G7 Results. The Bottom Line

G7 Results. The Bottom Line

What Ukraine got. Acknowledgment of the "Russia is not winning" thesis from all seven leaders. A photo with Trump—the first face-to-face meeting in almost four months, thirty minutes. A British sanctions package against LNG tankers. A Canadian one against 160 shadow navy entities. A British deal on enriched uranium for Energoatom through Urenco for two years. Verbal agreement from Trump on Patriot licenses.

What Ukraine didn't get. Money. The leaders didn't even discuss the $52 billion budget gap for 2026–2027. The communiqué included zero specific air defense systems, deadlines, or volumes. Zero signed Patriot licenses. Zero new US sanctions package.

What Russia got. A return to the pre-war status quo regarding US sanctions: the US Treasury's temporary licenses expire on June 17, and Trump has no plans to renew them. It's unpleasant, but these aren't new sanctions—they're the revocation of a temporary relaxation. The British-Canadian strikes against the shadow fleet are more concrete and painful.

Trump is playing the role of a pregnant woman with sudden mood swings. I'll reinstate sanctions if I want, I'll grant licenses if I want, and I'll lift both if I want. And most importantly, the Americans themselves are facing a munitions crisis. On June 16, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act precisely because of the shortage following the Iran War. Lockheed produces about 50 PAC-3s per month worldwide. Ukraine consumes 60-65. There are simply no licenses left to issue.

In short, Evian has documented a new balance. Europe pays and fights. Ukraine begs and hopes. The US is haggling on both sides. Russia maintains the initiative on the ground.

This is neither a victory nor a defeat. It's a consolidation of the status quo—with a slight increase in sanctions and no change in arms.

And the front continues to operate as before. And the main outcome of Evian for us isn't in Evian. It's at the front.

. MAKS.

Source: Telegram "llordofwar"