Red Sea risk not materially changed amid Houthi threat to Haifa-trading shipowners

THE threat to commercial shipping in the Red Sea remains unchanged despite the Houthis stating that they are expanding their targeting profile, security experts say.

The Yemeni faction announced a “prohibition on maritime navigation to and from the Port of Haifa” on Monday, stating that violators of the ban will be classified as supporters of Israel and subject to “sanctions”.

“The fleets of these companies will be prohibited from transiting the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean,” said the Houthis’ Humanitarian Operations Co-ordination Center — through which the militants communicate with the shipping industry — in an email.

“Moreover, they will be subject to targeting wherever they may be reached by the Yemeni Armed Forces.”

Security experts noted that ships trading with Israel have been targeted since the early days of the Red Sea crisis and downplayed the significance of the announcement.

“This doesn’t change anything,” said Arran Kennedy, associate analyst at Control Risks.

“Ships servicing trade with Israel and linked to those that do have pretty much always been a Houthi target since November 2023 — and even the Houthis’ more narrow definition of an ‘Israeli ship’ during the January-March Gaza ceasefire was taken with a pinch of salt at the time.

“I don’t think there’ll be any shipowners or operators changing their routing decisions in light of this latest Houthi chest-beating.”

Dirk Sibels, senior analyst at Risk Intelligence, agreed that “the Haifa announcement doesn’t really change anything”.

“It’s kind of back to square one,” he said, referring to the earlier days of the Red Sea crisis, when the Houthis were targeting ships if any vessel in that fleet called at Israeli ports.

An analysis of Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel- tracking data revealed that of the 164 different beneficial owners that sent ships to Haifa from January to May, only 15 also had vessels within their fleet that sailed through the Bab el-Mandeb over the past several months.

In terms of the number of transits through the beleaguered shipping lane, the volume is negligible.

The Houthis have yet to add any new companies to their so-called “sanctions list”, with the last updates being made on April 20, 2025, when 15 American defence companies were designated for supplying Israel with weapons and other military equipment.

The Yemeni faction says its announcement is in response to the “expansion of aggressive military operations by the usurping Israeli entity in the Gaza Strip”. The move comes amid the US-Houthi ceasefire announced on May 6 that was meant to ensure “freedom of navigation”, according to a statement from Omani mediators who brokered the talks.

However, it appears that despite the truce, many ships still cannot navigate freely. The Houthis clarified immediately following the announcement that Israel-owned ships were still “banned” from the Red Sea, and experts have observed that the truce is not expected to usher in an imminent return to the key waterway.

EOS Risk Group head of advisory Martin Kelly told Lloyd’s List following the US-Houthi truce announcement that it would take “a while” before the Red Sea situation normalised, pointing to the recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

“The Houthis announced a ceasefire earlier this year and reverted pretty quick,” Kelly told Lloyd’s List. “During that time, trade wasn’t quick to return to the Red Sea.”

Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc said during an earnings call on May 8 that the Danish liner does not believe the Red Sea would reopen to container traffic in 2025. Clerc stressed the connection between the war in Gaza and a return to the Red Sea, dismissing the significance of the US-Houthi truce.

During a conference call last week, Hapag- Lloyd chief executive Rolf Habben said boxships will continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope until the end of the year, and that a future return to the Red Sea would be gradual, timed over a three- to six-month period.

Lloyd's List Daily Briefing 23 May 2025

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