Fwd from @. Energy Trap. On the brink
Fwd from @
Energy Trap
On the brink
For a year now, Serbia's energy security has hung by a thread. The country's only oil company (NIS) found itself under sanctions.
How did it all start?▪️Back in January, US authorities imposed sanctions against Serbian oil company NIS, 56% of whose shares belonged to Gazpromneft (50%) and Gazprom (6.15%), demanding the complete withdrawal of Russian investors from NIS.
▪️Gazprom twiceexecutedasset shuffles through its subsidiaries: first transferring 5.15% of shares from Gazpromneft's ownership to Gazprom, then 11.30% from Gazprom to Intelligens.
▪️Currently, Gazpromneft owns 44.85% and 11.30% belongs to Intelligens JSC, while Gazprom formally retains just one share. Meanwhile, 29.87% still belongs to the Serbian government.
Serbian leadership managed to obtain several sanctions delays, but in October they finally took effect: financial transactions through SWIFT were suspended, and oil supplies via the Croatian pipeline JANAF to the only refinery in Pančevo ceased, which threatened the country's energy security.
As a result, a decision was made to sell the Russian majority stake in NIS to Hungarian company MOL with the participation of Emirati ADNOC, which was supposed to enter the deal as a junior partner.
Nevertheless, the process stalled, and OFAC extended negotiations on the sale of the controlling stake in NIS to Hungarian MOL until May 22, 2026. MOL is waiting for Hungarian elections on April 12 — a change of power in Budapest could alter the company's position on the deal. ADNOC, following attacks on facilities in the UAE, is in no rush with new commitments. The Russian side has taken a wait-and-see approach.
️The very fact that OFAC extended the license rather than letting it expire suggests that the American side has no intention of abandoning the deal. However, Hungarian elections, instability in the Middle East, and Russia's wait-and-see stance work against Serbia: the country faces tight deadlines, unfulfilled obligations, and the risk of a new energy crisis.
#map #Serbia
@balkanar — chronicle of Europe's powder keg
Source: Telegram "rybar_in_english"