Heat On A Blackacj 1 Betting Spread
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Heat On A Blackacj 1 Betting Spread
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Hi all,
It would be great to hear what spreads people use comfortably vs what starts to attract heat. I'm currently playing low stakes <$10 min bet and I'm interested to hear what kind of spreads are 'safe' to apply without attracting too much attention and what might be seen as asking for trouble.
It may be that I'm on such low stakes that I needn't worry too much about high spreads for the moment, but I don't have the necessary experience to back that up and I could do with some insight on what a typical low/medium/high spread looks like. Right now, my perception is that a 1-12 spread feels high when I'm sitting at the table, but other people might think it's still very natural looking.
Furthermore, do jumps in spreads (i.e. going from 1 unit at TC 1 to 5 units at TC 2) attract more heat than having more gradual increments and decrements with each TC as they are simulated in CVCX?
Interested in thoughts and experiences.
Kind Regards
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Depends on the location of the games. I played some Double Deck games in the winter in Vegas Spreading (Starting with red chips) 1-8 and 1-12 and I got backed off in 3 different spots. In each case it took about 30 minutes and I was backed off. I played in the summer spreading 1-5 and had no problems. Seems like Vegas in very quick to back people off.
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Depends on the location of the games. I played some Double Deck games in the winter in Vegas Spreading (Starting with red chips) 1-8 and 1-12 and I got backed off in 3 different spots. In each case it took about 30 minutes and I was backed off. I played in the summer spreading 1-5 and had no problems. Seems like Vegas in very quick to back people off.
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One idea for you that will help to get a general idea of the bet spreads you want to use is to use CVCX and work backwards by adjusting your bet spreads to get a 1% overall advantage for your specified game. Advantages greater than 1.5% might be perceived by a casino as being too greedy and could get you heated up. Advantages less than 0.5% usually aren't worth playing for most players.
If you're a red chip player jumping your bets should be OK. After you've lost a hand, you can jump your bet by acting like you're trying to get your money back. After you've won a hand, you can jump your bet acting like you're trying to let the winnings ride. Jumping your bet after a push sometimes looks weird.
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"use CVCX and work backwards by adjusting your bet spreads to get a 1% overall advantage"
Can you tell me where it shows overall advantage as a percentage on CVCX, maybe a screenshot example if possible? Thank you.
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roliin, his entire post is a bunch of nonsense I would ignore that. The one thing I agree with is that jumping your bet after a push can definitely look weird
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Jumping a bet after a push does look weird. But, you can get away with it.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
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"use CVCX and work backwards by adjusting your bet spreads to get a 1% overall advantage"
Can you tell me where it shows overall advantage as a percentage on CVCX, maybe a screenshot example if possible? Thank you.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
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I see posts where people discuss this is bad, this is good, 1 to 12, 1 to 8. I understand that bet spreads differ based on rules and how much risk you want to take. I'm a good card counter, I bet more when count is high and less when count is low. But I don't follow any rule on how much i should bet.
So, my casino has 6 deck, min bet there is 10. Can you explain me what exactly 1 to 12 bet spread would mean there in plain English? Any random example would work. Please don't say "it depends", I'm just trying to understand what that means.
Bet spreads are the spread of your betting amounts. So if you’re playing at a $10 minimum table, a “1-12 bet spread” would mean that your minimum bet is $10 and your maximum bet is $120. So when the true count is below a 1, you always bet $10.
The part that actually does “depend” is how much you bet when the true count is at or above a 1. But basically, as the true count gets higher, you bet more, until it is eventually high enough that you’re betting $120/hand.
1-12 is a fairly aggressive bet spread. 1-8 is fairly conservative. That simply refers to the risk you’re taking. The more you vary your bet sizes (aka the more aggressive the bet spread), the more attention you will draw from the floor staff.
So in above example, 1 to 12 bet spread doesn’t really say how much you should bet at , say, tc of 4, right? That’s kinda thing i need to figure out for myself depending on how much risk im willing to take? Is this something legit (regardless of risk taken): at tc 1.5 i do 2xmin bet, at tc 2 - 3xmin bet, at tc 2.5-4xmin bet, and so on until i reach my max bet of 120? Or is there something that bet spread is suggesting to bet on different tc
$10 minimum so $10 is 1 bet. $20 is 2 bets, $50 is 5 bets. $100 is 10 bets. a 1-10 spread means you are betting $10 at the absolute minimum and $100 max. Also if you are a good counter then it is time to get some structure and learn when to bet 2x 5x 10x etc.. don't just do it by gut. BJ and counting is a game of math, emotion has no place.
Also to consider: your EV will go up if you multi hand, and this for different reasons, one being that your chances of getting a natural 21 compared to the dealer getting one are n/(n+1) where n is your number of hands.
Your 21 pays you 3:2 while the dealer's "pays" him 1:1.
Also if you play with another player at the same table, multi hands means you will benefit more from a positive count shoe.
If you cannot multi hand because the table is full, you are not playing in good conditions.
You might want to look into some of the literature or get CVCX to better understand when you want to bet different amounts. You may be good at counting and get the concepts behind counting, but without a good grasp of when to bet certain amounts you're putting yourself at risk of lowering your expected value and raising your risk of ruin.
A 1-12 bet spread in your example using table minimum as your minimum bet:
So, negative counts you’re betting 1 unit, or $10. Your top TC count max bet, if your spread is 1-12, would be $120.
Or just Wong completely out of negative counts and Wong back in at a True +1 or True +2! Cut back on paying that table rent!
What my exact bet spread should be was something I was trying to work out a few years ago too. I can't remember where I read this but someone put it this way:
Putting your bankroll, variance and heat aside, the most profitable bet spread would be to bet nothing when you don't have an edge (below TC of +1 depending on the game) and the table max when you do have the edge.
There are two problems with that: 1. You may not have the bankroll to handle the ups and downs (variance) and 2. They will kick you out.
For variance with respect to your bankroll, that's where Kelly Criterion comes in (google it). That can tell you what you should bet depending on the count and your bankroll so that you don't go bust.
Like someone already mentioned, the CVCX software is a much better way of figuring out your bet spread. You put in what kind of rules you're playing, what you want your spread limits to be (i.e 1-12), your betting unit and your bankroll and it will give you a bet at different counts.
The thing to remember is that your bet at a particular count does not need to be exact. Just don't bet more when you don't have an edge. If your spreads are too conservative, you won't make any money. If they're too aggressive, you might overbet your bankroll or you might get kicked out.
Someone also mentioned spreading to two bets. That's a good idea. Don't quote me on this but it smooths out your variance on those hands by 50% I think.
On a $25 game when I'm not being timid (I have a problem with that) my spread will be something like: $25, $50, 2x$50, 2x$100, 2X$150 and maybe 2x$250 if things are going well and the count is going even higher.
Another thing is that you need a larger spread to beat games with worse rules & penetration. If you find a 2 deck game with a good cut, S17 and surrender (good luck finding that), 1-8 might be enough but you will probably need 1-2 for a 6 deck with 1.75 decks cut off, H17 and no surrender.
The bigger thing here is really that if your bankroll can afford max bets on a TC of +1, you’d have a higher EV playing at higher stakes (and a variable bet spread to compensate).
But I don't follow any rule on how much i should bet.
He means he is good at keeping count I guess but a viable AP needs to do all the below to be successful:
Perfect basic strategy + deviations
Perfect at finding and exploiting good conditions
Otherwise, remain a weekend warrior playing red chips, which is fine, you're still a card counter and you're getting mileage. Play rated, enjoy your comps.
If you really want to dumb it down, then your bet spread is determined from the top down, not the bottom up. So you set your max bet at 1% of your bankroll and work your way down. If you want to get more scientific then you bet somewhere between 30% to 70% of your advantage. You would never bet more than 70%, since this is full kelly any and more is counterproductive for the purposes of bankroll growth. You could bet less than 30%, if you were particularly risk-averse.
Bet spread is kind of sandwich you can find on menu at casino lobby. You can order from the drink server when you are playing blackjack.
Or BET Spread could be a risqué dance move common on the BET channel I guess?
Could someone explain this to me a little more?or maybe recommend a bet spread to me?
The simple idea applies to card-counting. When the house has the edge (there are more small cards than big cards left in the deck) you bet small. When you have the edge (there are more big cards than small cards left in the deck) you bet big. The ratio of your "small" bet to your "large" bet is called your "spread". If you see someone mention a 1-20 spread in a shoe game, they are talking about betting something like $5 on negative/zero counts to $100 when the count is high. How you "ramp" your spread according to the count depends on lots of things, including limiting your risk of ruin, vs maximizing your bankroll growth, and so forth. Most use some form of "kelly" betting, which says to bet a fraction of your bankroll that is proportional to your edge over the house. For example, in a good SD game, a TC of +2 might mean you have a 1% advantage over the house, so you would bet 1% of your bankroll (that is called full-kelly betting). That is a bit "unstable" in terms of variance, so upper-level players bet fractional-kelly. For example, 1/2 kelly says to bet your advantage * your bankroll / 2 to lower your bankroll fluctuation... Hope that helps...
The bet spread depends a bit on the Method used. For example, using hi/lo some people feel comfortable with a 1-8 chip spread. Others more, and yet other folks like less. Best advice is NOT to spread too large... like 1-10 or 1-12 or 1-20. This generally causes attention, especially when one of the larger (and more infrequent) bets catches a winning DD or BJ. Yes you can make a lotta money. But, yes, it can be your last visit to that establishments 21 tables. IMHO a jump from say 1 to 6x (or more) or 2x to 8x is usually noticed. In many places, even going 1x to 4x gets attention. And attention is what one wishes to avoid. Most good methods work well betting just 1 to 4x... its not obtaining the BEST advantage, but varying one's bet successfully, without much notice that counts. For single and double decks, the opportunities for varying the bet are few, as there are fewer rounds dealt before shuffle. Thus the player is usually confined to 1 to 3x or 1 to 4x. Its the shoe that most counters find gets them the large spread. Yet the house advantage isn't too much worse than say a double-deck game with the same rules. Again, a 1 to 4x spread will get one an advantage, and most advantage players I know, use a simple rule for shoe betting.... 1x to # of decks. (ie 1 to 6x or 1 to 8x)
Spreading is not something one wants to do, it is something one _has_ to do to beat a particular game. Here is some sample data. Game: S17 DA2 DAS, 83% penetration, hi-lo with I-18 and fab4 indices only. Assuming one unit = $5 for simplicity. spread hourly win rate 1-4 $4.66 1-6 $7.98 1-8 $10.90 1-10 $13.82 1-12 $15.50 1-16 $18.66 1-20 $20.23 Personally, anything less than 1-12 in this game doesn't attract my attention. And clearly 1-4 is not going to be a big winner, although there will be significant "variance". My personal targets are 1-4 for SD, sometimes more if I can get away with it, 1-8 for DD, more if possible, 1-20 for shoes that I try to avoid for the most part...
I note the $5 unit in the example. If it were $25 = 1 unit... a spread of 1 to 4 nets more than a 1-20 spread at $5. ($23+ vs $20+) Yet each has a $100 maximum. This is financial variance at work. Everyone has their own ways.
"Write you own book", but don't publish it...makes a lot of sense.
Nickels: hourly win rate = EV * unit size... So of course, if you bet bigger units, your hourly win rate is higher. However, which would you rather win, betting at $25 per unit, $23 or $100? If I am betting green, I'm looking to win more than a green per hour...
Theory will produce an ideal bet spread for most any game, but in the real world, this may not be something that you can get by with. From what I understand, LV has really clamped down in the last few years. Also, what is ideal for you may not be ideal for others. Too much is about the individual situation and if you are not "Slick Willy" with an act that would win an award, you're at risk. Further: - Some winning strategies don't have a bet spread - Some high variance strategies use a very short bet spread Why do you need a bet spread? There are two reasons: 1) most of the time, if you play all, you're at a disadvantage and you need to make-up for that down time. 2) your advantage tends to increase over time and when the advantage is small your bet is, likewise, small,etc. If you win money at BJ, chances are that you have used proven concepts, but written your own book as to how you approach the game.
Ray/Nickels Good posts about the reality of bet spreads under casino conditions, especially Nickels advice about not trying to spread 1-12, 1-20, etc., and Rays observation about ideal computer generated spreads not being applicable in the real world. Every player I know (a bunch of them) that plays regularly (say on a weekly basis) generally uses about 1-4 for DD and 1-6,8 for 6D
.Anything more and you are just asking for heat. In deference to the poster above, the 1-8 or more for DD and 1-20 for 6D may be o.k. for the recreational counter who only plays in real casinos two/three times a year, but even then I personally wouldnt recommend them
..way, way to much chance of getting caught and 86d. Regards
Grifter
Grifter- As you know, I've started to play DD after a long absence. The 5-6 games we have are 25 or greater and there is close tracking on every table. Even progression players get a close look and that may be because the games are new. I've not had a problem because of the lack of opportunity to push the bet. I think 1-6 is about it or maybe 2-6 if I can weather the variance. Progressions as cover may get a second look, something simple like 123.
It seems to me we are talking a lot about the hypothetical spread that will get you caught without any hard evidence? Anyone actually know a friend who was banned from a casino for too large of a spread? Seems like we need some hard data -- for all I know, rat is right and 1-12 won't get you caught. Also, will you really get caught at minimum tables? If you are betting $5-$60, is even that large a spread really going to bring heat? Maybe if you play there every day for a long period of time, but it doesn't seem like they would care very much -- especially if you are with friends or ocassionally play other games too. Finally, does getting banned from one casino get you banned from a network of casinos?
I posted a few weeks back that I was "restricted" here in Connecticut playing a $15 table with a 1-10 spread. I was playing at this store for about a year about 2-3 times a month. Early on I would play various progressions and eventually started counting and became more and more confident with pushing out the big bets. When they caught me I was actually down for the session by about $60. If they had stopped me 10 minutes sooner I would have been down $1,000. They also yanked $250 in comps. I am a winner for the year only because of the come back right before getting stopped. The point I am trying to make is that once I became a good counter I shot myself in the foot because I was not a good player. I failed to play with any sort of cover and spread to large. In Fred's BJBB II he states that 1-10 is probably safe for the 6 deck games...at the red chip level. As a regular player I guess it turned out to be to large. I still find it hard to believe that they would even care about me. So beware of all this talk of big bet spreads and take the advice of Nickels_n_Bullets and Grifter. Chuckn
The flexibility of shoe games does allow for bigger spreads and there are several approaches that makes this possible. This is especially true for the low limit tables. However, pitch games are a different story b/c it is much easier to spot a counter and the minimum bet is usally
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