Football Game Betting Template With Spread

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Written on September 5, 2003 — later updates (especially new software).
The success (performance) rate of SPORTS.XLS, the Excel spreadsheet for sports betting, is around 2 out of 3. Actually, it is higher at picking straight winners or pick 'em. It can still hit at least 60% when applied to point spread betting, as in the American football.
A 60% success rate translates equivalently that a player can pick one game at a time and be successful in 60% of the cases.
If picking 2 games, the probability goes down to: .6 x .6 = .36 or 36%.
Picking three games: .6 ^ 3 = 21.6%. A 5-team parlay can expect a success rate of .6 ^ 5 = 7.7%.
The most favorable case is for straight-up betting: One game only. The house advantage (edge) is also the most favorable: 10%. That is, a 1-unit bet returns a .9-unit payout. Usually, American football bettors pay 110 dollars for a 100 dollar win.
A five-team parlay offers, at best, a 25% house advantage.
If betting straight-up 10 times (or weeks, as in NFL pro football), the player should expect 6 wins and 4 losses. The four losses result in 4 units. The 6 wins amount to +(6 x .9) = +5.4 units. The net win is 1.4 units. If betting $100 at a time, the net profit should be $140 over a period of 10 weeks.
A probability of over 50% yields also longer winning streaks and shorter losing streaks. The mathematical player can draw a big advantage from that probability feature. The non-mathematical bettor should keep in mind that an over-50% probability tends to repeat in the very next trial; a bet increase is favorable. Conversely, a 60% probability event will not lose very often more than three consecutive trials; again, a bet increase after three consecutive losses is good money management.
The SPORTS.XLS spreadsheet can be further fine-tuned to cover more variables. For example: inter-division results; inter-conference results; keep track of losses against the point spread, etc.
Here is a very interesting aspect: Repeat-winning pro football teams from previous weeks. I have a 244-week result file in NFL (National Football League, USA). The results are against the point spread (ATS). The last result is week 5, the 2006 NFL season.
Given my previous type of software, I recorded 15 results in every professional football week. If the week has only 14 games (due to bye-week scheduling), I write open at the end of the result line. If there are 16 games in the week, I discard the result of the Monday Night Football game.
The software counts how many NFL teams from one week were also winners in: one week back, two weeks back, and three weeks back. The results are very similar, as far as the average number of repeat-winners is concerned. I analyzed 20 weeks, 100 weeks, and 244 weeks. Here are the averages:
1-. Repeat-winning NFL teams from one week back:
Average number of repeats: 6.36.
2-. Repeat-winning NFL teams from two weeks back:
Average number of repeats: 6.45.
3-. Repeat-winning NFL teams from three weeks back:
Average number of repeats: 6.48.
Usually, there are fewer winning teams in the first week of the season in rapport to the last week of the previous season. Things change from one season to the next! Betting against the winning NFL teams in the previous week(s) offers a positive balance.
How about random play, like the quick-picks in lottery? It could help the biased sports betting player. Many sport bettors have a bias towards favorite teams, including football. Reality is that only a tiny minority of teams are dominant. Therefore, most biased players are losers. They would be better off choosing the winners randomly. I offer free software to pick sports results in a random manner, like the lottery. This page lists the most important sport programs that generate random sports picks — as numbers and also team names.
A program I wrote in August 2003 has become a big success: PermuteCombine. The combinatorial software generates all four types of numeric sets: permutations, arrangements (some say permutations of N, M; like exactas and trifectas at horse racing), combinations (like in lotto), exponents (like in the pick-3 lottery and soccer pools 1,x,2). The program generates numbers OR words (such as sports teams names). There is a sample text file — TEAMS.NFL — with all 32 NFL football teams. The option applicable to the American football is Arrangements, then Words, Random.
The option applicable to soccer pools (1,x,2) is Exponents, Words, Random (use the sample file 1X2.TXT).
It's best to run a random option several times in a row. Hitting in a first try is a rare event in gambling. The program is presented on this page: Calculate, generate exponents, permutations, combinations, for any numbers or words (text, such as sport team names).
Here is a list of software that handles sports betting. Check the software download site for all that's available as free-to-run (for registered members only).
• SPORTS.XLS - an Excel 95 spreadsheet. This is a template to use with the sports betting system presented on the aforementioned Web page (Sports Prognosticating or Betting - Best System).
• BellCurveGenerator generates combinations within the bell (Gauss) curve, including for sport bet. The Fundamental Formula of Gambling calculates the median automatically. The application handles just about any game: pick 3 4 lottery, lotto, Powerball, Mega Millions, horse racing, roulette, sports betting (including the famous European soccer pools and American sports teams). It is not a simple observation or following the guts: It is a formula, therefore a law. The results tend to cluster in the FFG median area, with no exception. I have analyzed extensively 5-team parlays in the NFL. The games have been randomly selected. The results come predominantly from the FFG median area. I am yet to see results such as combination #1, or combination #2, or #31, or #32! Roulette is different because the numbers are not laid out sequentially. A special conversion is necessary!
• PermuteCombine: generate random or sequential sets (combinations) of sport team names and soccer pools 1x2. No other program in the world can do what PermuteCombine does!
• BetUS is an intelligent random combination generator for sports betting, the American way. The player selects a number of games to bet on. The player bets on either the favorite football team to win by more than the point spread, or the underdog to lose by less than the point spread.
• AMBET is much like BETUS32 — with a twist! You can add W or L at the end of a team name. Add W if the NFL football team was a winner in the previous game (week). Add L if the team lost the last game (week). For example:
COLTS-L, CHIEFS-L
BRONCOS-L, PATRIOTS-W
• Generate1X2 generates football pools (variants, reduced systems) from text files with 1,X,2 symbols. The input files can have from 2 to 16 games (for NFL games as well). The special Randomization function in the generating of variants offers better chances to hit higher prizes, as compared to lexicographically-reduced 1X2 systems (minus 1).

Football spread betting works by playing on a 'spread' or prediction on the number of things to happen in a match.
Step 1: Choose a spread market on a match. E.g. the 'spread' on Total Goals may be 2.8 - 3.
Step 2: Decide if you think the final outcome will be higher or lower than the spread.
Step 3: If higher (e.g. more than 3 goals) you would buy. If lower (fewer than 3 goals) you would sell.
Step 4: Your profit or loss depends on the difference between your buy or sell level and the final outcome, multiplied by your stake.
See more in our short video on football spread betting.
From Shirt Numbers to Goal Minutes we have a market for you! Find out more via the links below.
To place a football spread bet, look at the Spreadex prediction or spread on the market in question.
If you think the outcome will be higher than our price, then you would buy on the spread.
If you think the outcome will be lower than our price, then you would sell on the spread.
The more right you are the more you can win, but the opposite is the case if you get it wrong, as you may lose more than your initial stake.
Try out placing a football spread bet using our interactive spread betting calculator below:
Try our interactive widget below for examples of how football spread betting works for a theoretical £10 bet on different markets.

Alternatively, read on for more examples explaining how to place a football spread bet.

The widget shows in more detail how spread betting markets can differ in volatility. For example, the range of the outcome for a Total Goal Minutes or Player Goal Minutes football spread bet is far greater than for a Goal Supremacy or Total Goals spread. Therefore, it is important to choose a stake level you are comfortable with for different markets.

Try using the widget for different football markets to see how potential profit and loss levels can vary. This will help you practice football spread betting and give you an idea of how the markets work before you try for real yourself.


Heading into the evening’s Champions League quarter-final, you think a particularly in-form striker is going to get a bagful, so take a look at Spreadex’s Player Goal Minutes spread betting market.

Spreadex is quoting Player A Goal Minutes at 29-32, so you decide to buy £2 at 32. The striker continues their blistering run and scores a hat-trick, with goals in the 23rd, 52nd and 77th minutes. That leads to a Player A Goal Minutes make-up of 23 + 52 + 77 = 152, leading to a profit of £240 ((152 – 32) x £2).

Say, however, the striker doesn’t have such a hot night, and they only score in the 23rd minute. That means you would end up with a loss of £18 ((23 – 32) x £2).
It’s the opening game of the Bundesliga and you think a hotly-tipped player is going to flop on the big stage, so take a look at Spreadex’s Player Goal Minutes spread betting market.

Spreadex is quoting Player A Goal Minutes at 35-38, so you decide to sell £2 at 35. As you suspected, the player bottles it, failing to find the back of the net. This leaves you with a profit of £70 ((35 – 0) x £2).

Let’s say, however, that the forward does score, but in the 29th minute. That would still leave you with a profit of £12 ((35 – 29) x £2).

But what would happen if you got it wrong? The forward bags a first half brace, with goals in the 13th and 32nd minutes, leading to a Player Goal Minutes make-up of 45. That would mean you’d make a loss of £20 ((35 – 45) x £2).
In-play football bets allow you to open or close bets at any point after kick-off up until the final whistle meaning you can close out of your bets early either to take profits or to cut losses.
At Spreadex we offer in-play football betting on every Premier League game, regardless of whether the game is being shown live on television.
If you’ve never placed football bets in-play before, simply visit the Spreadex site on your computer, tablet or phone when you are watching a live football match and watch as our prices change throughout the game.
If you disagree with a prediction made by our trader on a certain market at any time, then that signals your chance to place an in-play bet and back your judgement!
This is the predicted margin in goals, by which one team will beat another and the price, or spread, will indicate which team is being placed as favourite over the other.
For example Spreadex may quote Team A over Team B with a Supremacy price of 0.6 - 0.8. If Team A beats team B 4-1 the Supremacy price will make-up at 3 (4 – 1 = 3). So a £10 buy at 0.8 in this instance will result in a £22 profit ((3 – 0.8) x £10 = £22).
However, the market can also have a negative make-up. So if Team B beats Team A 1-0, the Supremacy price will make-up at -1 (0 – 1 = -1). So the £10 buy at 0.8 would result in an £18 loss ((-1 – 0.8) x £10 = -£18).
Total Goals: The total number of goals we think will be scored in a match.
Shirt Numbers: The combined total of all the goalscorers’ shirt numbers in a match. 
First Match Goal: The time, in minutes, of the first goal in a match (0-0 draw makes-up at 90).
Total Goal Minutes: The combined total, in minutes, of all the goals scored in a game.
Last Match Goal: The time, in minutes, of the last goal in a match (0-0 draw makes up at 0).
Player Goal Minutes: The combined total, in minutes, of goals scored by a named player in a match.
Total Points: The number of points a named team will achieve during an entire league season. For example, Spreadex may quote Manchester United’s Team Points at 76 - 77.5. Buy at 77.5 if you think United will end with 78 points or more. Sell at 76 if you think United will end with 75 points or fewer.
Championship Index: We award Premier League teams points according to their final league position. The champions receive 60 points, 2nd = 40, 3rd = 20, 4th = 10, 5th = 5 points.
Relegation Index: We award teams points according to their final league position. Predict the points total a named team will achieve. The team that finishes last is awarded 50 points, 2nd bottom 25, and 3rd bottom 10.
Corners: A prediction on the total number of corners that will be taken in a match, by both teams. So if Team A takes 8 corners and Team B takes 5 corners the market will make-up at 13.
Multi-Corners: The number of corners taken (for both teams) in the first half, multiplied by the number of corners taken (for both teams) in the second half. 
Cross-Corners: The total number of corners taken by one team, multiplied by the total number of corners taken by the other team. 
Corners Squared: The total number of corners taken in a match, squared. E.g. if there were 12 corners taken in total in a match, this market would make-up at 144 (12 x 12).
Match Bookings: For every yellow card in a game we award 10 points, for every red card we award 25 points. There is a maximum make-up of 35 points per player.

Player Card Minutes: A spread for each player based on the minute that player receives a yellow card. If the player does not receive a yellow card during the match, the market makes up at 0. Red cards count double, with the maximum make-up per player 270. 
Cross Bookings: Team A's Total Bookings Points multiplied by Team B's Total Bookings Points.
Multi-Bookings: 1st Half Match Bookings Points multiplied by 2nd Half Match Bookings Points.
Home/Away: Predict the difference between total goals scored by the home teams and the total goals scored by the away teams over a group of matches. If the home teams scored 6 goals in total and the away teams scored 8 goals overall, the market would make-up at -2.
Total Goals: Predict the combined number of goals scored across a number of matches. 
Fastest Goal: The time, in minutes, of the fastest goal scored from a selected group of matches. 
Spreadex Bankers: A number of named teams are each awarded 25 points if they win, and an extra 25 points is awarded if all named teams win. Predict the combined points total for the named teams. If team A won, team B won and team C won the market would make-up at 100.
25:10 Index: Spreadex awards the winning team 25 points and the losing team receives zero. If the game is a draw, both teams receive 10 points. 
Team Performance: Spread based on the following occurring in a match: Win = 25 points, draw = 10, goal = 15, clean sheet = 10, each corner taken = 3, each yellow card = -5, each red card = -15.
Match Performance: Spread based on the following occurring in a match: Goal = 15, corner = 3, yellow card = 5, red card = 15, penalty awarded = 10, 0-0 draw = -25.
Team Mini Performance: Spread based on the following occurring in a match: Win = 15 points, draw = 5, goal = 10, clean sheet = 5, red card = -15.
As well as offering a huge selection of football spread betting markets, Spreadex also provides a full fixed odds football betting service with three Cash Out options for in-play betting.
You can find all your favourite fixed odds football bets such as Match Odds, Total Goals, Over /Under, Correct Score, Winning Margin, Half Time/Full Time, Handicap Result, Time of First Goal, First Goalscorer etc with prices displayed in fractional or decimal format.
Bet on Runs, Bowler Performance, Fall of Next Wicket, Player Performance, Wides, 4s, 6s and much more.
Bet on Winning Distances, Favourites, SPs, Jockey Performance, Double Numbers, Match Bets and much more.
Bet on Total Points, Time of First Try, Tryscorers' Shirt Numbers, Match Performance, Bookings and much more.
Bet on Match Supremacy, Player 25:10s, Total Sets, Total Games, Game Supremacy, X-Courts, Total Points and much more.
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In relation to spread betting, Spreadex Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses larger than your initial stake/deposit. It may not be suitable for everyone so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved.
In relation to fixed odds and casino, Spreadex Ltd is licensed and regulated in Great Britain by the Gambling Commission under account number 8835. Click here to see our Privacy Policy.
In relation to casino betting outside of Great Britain, Spreadex Ltd is operating under an NetEnt Alderney Limited approved Business Association with AGCC Class II License Holder, NetEnt Alderney Limited, License #084.

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