Heat On A 1 Betting Spread
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Heat On A 1 Betting Spread
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 odds, picks and prediction
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The 6-seed Miami Heat and 3-seed Milwaukee Bucks play Game 1 of their Eastern Conference first-round series Saturday at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat vs. Bucks odds and lines , with NBA picks and predictions .
The Heat head into the postseason with wins in five of the past six outings, although that lone loss came May 15 in Milwaukee by a 122-108 count.
Despite that loss and non-cover, they’re still 5-1 ATS in the past six, and 10-4-1 ATS across the past 15 games overall.
The Bucks dropped their regular-season finale in Chicago by a 118-112 count, and while they won eight of the final 10 straight up, they’re just 1-6 ATS across the past seven outings.
Odds via BetMGM ; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:55 a.m. ET.
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The HEAT (+165) were able to trip up the Bucks (-200) last season, winning in five games during the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
While Miami has taken a step back this season, especially with its guard play, they still finished up strong and will be a hard out as long as Jimmy Butler is healthy.
They’ll get off on the right foot in Game 1 before the Bucks tighten up and roll the rest of the series.
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The HEAT +5 (-110) are a good play with the points if you’re not feeling them straight up. The Bucks -5 (-110) did go 2-1 SU/ATS in three regular-season meetings with the Heat.
However, Miami has rolled down the stretch and in the past month, it has looked more like the team that made the NBA Finals.
OVER 226.5 (-110) is the way to go. Miami has hit the Over in six of the past seven on the road, and 11 of the previous 13 overall.
The Over hit in five of the final seven for Milwaukee, while cashing in five of the past seven as a favorite, too.
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The betting odds calculator allows you to input your stake & odds in American, Decimal, or Fractional formats to quickly calculate the payout for your bets.
It is very important to know what payout you are getting on a bet. The odds that a sportsbook offers you is directly related to the implied probability of that outcome happening. If you find a bet where the implied probability of an outcome is lower than the true probability, then that is usually considered a good bet to make. With this being said, lets look at an example from an NFL game.
When you decide to bet on sports, it is important to have a grasp on a few things. These are listed below:
Implied odds and true odds are important in determining if you are making a bet that has good value. You can use our odds calculator above to calculate the implied odds of a given bet as long as you know the odds of the bet. Implied odds are the conversion of a sportsbooks offered odds into an implied win probability. A spread bet in football is normally offered at -110 on both sides of the bet. This gives both outcomes a win probability of 52.38%. The implied probability of this spread bet winning would be 52.38%
True odds are the odds that a bettor gives a certain outcome to happen. Let's use the above bet of -110 for both outcomes on a NFL spread bet. We know that both outcomes have an implied probability of 52.38%. If that same outcome has a true probability of 52.38% or higher, then you would want to take that bet. This seems easy, but how do you find true odds? Essentially, true odds are subjective. There is no concrete, “true probability” for an outcome. However, one person can calculate true probability by using predictive models. This is where handicapping comes into play. True probability is what you think a certain bet’s win probability is after you handicap the game/situation. If true probability > implied probability, that is a good bet to take.
Let's say Caesars Sportsbook is offering the Titans v. Bills game at even odds. By using our odds calculator, you can calculate the implied probability of either team winning. In this scenario, the implied probability that the book is giving for the Titans to win is 60%. Since the same odds are offered for the Bills to win, the implied probability for the Bills to win are 43.48%. What can you do with this information?
If you are able to calculate true probability, you can use those odds to make an informed decision on who to bet on. If you have a predictive model and it gives the Titans a win probability of 65%, then betting on the Titans would be a good bet. It is important to note that if your true probability is higher than the implied probability that a sportsbook is giving you, then that is a valuable bet.
Creating an accurate predictive model can take years to perfect. This is not something that everyone can take advantage of, but if you are looking for a place to start you can check out the resources we have on our betting education page. Be sure to shop around at different books and get the best odds possible. The difference of (-115) and (-110) can save you a lot of money over the course of your sports betting career. You can visit our sportsbook review hub and see which books offer the best odds.
It is very important to know what payout you are getting on a bet. The odds that a sportsbook offers you is directly related to the implied probability of that outcome happening. If you find a bet where the implied probability of an outcome is lower than the true probability, then that is usually considered a good bet to make. With this being said, lets look at an example from an NFL game.
When you decide to bet on sports, it is important to have a grasp on a few things. These are listed below:
Implied odds and true odds are important in determining if you are making a bet that has good value. You can use our odds calculator above to calculate the implied odds of a given bet as long as you know the odds of the bet. Implied odds are the conversion of a sportsbooks offered odds into an implied win probability. A spread bet in football is normally offered at -110 on both sides of the bet. This gives both outcomes a win probability of 52.38%. The implied probability of this spread bet winning would be 52.38%
True odds are the odds that a bettor gives a certain outcome to happen. Let's use the above bet of -110 for both outcomes on a NFL spread bet. We know that both outcomes have an implied probability of 52.38%. If that same outcome has a true probability of 52.38% or higher, then you would want to take that bet. This seems easy, but how do you find true odds? Essentially, true odds are subjective. There is no concrete, “true probability” for an outcome. However, one person can calculate true probability by using predictive models. This is where handicapping comes into play. True probability is what you think a certain bet’s win probability is after you handicap the game/situation. If true probability > implied probability, that is a good bet to take.
Let's say Caesars Sportsbook is offering the Titans v. Bills game at even odds. By using our odds calculator, you can calculate the implied probability of either team winning. In this scenario, the implied probability that the book is giving for the Titans to win is 60%. Since the same odds are offered for the Bills to win, the implied probability for the Bills to win are 43.48%. What can you do with this information?
If you are able to calculate true probability, you can use those odds to make an informed decision on who to bet on. If you have a predictive model and it gives the Titans a win probability of 65%, then betting on the Titans would be a good bet. It is important to note that if your true probability is higher than the implied probability that a sportsbook is giving you, then that is a valuable bet.
Creating an accurate predictive model can take years to perfect. This is not something that everyone can take advantage of, but if you are looking for a place to start you can check out the resources we have on our betting education page. Be sure to shop around at different books and get the best odds possible. The difference of (-115) and (-110) can save you a lot of money over the course of your sports betting career. You can visit our sportsbook review hub and see which books offer the best odds.
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DISCLAIMER: This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting.
Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER in the U.S. This service is intended for adult users only. Individuals must be 21+ to participate in sports betting and iGaming in the U.S.
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Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Schauffele
The term dead heat — when two participants finish exactly even — got its name from racing.
But it comes up far more often in golf betting.
A dead heat refers to ties in finishing position bets like Top 5s, Top 10s and Top 20s, or other golf markets like 3-ball matchups and first-round leaders.
When players tie, your bet amount is usually cut by how many players are tied for those spots . So part of your bet is a loser, and the remainder stands at the original odds.
BetMGM is the only U.S. book we can find that pays all ties in full for finishing position bets like full tournament Top 5s or Top 20s. MGM does not pay out in full for first-round leader bets.
So what exactly is a dead heat, and how are the payouts calculated?
Here’s an example from the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, with dead-heat situations on both Top 5 and Top 10 wagers.
This event had four players tied for third. They occupied positions 3-6 on the leaderboard.
Therefore, if you bet any of them to finish Top 5 at a book that applies dead heat rules (which is pretty much all of them in the United States), your stake was cut to 75% of the original bet.
That’s because there were only three spots for four tied players in the Top 5.
A $40 bet on Justin Rose at +900 to finish Top 5 becomes a $30 bet. You lose the other $10.
Here’s what you expected before the tournament had the bet cashed, and your actual result:
Tenth-place at the Charles Schwab also had dead-heat rules apply, but because there was only one spot available for four tied players, your stake would take an even bigger hit.
Justin Thomas to finish Top 10 before the tournament was around +200. Your stake would be cut by to 75%, with only the one spot available for four players.
So a $100 bet on Thomas becomes a $25 bet at +200. That means you profit $50 and you lose the other $75 originally wagered, resulting in a net loss of $25.
Here’s what you expected before the tournament, and your actual result:
As we’ve touched on, most books will take half your bet amount, and then apply the same odds to the remainder of your bet. It works the same for 3-ball matchups . In a matchup with two golfers, a tie will just result in a push and your money back.
Let’s say you bet a 3-ball matchup at the 2022 PLAYERS in Round 1:
Zalatoris and Varner tied. If you bet $20 on Zalatoris, you’d lose $10 of that because of the dead heat.
The remaining $10 is a winner at +110. So that returns $21 total on a $20 bet … good for $1 in profit.
At most sportsbooks, your stake will be cut by the number of tied golfers relative to the spots available. Some others will cut the odds. And there could be a big difference in money depending on the bet.
MGM doesn’t have dead-heat rules at all for bets like Top 20s, and will pay ties in full. PointsBet cuts the odds. Most others cut the stake.
You won’t notice a difference between the stake and odds getting cut when betting $10 on a 100-1 first-round leader longshot, but when betting Top 5’s, 10’s and 20’s at lower odds, you can lose money on a dead-heat result, like the Thomas example above.
But you almost always want the odds cut, not the stake.
Let’s say Rory McIlroy is +200 to finish top 20, and he finishes in a two-way tie for 20th. In this case, it’s clear you’d rather have the odds cut to +100 than the stake cut to $50.
Even if you’re betting longshots, where the stake is small and the payout is large, you’d want to have the odds cut.
Let’s say Jason Kokrak is 24-1 to finish Top 5, and he ties for fifth with two other players.
Of course, you’d rather have no dead-heat applied at all. So bet at MGM if you can.
No dead heat is a tremendous advantage for bettors, assuming the prices are comparable to other books. (It’s really difficult to put exact math on it, but if the prices are far worse at a non-dead heat book, it’s not worth the hopes of getting paid in full).
MGM’s prices are usually pretty comparable to the other books.
Legal U.S. books with no dead heat for finishing position bets:
Some of MGM’s odds for finishing position are worse than the market, but others aren’t.
Typically, dead heat books will offer slightly better odds overall, but that doesn’t mean they’ll have the best odds on every golfer.
Here’s how much each book held from their Top 20 market for the 2020 RBC Heritage .
Bet365 will cut the odds, not the stake, for certain bets like first-round leaders.
FanDuel, on the other hand, will cut the stake for FRL bets and finishing position bets.
Copyright 2022 © Action Network Inc, All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | AdChoices
DISCLAIMER: This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting.
Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER in the U.S. This service is intended for adult users only. Individuals must be 21+ to participate in sports betting and iGaming in the U.S.
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