Forecasting Political Risk: A Comparative Analysis of Time Series Prediction Methods

Predicting political risk is fundamentally different from economic forecasting. This article opens the Geopolitical Risk Intelligence series examining ARIMA(2,1,2), Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, and Polynomial Ridge Regression applied to World Bank Governance Indicators. The core argument: no single forecasting method is adequate for political risk modelling — hybrid architectures with anomaly detection are required....

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