Caution, U-turns and rising rates, but tanker traffic continues largely unscathed for now

TANKER traffic through the Strait of Hormuz paused in the wake of US military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but only briefly and volumes remained largely unaffected on Monday in response.

While at least five tankers performed swift U-turns following the US strikes in the early hours of June 22, traffic has remained within normal ranges after an immediate Iranian response to US strikes on its nuclear facilities failed to materialise, leaving crude supply from the Middle East still largely unaffected by the escalating conflict.

A total of 15 tanker transits through the strait were recorded on Sunday by Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data, down from the 21 transits recorded on June 21, but well within the normal range.

After a brief spike to a five-month high above $80 per barrel on Monday, the rally in Brent crude futures quickly dissipated as it became clear that, for now, tankers were continuing to trade, albeit with added rates, pauses and the expectation of disruption to come.

Shipowners are trying to minimise time that vessels spend inside the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict, but most are still moving.

Lloyd’s List understands that several owners and loading ports inside the Middle East Gulf are now instructing vessels to delay crossing the strait until shortly before the scheduled loading time.

In the wake of the US strikes which hit three Iranian nuclear facilities — Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan — and a subsequent vote in Iran’s parliament on Sunday to close the strait, several ships abruptly changed course, only to then turn back again several hours later.

Coswisdom Lake (IMO: 9727194), a Cosco- controlled VLCC chartered by Unipec, and South Loyalty (IMO: 9537769), a Sinokor- owned VLCC chartered by Trafigura, both performed U-turns on Sunday in the wake of the strikes, only to turn around again on

Monday to continue into the Middle East Gulf.

Other ships, however, appear to have either rerouted or are now anchored, awaiting instructions.

Hafnia MR1 tanker Hafnia Aragonite (IMO: 9727558) was tracked reversing course on Sunday heading back towards India, having only departed the port of Kandla on June 19.

MOL-owned chemical tanker Kohzan Maru (IMO: 9209283) was sailing towards the strait before changing course and then anchoring in the Gulf of Oman. Nova Group-controlled MR2 tanker Red Ruby (IMO: 9284790) and Sokana-contolled chemical carrier Marie C (IMO: 9749348) were also sailing towards the strait before opting to drop anchor off the UAE port of Fujairah.

A combination of load port scheduling and entry instructions, insurance negotiations and internal company-level security reviews are

understood to be behind several changes to vessel movements in the wake of the US strikes.

Several technical managers have reportedly advised crews to maintain heightened vigilance, avoid

over-reliance on electronic navigation systems and conduct extra emergency preparedness drills.

Persistently high levels of electronic interference, particularly affecting GNSS systems, continue to be experienced throughout the region.

According to the latest Joint Maritime Information Centre advisory note to vessels transiting the region, electronic interference in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be an issue, originating from the port of Bandar.

Some vessels have chosen to sail through the strait during daylight hours as a result of the threats, but the combination of those changes in transit patterns and ships waiting to transit, is already resulting in increasing ship congestion near Dubai and in the southern Gulf of Oman.

Despite the relative calm in the market and minimal disruption so far, the anticipated military response from Iran “is likely to include attacks or seizures of US-affiliated shipping”, according to security firm Ambrey.

While Iran’s parliament voted to close the Strait Of Hormuz on Sunday, only an appointee of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei can issue such an order.

A prolonged closure of Hormuz is still widely considered by naval and security analysts as unrealistic, given the strait’s status as an economic lifeline for Iran and its importance internationally as the conduit for 25% of all crude and product flows.

Should the strait be closed, it likely won’t be closed for long as it would prompt world powers to act swiftly because of the large effect it would have on the global economy.

China relies on 47% of its seaborne crude from the Middle East Gulf and around 40% of all LPG exports and 20.5% of global LNG trades are reliant on the narrow waterway remaining open.

Security analysts have repeatedly warned that an alternative for Iran could be random targeting of vessels, as it would increase uncertainty and risk for owners.

“If there is a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this is more likely to be targeted, focused on US and Israeli shipping,” noted Ambrey in its latest security circular.

Several US-flagged merchant ships have gathered in UAE territorial seas, however not all of the ships currently anchored waiting to transit bear a public US-affiliation, either through ownership, trading history or charter.

“Some vessel owners or operators may decide to avoid the Strait of Hormuz for some time, creating a type of two-tier market, but this will not limit the ability to bring the oil out, and to a minor extent in,” noted Vortexa chief economist David Wech.

“I would argue that the price reaction suggests that the wider market thinks that there are limited risks of actual transit issues, or at least that they want to see them first before taking stronger positions.”

Lloyd's List Daily Briefing 24 June 2025

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