Hormuz disruption could unplug Gulf ports from global trade

THE Strait of Hormuz is often framed as an energy chokepoint, handling about 20% of the world’s oil and a significant share of LNG trade, but its closure would also severely disrupt global container shipping routes, according to analysts.

As it stands, a blockade of the strait is unlikely but it cannot be ruled out, particularly if

Iran considers further response to the US’s military action at its nuclear sites during the weekend. Disrupting the region’s vast oil f lows is one option on the table, even if the economic damage could bring equal harm to Iran. Over the weekend, the Iranian parliament reportedly approved such action.

For container shipping, a blockade or restricted access through the strait would deliver a “double blow” to regional and global networks, according to MDS Transmodal senior analyst Antonella Teodoro, who told Lloyd’s List that it would force carriers into a complicated reconfiguration of Middle East Gulf services as the industry still grapples an already disrupted Red Sea corridor.

Faced with the scenario of simultaneous disruption this would effectively isolate the gulf from global container trade, halting the movement of everything from consumer goods and machinery to industrial components and humanitarian supplies, she said.

“This scenario would expose the fragility of gulf port-centric supply chains and may prompt a fundamental reassessment of logistics strategies, diversification of routes and the geopolitical risks embedded in maritime trade.”

As a consequence of the “closure”, mainline container services to the gulf would likely be suspended or rerouted, with a possible pivot to feeder-based strategies via alternative hubs outside of the strait, added Teodoro. Although even these hubs would be constrained by the elevated security risks across both chokepoints.

Vespucci Maritime chief executive Lars Jensen agreed a similar scenario would play out to that of the Red Sea; if the major carriers deemed the risk level too high to transit the Strait of Hormuz then regional players would likely pick up the slack to ensure regional coverage.

“The pure import/export cargo from the region eventually would find its way in there. But that might be quite a transition period.

“But if you’re not sending the big vessels in there, the ramification would also be an increase in transhipment cargo outside of the gulf similar to what you saw a bit over a year ago, when you had suddenly had congestion in some of the Asian hubs, as a result of the Red Sea crisis, for exactly the same reason,” he said.

A halt to mainline trade into the gulf would also have significant implications for the major hubs west of the strait, such as Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi that are heavily reliant on continental cargoes traversing the trade artery.

“The position of Jebel Ali as the region’s primary transhipment and logistics hub would come under significant pressure,” said Teodoro.

“With both Hormuz and the Red Sea compromised, its connectivity to Asia, Africa, and Europe would deteriorate — raising questions about the port’s resilience and long-term role.”

She also noted that the reorientation of regional trade flows toward the Red Sea and East Mediterranean would no longer be a viable contingency.

“Ports like Jeddah, Aqaba or Damietta, which previously offered alternatives to gulf gateways, are themselves facing reduced reliability and heightened risk due to attacks and delays on the Red Sea route.”

This overlapping chokepoint crisis, she said, would likely accelerate investment in overland connectivity, such as the Gulf Railway, inland distribution networks, and multimodal corridors linking gulf states to the Levant, Türkiye and even Central Asia.

“However, these long-term solutions will not resolve the acute short-term supply chain disruptions,” said Teodoro.

Domestic ramifications

If Iran did choose to enforce the closure of the key maritime chokepoint this would, of course, have domestic ramifications as it would effectively cut off cargo supplies to its principal ports in the Middle East Gulf, including its largest Bandar Abbas.

Analyst Linerlytica noted how in addition to the container shipping services operated by IRISL and several smaller Iranian carriers that call directly at Iranian ports, a significant part of Iranian container traffic was also transhipped through other gulf ports. This, it said, accounted for more than 35% of the 2.5m teu handled at Iranian ports in 2024.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s Seasearcher platform shows that container vessels have continued to move as usual through Bandar Abbas over the past week.

Containership passing data through the Strait of Hormuz also shows trading conditions continuing as usual despite the conflict. In the week ending June 22, Lloyd’s List Intelligence tracked 143 box ships (10,000+ dwt) passing east and west through the shipping artery. This compares to 124 ships making the journey in the corresponding week of 2024.

Linerlytica noted that container vessel capacity operated on services that passes the strait stands at 3.2m teu, or equivalent to 8.4% of the total global fleet.

CMA CGM, which operates the largest number of scheduled services passing the strait (15), said earlier this week said that its shipping activities are proceeding as normal in the area, with operations and logistics chains unchanged.

“We continue to ensure full service coverage across all routes and ports of call,” it said.

On Tuesday morning, Hapag-Lloyd also said that while it continues to closely monitor the current developments in the region, the German carrier’s ships “continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz”.

“The safety and well-being of our crews and ships remain our highest priority. We are actively evaluating potential risks and stand ready to adjust our operations should conditions change,” it said.

No Israeli- or American-owned ships are currently deployed on this route, according to Linerlytica.

Although the trading situation through the Strait of Hormuz is relatively unchanged, spot freight rates have jumped slightly since the conflict begun.

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index shows spot rates up 10% over the past two weeks from $1,929 per feu to $2,122 per feu, representing its highest value since August last year. However, on a year-on-year comparison rates are still down nearly 27% on the SCFI, when the industry was at the height of the Red Sea crisis.

If Iran were to enforce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the likelihood is that rates would climb sharply and quickly.

Jensen added that of course this would cause yet more operational challenges for carriers, but if to take a “slightly cynical view” this would not be all bad for the region’s operators.

“As we have seen time and time again over the past five years, these kinds of operational headaches temporarily lead to capacity shortages, which temporarily actually turns out profitable for the carriers.

Lloyd's List Daily Briefing 25 June 2025

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