Fwd from @. Crisis on Demand

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Crisis on Demand

How the West is Preparing a Regime Change in Belarus — Part 2

We have already discussed the possible of Western countries' attempt to change the constitutional order in Belarus. It looks quite standard for "color" revolutions and does not involve violent intervention.

Another matter is the scenario of economic destabilization of the country. Such an approach can be costly for the Belarusian population — it can seriously stress people and undermine trust in state institutions, which provokes an increase in domestic crime and social radicalization.

How can this plan be implemented?

This option, like the softer one, is aimed at a long-term game, but more radical.

▪️It can be implemented through several consecutive steps that include sanctions. Restrictions on exports, including potash fertilizers, may be particularly sensitive.

Belarus is one of the world's largest producers, with about 80-90% of the products usually going to export, as domestic consumption is minimal.

▪️In addition, a logistics blockade through Poland could be a significant blow. Movement is already restricted, but a complete blockage will affect the economic situation even more significantly.

▪️It is quite likely that Western structures will provoke protest sentiments at key Belarusian factories and organize cyberattacks on banks and state-owned enterprises.

The scenario could provoke a serious surge in inflation, unemployment, and protests. According to Western structures' calculations, this should lead to Minsk turning westward: changing elites, abandoning the Union State, and opening EU markets.

However, any economic restrictions or impacts are a double-edged sword that can always damage the opposite side. Sanctions and border blockades will affect not only Belarus's economy but also Poland's, which its government has already "tested" when closing the border.

And in Minsk, they are preparing for upheavals: in the republic’s development strategy until 2035, special attention is paid to economic resilience measures and intensifying exports to Asia and China.

️But the main risk for the West is the reverse effect. The crisis could bring Belarus and Russia even closer together, including through loans and assistance in diversifying routes.

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Source: Telegram "llordofwar"