demanding schedule for the betting enthusiast, and as the spread companies are keen to keep clients betting regularly and on as many markets as possible it can be a real challenge not to fall into the habit of gambling indiscriminantly. With this in mind I am going to run through a couple of markets with you that will give you excess returns if played correctly.
The make-up of a shirt number spread is the combined total of the numbers of all the goal scorers during the game.
So if number 7 scored twice and number 3 scored once the make-up will be 17 (2 x 7 + 3). As we mentioned before spreads are generally based on public opinion, therefore if you research or have first hand experience of likely team sheets you will be able to determine better than the rest of the public what a likely shirt number make-up would be.
For example, say you are an Arsenal fan with your finger on the pulse on the goings on at the club and you hear that Nicklas Bendtner is likely to start. Now Nicklas Bendtner at the time of writing this is number 52 for Arsenal, with this information you can BUY the spread and then SELL once the information is made public via the line-ups being published and therefore the spread being raised.
You can do this because the general spread betting public have a tendancy to over-react to high shirt numbers so therefore once the line-ups are published spread bettors will rush to BUY in the hopes that Bendtner scores a hat-trick.
There is also another way to profit in the Shirt Numbers market, however this circumstance comes around far less often. During a match when you see a large numbered (50+) substitution come on the field you will see that the spread for shirt numbers will rise drastically, even if the sub is only a defender.
When this happens you would be wise to SELL the spread as more often than not he will not score.
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If you are considering a teams supremacy in a game you may be better taking their performance or mini-performance. When the spread is only 0.5 – 0.8 you will be making a profit if they win by 1 or more goals. However if you were to take their performance at a spread of 20 – 24 you will make a profit if they just score 2 goals regardless of whether or not they win.
Basically before you place any wagers right down on a piece of paper the exact result you think the match will finish along with other likely outcomes. Then from this determine whether or not the Supremacy, the Team Performance or in fact another market is better for you.
In football, all individual match markets are settled based on the score at the end of 90 minutes, even if the game goes to extra time or penalties, unless otherwise stated by the spread firm in its quote. The nature of sports spread betting allows a higher range of betting opportunities. The more popular markets are supremacy (this is predicting a team's dominance over their opposition) along with the total number of goals. Other popular markets include number of corners and bookings.
Below are illustrations of how the various markets work, using an actual game by way of example.
The volatility figure is a rough guide to how likely major swings in make-ups are.
The telephone minimum bet figure is also shown, though this will vary from firm to firm, and will probably be less for internet and certain other types of account.
Supremacy (winning margin, quoted in tenths of a goal)
Example : Manchester Utd/Liverpool 0.1-0.4
If you think Manchester Utd will win by more than 0.4 of a goal, then you would BUY Manchester Utd supremacy at 0.4.
If you think Liverpool will win or get a draw, then you would SELL Manchester Utd supremacy at 0.1
Assuming your stake is £100 per goal :
Result : Manchester Utd 2 v 1 Liverpool
If you bought superiority you win .6 x £100 = £60
If you sold Superiority you lose .9 x £100 = £90
Example : Manchester Utd - Liverpool 2.4 - 2.7
If you think it will be an open game with lots of goals, then you would BUY Total Goals at 2.7
If you think it will be a dour defensive struggle then you would SELL Total Goals at 2.4.
Assuming you buy and your stake is £100 per goal :
If you bought Total Goals you win 0.3 (3 goals - 2.7) x £100 = £30
If you sold Total Goals you lose 0.9 (3- 2.4 goal) x £100 = -£90
Example : Manchester Utd - Liverpool 28- 31
If you think there will be plenty of goals, probably scored by players wearing high numbers, then you would BUY Shirt Numbers at 31
If you think there will be few goals and they players wearing high numbers are less likely to score, then you would SELL Shirt Numbers at 28.
Assuming you buy and your stake is £10 per point :
Result : there are 3 goals, scored by numbers 9, 15, and 22 = 46
If you Bought, you win 15 x £10 = £150
If you sold, you lose 18 x £10 = £180
Quote Example Manchester Utd v Liverpool 42 - 46
10 points are awarded for each Yellow Card and 25 Points for each Red card.
If you think it will be a rough match with lots of bookings and possibly sendings off, then you would BUY Bookings at 46.
If you think it will be a clean well-behaved game then you would SELL Bookings at 42.
Assuming you sell and your stake is £10 per point :
4 Yellow Cards and 1 Red Card = 65 You lose 23 (65 - 42) = -£230
2 Yellow Cards and no Red Cards = 20 You win 22 (42 - 20) = £220
If you think there will be more than 12 corners in the match, then you would BUY Total Corners at 12.
If you think there will be less than 11 corners in the match then you would SELL Total Corners at 11.
Assuming you buy and your stake is £100 per corner :
14 corners you win 2 (14 corners - 12) x £100 = £200
9 corners you lose 3 (12 - 9 corners ) x £100 = -£300
Example : Manchester Utd - Liverpool 36 - 39
If you think it will be an open game and there is every likelihood of an early goal, then you would SELL Time of First Goal at 36.
If you think there is little likelihood of an early goal then you would BUY Time Of First Goal at 39.
Assuming you sell and your stake is £10 per minute :
First goal 66th minute you lose 30 (36- 66) x £10 = -£300
First goal 18th minute you win 18 (36- 18) x £10 = £180
This is calculated by adding up the minutes in which all the goals were scored. For settlement purposes, goals scored in injury time count as 45 in the first half and 90 in the second half.
Example : Manchester Utd - Liverpool 125 - 135
If you think there will be plenty of goals, and that it is likely they may be scored late in the game, then you would BUY Total Goal Minutes 135
If you think there will be few goals and it is less likely they will be scored late in the game, then you would SELL Total Goal Minutes at 125.
Assuming you stake is £5 per minute :
Result : there are 3 goals, scored in the 20th, 54th, and 66th minutes = make-up of 140
If you Bought, you win 5 x £10 = £50
If you sold, you lose 15 x £10 = £150
Quote example : Manchester Utd v Liverpool 30 - 33
Multi-corners is a highly volatile market, where the make-up is calculated by multiplying the corners the home team is awarded by those awarded to the away team. Thus, if one team doesn't win any corners, the make-up will be 0, no matter how many the other team win, whereas if both win plenty, it can be a very high figure indeed.
If you think there will be plenty of corners awarded to both sides, then you would BUY Multi-Corners at 33.
If you think there will be few corners for both teams or very few for one team, then you would SELL Multi- Corners at 30.
Result : There were 9 corners in total in the game. Of these, Manchester Utd were awarded 7 corners and Liverpool 2, so the make-up was 7 x 2 = 14
If you bought Multi-corners you lose 19 x £10 = -£190
If you sold Multi-corners you win 16 x £10 = £160
If you think Manchester Utd will win or at the very worst draw, then you would BUY Manchester Utd supremacy at 0.4 (or alternatively SELL Liverpool at 8.5).
If you think Liverpool have a good chance of getting a result, then you would BUY Liverpool on the Performance Index at 10 (or alternatively SELL Manchester Utd at 13.5).
Assuming your stake is £20 per pointl :
Result : Manchester Utd 2 v 1 Liverpool
If you bought Manchester Utd you win 10 x £20 = £200
If you sold Manchester Utd you lose 11.5 x £50 = £230
If you bought Liverpool you lose 10 x £20 = £200
If you sold Liverpool you win 8.5 x £20 = £170
Example : Manchester Utd performance 52 - 56
Care must be taken when it comes to team performance markets because each spread firm calculates the make-up in slightly different ways, so they are not identical.
In this case Cantor Index's scoring system is : 25pts win, 15per goal, 10 draw, 3 per corner, 10 clean sheet, 10 leading at half-time, -5 per yellow card, -15 per red card.
Thus if you think Manchester Utd will generally be on top in the game - winning, maybe keeping a clean sheet, or scoring plenty of goals, not conceding too many cards, then you would BUY Manchester Utd Team Performance at 56.
If you think the opposite you could SELL Manchester Utd Team Performance at 52.
They were also quoting Liverpool Performance at 31 - 35.
Assuming your stake is £10 per point :
Result : 25 (win) + 30 (2 goals) + 21 (7 corners) 0 (no clean sheet) + 10 (leading at half time) - 5 (1 yellow card) = 81
If you bought superiority you win 25 x £10 = £250
If you sold Superiority you lose 29 x £100 = -£290
Example : Manchester Utd v Liverpool 32 - 36
This is another market where each firm calculates its make-up differently, so prices are not directly comparable between the firms, although they can be similar. Usually two players from each team are chosen.
In this case Sporting Index scoring system is : 25pts per goal and 8 pts if the player does not come onto the field at any time. The four players were Scholes, Van Nistelroy, Cisse, and Gerrard.
Thus if you think these players were likely to be amongst the goals, you could BUY Hotshots at 36.
Alternatively, if you thought it unlikely they would muster more than goal between them, you could SELL Hotshots at 32.
Assuming your stake is £10 per point :
Result : none of the players score but all appear at some time, therefore the make-up is 0.
If you bought Hotshots you lose 36 x £10 = -£360
If you sold Hotshots you win 32 x £10 = £320
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how does the spread work in football betting
The point spread is made by lines makers in a sportsbook/bookmaker to even out the teams; hence, giving each team in the matchup a positive or negative handicap.
The whole point of a point spread in football betting is to make punters/bettors bet on in a different way so that not everyone will be on the favorite. Kind of like why bookmakers create a moneyline.
Here is how you would read the point spread.
the -110 is there to show you how much it will cost the bettor to place a bet. So if you bet $110 you will win $100.
the +13 and the -13 are the football point spread.
+13 means that you are betting that the Oakland Raiders will not lose the match by more than 13 points. If they do, you lose the bet, if they lose by less then 13 points, you win your bet.
-13 means that you are betting that Tampa Bay will win the game by more than 13 points. If they do, you win the bet. If they don´t you lose the bet.
The two most common ways to bet are either straight up betting or betting against the spread.
Straight up is easy. This is just who you think will win. If you pick the winning team you win the bet. You will have to pay double whatever they gave you. So $5 would be $10.
You can also bet against the spread. This is the prediciton on who vegas is choosing to win and by how many points. This makes it so every game is bettable. Like we know an NFL team would crush a college team and the spread was created so even if though a team is a major favorite you can still bet on the game. How this works is a team will be favored by a certain amount of point. I think the patriots are favored by 3 points. So a Giants win or if they lose by only 2 it makes the person who picked the Giants win. If the patriots win by more than 3 then whoever picks the patriots win. If they win by exactly 3 points then it is a push. Normally you would just give them back whatever they put in and nothing more. To avoid this make the tiebreaker either whoever gets closest to picking the finals score, or the total amount of points scored.
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This really is in which a bit of information can and more often than not can derail you and where a large amount of in-depth, as much as the moment knowledge can cause you to a winner. Time and time again.
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Sports Betting Picks - Winning Picks
If a team you bet on is favored by 7 then there are three things that can happen; 1- They don't cover (lose or win by less then 7), 2- You tie (they win by exactly 7), or 3- They cover (win by more than 7)
Sometimes you will see a team favored by x and a half, this means that there can be no tie.
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