Golf Betting Get 3 Strokes Per Hole

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Jeff Gross/Getty Images. Pictured: Tony Finau
Round 2 is in the books, and we’re now down three of the tournament’s top-four players after the cut in Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Tommy Fleetwood.
It’s a tie up top with Michael Thompson and Richy Werenski, but lurking right behind them is the fourth big name pre-tournament, Tony Finau, who has played very well despite some mediocre luck on the greens.
What should we expect for the weekend? Let’s break it down, but first a quick dive into Strokes Gained, which we’ll reference a bunch in this piece.
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer is truly playing by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it has, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different — Strokes Gained measures how players handle them relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics…
In general, ball-striking and tee-to-green are more stable long-term, and often you can find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well but just not getting putts to drop, which is more random. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
In last night’s piece I wrote that this is Finau’s tournament, and I still believe that after Round 2. Thee books agree as well: he’s currently the favorite to win at DraftKings at +250 odds.
Perhaps that’s too steep to buy him to win, but it’s hard to ignore his play so far: He leads the entire field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Well, sorry, “lead” is a drastic understatement — he’s dominating the field in that category, which I think is the most important of any metric right now.
He has gained a ridiculous 4.00 strokes with his approach, and we all know what he can do with his driver and distance in general. He’s actually been a negative on and around the greens, and he still sits just one stroke back after a 5-under round on Friday. Uh, yeah, I’ll buy that guy.
And as I wrote about yesterday, I’m not worried about the narrative with Finau. Sure, it’s close to a major, but Finau also doesn’t have the high-end success like Brooks or DJ; I wouldn’t be surprised if he really wants this one and pushes to add another win to his resume. He knows he’s too good to have just one win on the PGA Tour at this point.
The other two golfers I’m eyeing in the DFS and betting markets ahead of the weekend are Cameron Davis and Dylan Frittelli, who are second and third in SG: Tee-to-Green on the week. They have the same story as Finau: They’ve dominated with the important clubs but just haven’t gotten it going on the greens. I’ll buy the off-the-tee and approach games and hope the putting gets better rather than the other way around.
That final sentence above leads me to a few guys I probably won’t be buying on the weekend, especially in DFS. Werenski, to be fair, has been largely fine tee-to-green, but fine won’t cut it the next two days. He’ll either have to step it up in that regard or continue the hottest putting in the field. If I had to bet, I’d wager he’ll come back to earth on the putter.
The two other guys I’ll mention are Xinjun Zhang and Nick Watney, who I just don’t believe have the firepower to get up to contention this weekend.
Zhang has been pretty solid tee-to-green this week, but compared to a lot of the guys around him on the leaderboard, he’s been merely fine with his approach shots. He’s gained quite a few strokes on and around the green, so if any part of his game falls off at all, he may not have the form with those crucial approach shots to put up big scores to contend.
Watney is a little different in that he’s gained most of his strokes with his approach shots and putter. The problem is that this course will require some firepower off the tee, and he’s been neutral to negative there. Long-term he’s really struggled to keep things in the fairway, which could be his undoing over the final two days.
Alright, enough talk. Here’s the data for all players for Friday.
(Note: The graph below is interactive. Click/hover to see data.)
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Photo credit: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Schauffele
Just like we all expected, the top-three spots of the leaderboard entering the weekend are filled up by Phil Mickelson, Will Gordon and Mackenzie Hughes.
Below them are some big names, though, in Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Marc Leishman. The former two had pretty mediocre second rounds but still sit within striking range of the top.
It’s been an interesting tournament, and expected afternoon thunderstorms will force tee times up tomorrow. Weather will definitely be a factor, perhaps especially Sunday if the rain softens up the course even more than it is.
Anyway, let’s dive into what’s happened the first two rounds and see what value we can find ahead of the weekend.
But first, a quick explanation on Strokes Gained data and what it means for golf handicapping.
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer is truly playing by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it has, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different — Strokes Gained measures how players handle them relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics…
In general, ball-striking and tee-to-green is more stable long-term, and often you can find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well but just not getting putts to drop, which is more random. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
I feel like I’m in a bit of a deja vu from last weekend, as Abraham Ancer and Joaquin Niemann are coming on incredible strong. They currently lead the field in Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking, and be it not for some poor short-game luck — pretty awful in Niemann’s case — they’d be near the top of the board again.
They’ve shown they can put up massive scores; the question at this point is whether they’re too far back at -8 for Ancer and -6 for Niemann. My opinion is that Ancer is in play to win, while Niemann probably is out of it given the disadvantage he’s put himself in to this point.
Still, there are ways you can buy expected improved performances, including in 3-balls, head-to-head props and DFS weekend contests. Given how they’ve played over the last several weeks — and with their irons this tournament — I feel confident in putting them as buys.
Marc Leishman is also up there in SG: Ball-Striking, and notably he’s not as far back, currently sitting at 9-under — four back from Phil at the top. Leishman fits this course very well, and the big difference between him and the guys above him has simply been putting. That could change on the weekend.
I don’t super love his price at 14/1 — I’m not seeing a particularly obvious value, although Will Gordon at 22/1 is nice if you believe in him — and thus I think I’ll try to find him in head-to-heads and roster him in DFS contests.
And here’s something you definitely should consider before you live-bet this tournament: DraftKings is offering a 30% profit boost in each round of the Travelers. That means if you want to bet Leishman at 14/1 for $25, you’d actually win $455 rather than $350, boosting your odds to over 18/1.
Speaking of Will Gordon, what a tournament so far for the 24-year-old without status on a professional tour. This would be a huge win for him obviously and an incredible story for golf.
I’m skeptical, though. There are a lot of superior players right around him, and while I want to believe, his putting numbers are just ludicrous this week. He’s second in the field in strokes gained there behind just Jhonattan Vegas, which will probably come down to earth.
To be fair, Gordon has been pretty darn solid with the rest of his game. But pretty darn solid will get you a top-20 or top-30, not a win, and he’ll need to keep up the crazy-hot putting to actually contend.
I love Xander, but the second round was bad. To be fair, he did stay under par and is in fourth place, but he lost 2.79 strokes on the approach game to the field.
He was able to make it up with the putter, and perhaps that continues, but if the ball-striking isn’t there, he’ll drop in a hurry. For what it’s worth, the same story could be said for Rory McIlroy.
Finally, Brendan Steele, who clearly likes TPC River Highlands given his history and play here this week, has also benefited from a super-hot putter that will likely regress.
Like Xander, he’s been neutral in the tee-to-green game, and if that continues on the weekend, guys will shoot 7- and 8-under and fly past him.
And no, I will not talk about Phil Mickelson. Why do you ask?
Alright, enough talk. Here’s the data for all players for Friday.
(Note: The graph below is interactive. Click/hover to see data.)
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Copyright 2021 © Action Network Inc, All Rights Reserved.Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | AdChoices
DISCLAIMER: This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.

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