How Does Point Spread Betting Work

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How Does Point Spread Betting Work
Ray Belkora June 1, 2022 at 05:01 PM
A point spread is a type of bet ultimately based on the margin of victory of a game or match. It is a function of sports betting used to make every matchup one of nearly (or exactly) equal probability by setting the margin of victory by the favored team.
Very rarely do sportsbooks see games as 50-50 coin flips, or as commonly referred to in bettors’ language: pick em’s . When the matchup is not one of equal probability, it would not be profitable for sportsbooks to take bets on the predicted winner (favorite) and the predicted loser (underdog) at the same price.
For example, during Week 14 of the 2021 NFL season, the 8-4 Tennessee Titans played the 2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars. If the sportsbooks had been taking bets on each side to win the game at the same exact odds, it would be a no-brainer for the bettor to place a wager on the vastly superior Titans. Common sense and analytics alike say the Titans will win that game well over half of the time, so it would be an extremely profitable bet if the teams were priced equally.
To even out the wagers the sportsbooks receive on the game, oddsmakers set a point spread favoring Tennessee to win by 8.5 points. The spread can and will vary slightly across different sportsbooks, but 8.5 was the general consensus. That means when a point spread wager on the Titans is placed, Tennessee would have to win the game by 9 points or more, i.e. to cover the 8.5 point spread. 
On the other hand, if a bet is placed on Jacksonville, the wager wins if the Jaguars were to win the game or lose by less than 8.5 points.
Tennessee ended up winning the game by 20 points (20-0), so point spread wagers on the Titans cashed, while bettors who took the Jaguars point spread lost.
When a point spread is listed on a sportsbook, it is accompanied by a “+” or a “-” sign. The “-” sign means that the team is the favorite , so Tennessee was listed as “-8.5.” Jacksonville, as the underdog , was listed at “+8.5.” 
The logical way to think about this format is to imagine that Tennessee is beginning the game with -8.5 points. If that were the case, according to the oddsmakers, the Titans and Jaguars would have a near-equal win probability.
While the chances of the bet hitting may be about equal in the eyes of the sportsbook, the general odds for a point spread are still -110 on both sides of the bet, meaning a bettor must risk $110 to win $100. That extra risk is called the vig , and is how sportsbooks ensure they make money.
However, sometimes the book doesn’t view the spread as exactly equal so will have the prices at something like -115/-105. Generally speaking, the two numbers add up to -220. If not, that probably means the book is taking more or less vig than is standard. As always, please use the OddsJam’s Odds pages to easily find which sportsbook has the best line and price for your bet.
Sportsbooks calculate point spreads using a combination of data-driven computer formulas and human input. Statistical power ratings (such as KenPom for college basketball) are taken into account, as are injuries, travel, matchup history, and of course home field advantage. For example, the home team generally sees a two to three point edge in the NFL . So if the Titans and Jaguars had been playing on a neutral field, the spread would have been about six. If it was at Jacksonville, it would have been about three points instead of the 8.5 at Tennessee. This can vary depending on the home team and circumstances. When the Seahawks were at their peak playing in front of the 12th man, bookmakers would give more of an advantage than in the past few years when the Chargers would play games in front of largely visiting fans in a soccer stadium.
Like all betting odds, point spreads can and will move based upon a number of different factors. For example, the Titans/Jaguars spread opened at Tennessee -9 but by kickoff on December 12th it was 8.5 at most books. This was a small line movement , but sometimes lines can move several points in one direction or the other due to action the books take in from bettors. If a substantial amount of money comes in on one side of the line (called a steam move), the sportsbooks will have to adjust the line to entice bettors to take the other side. Sportsbooks always want to have as close to equal amounts of money being bet on each side as possible so they are not at risk of taking a huge loss. Another factor that can change the line is sharp bettors . If one sharp is well known for winning consistently and bets a large sum on one side, that alone could compel the sportsbook to move the line. 
Since point spreads are volatile, the timing of a bet can be crucial. If a bettor sees an opening line that they predict will move significantly, they want to get in early before it shifts. Once it changes in the predicted direction, not only does that bettor have a positive EV bet, but it also opens up opportunities to middle the bet or place an arbitrage bet. 
A bettor should bet the point spread when they think that the team will cover the spread. If someone was thinking about betting on Tennessee but thought it would be a close one possession game, it would not be advisable to place a bet on the point spread. However, if the person thought the Titans would really dominate Jacksonville, betting the -8.5 point spread would make a lot more sense than taking a risk-heavy moneyline at a much steeper price.
When betting a point spread, it’s always a good idea to look around at various books to try and get the highest value bet possible. For example, DraftKings may have had the line at -8, while FanDuel was at -8.5 and Caesars at -9. A person interested in betting on the Titans would have DraftKings as their best option, since eight points is less for a favorite to cover than nine. 
Meanwhile, someone betting on Jacksonville should go to Caesars and take advantage of the nine point cushion on the underdog.
As always, be aware of the price of the wager as well. 
Baseball and hockey are a little bit different because of how few runs and goals are scored in each game, as opposed to football and basketball. Many games in these two sports end up being decided by just one run, or one goal. 
In baseball, the point spread becomes the “run line.” In the vast majority of Major League Baseball games, the run line is set at -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog. On a very rare occasion, perhaps where an ace like Jacob deGrom is starting against a struggling pitcher on a bad team, the run line can creep up to -2.5 but for the most part, MLB teams are evenly matched enough (and playing a fairly unpredictable sport like baseball) where the line will always be -1.5.
In the final game of the 2021 MLB season, Game 6 of the World Series, the Astros were -125 to win the game (moneyline) while the Braves were +115. The run line was Astros -1.5 at a +150 price, and Atlanta was +1.5 at -175.
Likewise in hockey, the “puck line” is set at -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog. Whenever betting the puck line, always remember the strong possibility of an empty net goal in the final couple minutes that could flip the outcome of the bet.
Since these two sports have far less scoring, it is uncommon for the run or puck lines to be of equal probability and have an equal price. Here is an example of a puck line:
When Anaheim visited St. Louis on December 12th, St. Louis was a slight favorite on the moneyline (just to win the game) at -130, while the Ducks were +110. Since St. Louis was the favorite, their puck line was -1.5, and Anaheims’ was +1.5. However, the oddsmakers saw this as a tight game, so a bettor on the St Louis puck line at -1.5 got a price of +170, while a bettor who thought Anaheim would win the game or just lose by a single goal took the Ducks +1.5 at a price of -200. 
While MLB doesn’t have goaltenders being pulled to increase the probability of an outcome decided by over one goal/run, it does have extra innings where any number of runs can be scored. In hockey, overtime is sudden death so a -1.5 puck line bet is never going to win in NHL overtime. 
Learn also, how does line shopping works!

Home / Betting Guides / What Is Point Spread Betting?
American Odds and the Concept of -110
Point spread betting is a way for casinos to handicap the favored team and it’s a really exciting way to bet on all kinds of sports from football to baseball to basketball.
On this page we’ll explain step by step what point spread bets are and how to place them at online sportsbooks and casinos. We’ll go into detail about how they work in all the major sports and, most importantly, how to find teams that are the most likely to cover the spread.
When two teams face off, one side typically has better odds of winning than the other. That’s the favorite, and it’s the team that most people want to bet on. However, if everyone bet on the same team to win, sportsbooks risk massive losses.
That’s why bookmakers try to get an equal amount of action on both sides of every bet. That way they’re guaranteed to make a profit from the vig they charge regardless of which team wins. One way sportsbooks make both teams equally appealing to bettors is by offering what’s called point spread betting .
Point spreads require the dominant team to win by a certain number of points or goals, while also allowing the underdogs to lose by that same number of points or goals and still pay out if you bet on them. That way, choosing between both teams is more like a 50/50 coin toss. This popular form of betting has been used with sports since the 1940s and is common with all sorts of leagues, including NHL, NFL, NBA, MLB and soccer.
The goal of the point spread is to even the playing field between two teams in a game. When both teams attract an equal amount of betting action, sportsbooks are able to offer higher payouts, especially with games that feature lopsided opponents.
In order to do that, handicappers establish a margin of victory (and loss) that both teams must cover in order to win the bet. Represented as a number, the point spread wager acts in three ways:
If the team you picked still wins after the point modification, your spread bet wins.
For example, with a 4-point spread, the favorite team must win by more than 4 points for bettors to get paid. Conversely, the underdogs can lose by 1, 2, or 3 points (or win the game outright) and still win the bet. However, if the underdogs lose by more than 4 points, the bet is a loss.
Let’s look at a specific example to see how sportsbooks advertise point spreads and how they work:
In this example the Rams must win by more than seven points to cover the spread while the Vikings can lose by six or less points or win the game outright for them to cover the spread.
How much you get paid on your point spread bet depends on the odds listed at the time of the bet. Beside every point spread in parentheses are the odds that determine the payout. They’re expressed as American odds and they look just like the odds you’d find on a moneyline bet such as +125 or -120. In order to figure out your payout, first look at whether the odds are negative or positive.
Using multiples of 100 makes it quick and easy to see the value and cost of a bet; it doesn’t mean your bets need to be $100. You can bet however much you want within the maximum and minimum betting parameters outlined in a sportsbook, and the payout will be scaled up or down based on how much money you stake.
Rules for point spread betting include locking in odds, scenarios that result in a push and the inclusion or exclusion of overtime. We’ll cover all of these rules, so you know exactly what to expect from your spread bet.
Up to this point we’ve discussed how point spreads work, but we haven’t talked about the difference in spread betting between sports with lots of scoring and sports with very little scoring. This distinction can be seen with two different kinds of point spreads:
Flexible point spreads can be any number the oddsmaker thinks is appropriate for the game. These types of spreads are used for sports with lots of scoring like football and basketball.
Systematic point spreads, on the other hand, are used with sports that have lower point or goal totals-like baseball and hockey. In these scenarios, the spread is the same for every game. We’ll go through an example of these two types of point spreads, starting with a flexible NFL spread.
Let’s say the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs are facing off, and both teams are enjoying solid seasons. The Patriots have the stronger record, so they’re the favorite. You can tell this game is taking place at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City because the home team is always listed on the bottom of the two lines:
We’re looking at a 3-point spread here. The spread is always negative for the favorite and positive for the underdogs. With the 3-point spread restraining New England, the Patriots must beat Kansas City by more than 3 points for their bets to pay. On the other hand, the Chiefs can either win straight up or lose by 1 or 2 points and still cover the spread. Overtime is included in the outcome.
A third outcome is possible. If the Patriots beat the Chiefs by exactly 3 points, say the final score is 10-7, the result is a push, and the money staked is returned to bettors. Often, oddsmakers will use spreads that incorporate a half-point in order to avoid pushes because there are no half-points awarded in hockey, baseball, basketball or football.
To illustrate MLB’s spread betting, known as the runline, we’ll use a game between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. With baseball, the presence of a certain pitcher is such a big part of the team’s success that they’re included as part of the bet. In this scenario, if a different pitcher plays, the bet is marked No Action, and the money staked is returned to bettors. Some sportsbooks offer MLB runline bets where no pitcher is included, and the odds will reflect the uncertainty through lower payouts.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Unless you’re looking at Live Betting, the runline always uses a 1.5-point spread, with the favorite getting -1.5 and the underdogs getting +1.5. In our example, the Yankees are 1.5-point home favorites, which can be deduced from their negative spread and placement underneath the Away team. In order for a runline bet on the Yankees to win, they must win by at least 2 runs and Tanaka must be the starting pitcher. If it all pans out, a $100 bet would pay $125.
For a bet on Boston to be successful, Rodriguez would have to start and Boston would have to win, or lose by a single run. A $145 bet would pay $100.
Betting point spreads offers all kinds of opportunities to use betting strategies to increase the value you’re getting on your bets. Let’s take a closer look at some of the edges you can find.
Tracking a point spread for a game of interest will tell you how the public as a whole is betting. In order to reduce the risk of exposure, sportsbooks are always trying to balance the action between both sides of a bet.
So if the public predominately bets on one team, the spread will shift to encourage more action on the other team. Here’s an example of how a 4-point spread can move:
Teams with big fan-bases typically see a shift in their spread before the start of a game, so if you want to bet on one of these big franchises, it’s best to do it in advance. Meanwhile, it’s usually best to bet against them closer to game day when there’s more value on the underdog.
Any sport with a structured spread, like baseball and hockey, won’t see shifts in their spread. Instead, changes are made to the odds associated with the spread. To encourage betting on one team, odds will lengthen, such as +150 becoming +165. To discourage betting on a team that has already received a lot of action, odds will shorten, such as -125 becoming -140. Keep an eye on these changes to get the best value for your spread bet.
As bets roll in on one team in a game, the spread shifts to encourage action on the other side. This can create a unique opportunity to bet the middle, which involves betting on both sides, with each side having its own spread. If the end result is in the middle of both bets, you win twice.
Betting the middle is most common with NFL because NFL odds are typically released a week before game day, providing ample opportunity for the spreads to shift. We’ll use an example to explain how to bet the middle.
Let’s say the Philadelphia Eagles are -14.5 favorites against the Los Angeles Rams. You pick them up, and as game day approaches, the spread shifts, making the Eagles -17.5 favorites instead of -14.5. At this point, you pick up the Rams as +17.5 underdogs. Now, if the Eagles win by 15 to 17 points, you win both your Philadelphia bet and your Los Angeles bet.
With football and basketball, you can increase your odds of winning a spread bet by buying points to alter the line in your favor. Sportsbooks offer one, two or all three of the following options when it comes to buying points:
Upon buying points, the spread will move in the direction that benefits you. If you’re betting the underdog, points will be added to the spread, whereas if you’re betting the favorite, points will be subtracted from the spread.
For example, if a point spread is 6.5, buying a half-point for the favorite decreases the spread to -6. Meanwhile, buying a half-point for the underdogs increases it to +7. Now, if the favorite beats the underdogs by 6 points, the result is a push instead of a loss. As for the underdogs, if they lose by exactly 7 points, the result is a push where it would have been a loss with the original +6.5 spread.
For the most part, the cost of each half-point is 10 cents (10%) in vigorish, which is the money the sportsbook charges as commission; that cost would change a standard -110 line to -120. However, with football betting, there are certain premiums for spreads that land on or off numbers that are statistically more prevalent outcomes for win margins. For example, the two most common margins of victory in NFL are:
When buying points, if the spread happens to fall on or off the magic number 3, you’re charged 25 cents in vigorish, changing the line from -110 to -135. Now you’ve got to spend $135 instead of $110 to win $100. Spreads that fall on or off 7 incur a cost of 15 cents, changing the line from -110 to -125.
Of course, not all lines are -110. When you get into lines below the -110 standard, there is an additional step (and cost) because you have to get the line up to -110 before buying points. For example, a line of -100 would need to be boosted up to -110 before adding the point, and the 10-cent cost to do that is added to your point purchase. Lines that are above -110 don’t require any extra steps to bring them down to -110.
Be sure to familiarize yourself with the rules to point spread betting that are specific to the sportsbook you’re using, as some books have restrictions on what type of numbers can be modified by a spread. For instance, with some books, you may only be able to add a half-point onto a spread with a half-number, which would turn some of your losses into pushes.
Line shading is when sportsbooks make the most popular bets more expensive than what the true odds would suggest. It’s no secret that people bet on what they want to see in a game, and in general, people want lots of offense and big-franchise victories. If a sportsbook is shading lines, these two picks cost more than normal. A common strategy to avoid falling prey to shaded lines is to bet against the public and to always shop around.
Points spreads and moneylines offer two unique approaches to betting on a game. Do you want to pick the winner of a game straight-up? Alternatively, you can bet on how many points the favorite will win
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