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Галерея 2982521
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09/13/2021
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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
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Please name your holdings portfolio
Leverage:
1:1
1:10
1:25
1:50
1:100
1:200
1:400
1:500
1:1000
Please name your holdings portfolio
Leverage:
1:1
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Trapdoor for dollar, red flag for Fed: Mike Dolan
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LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar's accelerating decline from the heady highs of 2022 has a ways to go yet - but the speed of the drop may build a case for a soft landing of its own later this year.
A reversal of the near 30% jump in the dollar's main index, from the post-pandemic lows of early 2021 to September's 20-year peak, always seemed a sure bet once markets spied the peak of Federal Reserve interest rates on the horizon.
As it stands, a frantic Fed tightening campaign that supercharged the buck looks to be nearing an end amid evidence of steady disinflation. Futures see a couple more modest rate hikes and a 'terminal rate' somewhere just under 5% by midyear, followed by about a half point of cuts in the second half.
Taken in isolation, that would appears to have lopped more than 10% off the buck over the past three months.
But it's been much more than a Fed story. The stars are aligning against the dollar around the world.
Japan's dramatic currency intervention in October stabilised the then-plummeting yen but it culminated last month with the Bank of Japan's first gradual move away from its ultra-loose monetary policy. Braced for further tightening, the yen has now recovered almost 20% in little over two months and December's policy shift is unlikely to be a one-off.
As the European Central Bank turned more hawkish late last year in the face of double-digit euro zone inflation prints, the euro also rebounded sharply. It's accelerated since to clock 3-month gains of about 14% as a peculiarly warm winter and high natural gas storage halved the sky-high European gas prices that many had bet would seed recession, leading some to rethink the downturn as outages and rationing look to have been dodged.
And after unprecedented popular protests, China suddenly abandoned its draconian and economically damaging 'zero COVID' policy last month - with the prospect of a sharp rebound in Chinese demand this year lifting the yuan some 10% from last year's lows already.
Even though consensus forecasts at the start of the year seemed cautious about the extent of further moves, the constellation of recent events is forcing many global banks to reconsider their dollar views for the year.
Just this week, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS )'s team said they would "double down" on their dollar bearishness and cut forecasts further - seeing DXY 6% lower than previously and euro/dollar as high as 1.15 versus 1.08 before that.
"Macro forces once constraining dollar weakness are now amplifying it," they said. "Global growth is showing signs of buoyancy, macro and inflation uncertainty are waning, and the dollar is rapidly losing its carry advantage."
HSBC also sees the euro adding another 6% this year and last week cut its yearend dollar/yen forecast to 120 from 130 previously. "The dollar's correction lower has room to run."
To what extent investors are already positioned for this ongoing slide is less clear.
Weekly CFTC data shows speculative funds have been short dollars overall since November after holding a net long position for the previous 10 months.
But slightly strangely, given recent moves, global fund managers polled by Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ) this week still identified 'long U.S. dollar' as the 'most crowded trade' in world markets for the seventh straight month - albeit less so than in prior months.
A net 65% of respondents to their monthly investor survey still saw the dollar as overvalued.
And if you're inclined to look to charts and technical trends for a clue, the outlook is no better. A so-called 'death cross' - where the short-term 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day equivalent - occurred on the DXY chart last week and typically signals further sharp losses ahead.
And yet sharp currency moves often sow at least some of the seeds of their own recovery.
Last week gave one glimpse as to how.
Annual U.S. import price inflation unexpectedly accelerated again last month after eight straight months of decline, aggravated by the dollar's late year slide and suggesting the Fed's battle against inflation is far from being won if greenback losses snowball from here.
Policy pushback from the Fed always has the power to check prevailing dollar moves - but the flipside of dollar strength overseas could be even more powerful as European economies and Japan have to cope with volatility in dollar-priced energy and commodities.
The dollar surge last year exaggerated the imported energy price shock and inflation spike for Europe and Japan and also threatened a vicious circle as the outsize energy cost spiral ballooned trade deficits in both regions.
A sharp dollar reversal this year would presumably have the opposite effect, even at the margins, and potentially reduce the need for the sort of aggressive monetary tightening now being priced for the ECB and BOJ.
Circular arguments like that rarely work out as neatly in reality - but it is a reminder that extreme currency moves can often self-regulate.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
(By Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
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仕事で不在が続くアメリカ人夫→久しぶりに帰宅するも息子に“塩対応”をされた国際夫婦ならではのワケ
言葉って難しい！何気ない会話の中で、妻が放った一言が外国人の夫を“貶されている”と勘違いしてしまったワケ
美しい髪のヒントは頭皮にある？あのラサーナが約40年かけて開発したヘアケアシリーズ
中南米のカフェで朝食をとった日本人→食器の返却場所に困っていると…強面男性との“無言交流”にホッ
娘からスイーツを頼まれた父の“小さな意地悪”に「人柄の良さがダダ漏れ」「しあわせしかない」
ドアノブに服が引っかかり毒舌を吐く女性→ドアの向こう側で起きた“予想外の誤解”とは
同居人に『三寒四温』の意味を聞かれた女性→説明するも“予想外のリアクション”に困惑...！
母への愛が重めな娘→就寝直前、“物理的にも重いお願い”に読者「キュンだねぇ…」
「えっ待って...」買い物中、1人で放置された子どもを目撃した女性→幼少期の自分を重ね合わせ“切に願ったこと”とは
夫に愚痴をこぼすも返答にイラっとする妻→“回答指定の相談方法”でスッキリする様子に共感の嵐
家の中にいるはずの愛猫が見当たらない！顔面蒼白の飼い主が家中を探した結果…発見した“衝撃の場所”とは
叩かれても引っ掻かれても動じない2歳息子→“仏すぎる我が子の姿”に母「悟り開いてんのか？」
【声小さいあるある】ナチュラルに無視される...早々に会話を諦める...声が小さい女性の日常に共感の嵐
パチンコにハマった様子の夫→妻を勘違いさせた“謎ジェスチャー”を巡って繰り広げられる夫婦のすれ違い劇に爆笑！
＜人見知りが恋活＞「イライラしちゃうから」別れたい。直球で言った結果…
幼稚園の発表会で気合十分だった息子→迎えた本番で披露した“ある意味、最高な姿”に読者「ロックだね」「なんかカッコイイ」
よそ孫の報告は要りません！義母の言葉にわが子の発達を責められている気分になった私は
許可を得て店内撮影するも店員に怒鳴られた妻→相手にイライラした時の夫の“ジェントルマンすぎる対応”に反響の嵐
老人ホームのお花見に誘われたおじいさん→無愛想に断った理由が“甘酸っぱすぎる”ワケ【漫画】
『かっこいい』に憧れる3歳息子→アイドルさながらの“ファンサービス”に、読者「愛しさ大爆発」
＜元美容師が教える髪の話＞「時短で簡単！」トリートメントの効果がアップする方法とは！？
＜父が倒れた話＞「9万円です」家賃が値上がりしても父が引っ越さなかった理由は
「え、誰？私また何かやらかした？」大失態直後の新キャラ登場に焦る妻、実は＜9カ月で家を建てた話＞
12星座占い【3月9日・今日の運勢】1位はしし座！視野拡大の時。珍しさ・新しさを求めて吉。
【12星座別☆今日の運勢】3月9日の恋愛運1位はみずがめ座！自分でも驚くほど恋が充実する１日に
天野原みちるの星とタロットの物語2023年3月10日（金）～3月16日（木）
【12星座占いランキング】3月9日の総合運1位は牡牛座！ラッキーカラーは……
12星座別「あなたを心身ともに必要とする人」…乙女座を求めるのは地位が高い人
アメリカ在住で一児の母であるチコ（ ＠chiko_0913.2022 ）さん。国際ファミリーのあれこれや、くすっと笑える国際結婚マンガをInstagramで発信しています。
チコさんがまだ英語に慣れてなかった頃。アメリカ人男性から言われた言葉が引っかかり…？
チコさんがまだ英語に慣れていなかった頃、後に夫となるボビさんと出会います。ボビさんと話していたチコさんは、ボビさんが「ラマン」という単語を連発していることに気づきました。
意味を調べてみると「ラマン」＝「愛人」と出てきてビックリ。チコさんは、“私はそんな軽い女じゃねぇんだ”と文句を言うべく、後日、戦闘モードで食事に向かいます。しかし、向かった先にあったのはラーメン屋でした。
「ラーメン」を「ラマン」と聞き間違えていたんですね…！ チコさんは「耳が英語に慣れていなかったので、仕方なかったのですが…恥ずかしくてたまらない出来事でした」とコメントを残しています。恥ずかしかったかもしれませんが、なんともホッとする聞き間違いですね！
アメリカ在住主婦。
日本アニメ大好きアフリカ系アメリカ人夫・ボビさんと2021年生まれの息子・ジョセフとの日常をブログ・SNSにて発信中。
アメリカ生活の失敗や、国際ファミリーのおもしろネタを描いている。
中南米のカフェで朝食をとっていた五箇野人さんが食器を返却しようとしたところ…？
コンビニに行こうとしているカバさん。家族のみんなにほしいものを聞いたところ、こめ美ちゃんにいちごスイーツを所望されたのですが…？
テレビでウェザーニュースを見ているやまちさんとおなかちゃん。天気予報士が放った言葉に、やまちさんが反応すると…？
寝る前に「ままだーいすき」とえだまるさんへの愛をささやくももみちゃんは、あるお願いをしてきたそうで…？
魚田コットンさんは、買い物などに出かけたときに見かける、子ども連れの親のある行動が気になったようです。
仕事で失敗し、落ち込んでいたこしいみほさん。そこに“相談の妖精”が現れて…？
就寝時、猫の様子を見に行くと、チャチャちゃんの姿が見当たらないことに気がつき…？
騒がしい場所や“ピンポン”のない飲食店で、声が小さい人が抱えがちな悩みとは…？
ソファでくつろぐ、ぺにょり～たさんが、謎のジェスチャーとともに何かを呟いているようです…。
家族3人で年末年始の帰省を終えて、新幹線で帰宅していたときのことです。暖かい車内で娘は眠りにつき、穏やかな時間が流れていました。しかし、混雑し始めた車内で予想もしていなかった悲劇が……。
「出会いがない」――。元カレと別れてから、新しい恋愛を始められずにいたありねこさん。そんなありねさこんが、現在お付き合いされている彼氏・まちくんと出会ったのは、マッチングアプリでした。ありねこさんの実録、恋活奮闘マンガをご紹介します！
幸せな日々が続くと思っていた新婚生活。いざ始まってみると家事分担、家族計画、上辺の会話で喧嘩もできない──分かり合えないことだらけ。私だって働いてキャリアを積みたいのに…このまま彼の人生の一部で終わって…
クリエイター職の採用業務アシスタントとして、上司・大狼とバディを組むことになったハトちゃん。人との関わりが少ない仕事の経験しかなく、自己肯定感も低い彼女は、失敗ばかりしてしまいます。それでも、職場の先輩…
ぷにおちゃんのしぐさと表情がかわいすぎ！人気ライターにくきゅうぷにおさんの書籍をご紹介。
今回はさやまさんが幼稚園児の頃のお話。発表会の練習で、先生に褒められていたさやまさん。本番当日の様子はというと…？
発達がかなりのんびりだった娘に対して不安と心配が尽きなかった私。そんな私の気持ちを知らなかった義母は、よその孫の成長について、あれこれ私に話してくるのです。そんな義母の話を聞くたびに私は傷ついていました。
雑貨店の店長を務めるオムニウッチーさんがつづる、自身が経験した恋愛マンガ。34歳のときに転職し、そこで出会った10歳下の男性・高倉健と付き合い始めたオムニウッチーさん。結婚願望の強い高倉は、自分の両親との食事会を開催。その後、高倉の要望でオムニウッチーさんの母とも会うことに。改めて母が自分の結婚を気にかけていることを感じ、高倉との結婚を少しだけ意識し始めます。ただ高倉は価値観の違いを受け入れることが難しい人でもあり……。
B.B軍曹さんの夫、髭さんが実践しているという、イライラを落ち着かせる独特の方法とは？
老人ホーム仲間から花見に誘われた主人公。断ったようですが、その意外な理由とは…？
「かっこいい」への憧れが強い息子さんは、渾身のポーズを決めていますが…？
元美容師マンガ家の飛鳥時代さんは、自身の経験から得た髪の毛に関する知識を日々発信中。知っているとタメになる「ズボラでもできる」ヘアケア＆髪の豆知識とは——！？
2児の母でありヲタクであるエェコさんによる、お父さんが倒れたときの話を描いたマンガを紹介します。十数年前に家を出て以来、実家の家賃を知らなかったエェコさん。倒れたお父さんの経済状況を把握するために、管理会社に家賃を聞いてみたところ……。
マンションの取り壊しに伴い、1年以内に退去しなければならないと告げられた一家。妻は長女を出産し、育児に奮闘中。増税前に、小さな子を抱えながらの家探し・引っ越し……妻は不安が募ります。
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