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Written by Alex Murphy on April 30, 2015
So you pull up your favorite betting website to see what the numbers are for the upcoming Sunday action in the National Football League. One game has the home team at -4, while another has the visitors at +10.5. It’s important to understand in a specific way what these numbers mean and how to use them toward your own advantage.
Handicappers calculate point spreads for each game to make the final outcome as close as they can, for betting purposes. In the NFL, point spreads usually range from “PK” (pick) to 13.5. In some cases, point spreads are even larger (and they are frequently larger in college). Because of the parity in the NFL, though, a line of more than two touchdowns is almost unheard of. Those sports bettors who want to maximize their profits take the time to understand what the point spread is saying about the likeliest outcome of a particular game.
Most of the time, playing at home grants a team a 3-point edge on the line. If the home team is favored by 3 or 3.5 points, that means that the handicappers view the matchup as a dead heat. If the home team is up near -7, the handicapper is seen as a favorite. If a home team gets points, they are underdogs. The more points they have with a plus sign, the bigger the underdog they’ve become.
A good point spread makes the bettor feel comfortable. If you feel uncomfortable with a spread, you have two options: choose a different game for your wager or look for a moneyline bet that doesn’t rely on a point spread. The moneyline method involves betting on the game’s outcome rather than the margin of victory.
The best point spread often does not appear without some shopping around. People who take their sports betting seriously always have accounts at multiple sites. They look each day at the sites for the best spreads. Even just grabbing an extra half or full point by shopping around can make the difference when that last-minute field goal changes the margin of victory. It’s important to research your matchups and the point spread to get the best result possible.
Wikipedia.org (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-odds_betting)
NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/stats/team)
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If you want to know who is going to cover this week's matchups and are looking for best bets, look no further than BetQL. For the entirety of the new NFL season, there is no better place to come to for best bets. Every week during the season including, we will unlock a couple games for free to let you experience what we have to offer first hand. Keep reading below to get our break down of our free best bets for this, and find out which games we love this week
At BetQL we will let you take a free look inside our tool by giving away free best bets every week, so you can see what it is like to have a full membership. With a BetQL subscription you will be able to see our projected score, which side our NFL model is projecting, all the public betting info and percentages, and which side the sharps are on for each of these games. As always no matter if you have a BetQL subscription or you are checking in for free we will always have the most updated odds, lines, and spreads for every game on that week. We also will have entire previews written by our sports betting and NFL experts giving away their picks and thoughts on each game. All of that information will be available to you no matter how you bet, so make sure to check out BetQL. If you aren't here for our best bets against the spread and you may be more interested in our NFL over under picks we have you covered. At BetQL we have picks for every single game and every bet type so even if you just want to tail us on some 1st half picks we have that too, BetQL has everything you need to be a better bettor.
As stated above, there is no-one that is quicker to get their picks out than BetQL. We want to be sure that you get the best odds for every game and secure that closing line value before it is stripped away. Our picks go live the instant the NFL odds are released, so you won’t have to wait on the experts to sort through all the research and data. Our computer model does that in seconds after each game is played, so it is already able to make a pick as soon as the lines come out on which way the data is telling you to bet. BetQL is a faster way to make smarter and more informed bets.
We rank each of our best bets on a scale of 1 to 5 Stars, with 5 Stars being the most profitable bets each week. Our computer model is able to identify trends and player statistics to see who is performing up to par, and who is slumping. We use real time data and analysis to predict each score, so picking the spread has never been easier. Our best bet model even uses real time NFL spreads to create our star ratings, so if the line moves drastically one way our best bet will update as well. When you are betting following BetQL's best bets you know you are betting with the most value. Our NFL best bet model also creates its own spread for each game, so if there is a large discrepancy between our model's spread and the actual point spread, we highlight that in our bet analysis. You also get our best bets faster than anyone else, because our model begins working on them as soon as the NFL point spreads are released on Sunday nights. With BetQL, there is no more worrying about which games to bet on during the NFL season. We even adapt in-game, so you can find the best value on the point spread while the ball is in the air.
We have you covered for every game, from the first kickoff of the season until the last second ticks off the clock in the Super Bowl. No other sports betting service can get you picks against the spread faster and with a higher winning percentage than BetQL, meaning we will keep you ahead of the bookmakers all season long. If you want to start making the most informed NFL picks and getting the best closing line value around on the spread, then subscribe to BetQL and start beating the books
Betting on the NFL can be fun or heartbreaking, but it also can be a bit difficult to understand if you are new. BetQL is here to get you up to speed on the things you need to know to bet on professional football. When some one is talking about NFL betting lines they are talking about, the point spread, and the odds. Both of these are crucial to betting against the spread so if you think you aren't ready to bet on point spreads we recommend checking out our NFL moneyline picks, where you can find picks just based on who you think will win the game. Below you can learn more about NFL point spreads and NFL lines, so you will be ready to bet against the spread like a pro this season.
The most common way to bet on the NFL, and college football for that matter, is betting Against The Spread (ATS). So, what is betting ATS? Figuring out how NFL spreads work in betting is not as hard as it might sound to someone who is new to the gaming industry. There are so many terms and words that any novice sports bettor probably never has heard before, or at least, never knew what any of them meant. So, let BetQL explain how betting on the spread works in the NFL. For every game, there will be a point spread. You just have to bet on whether or not a team will cover that point spread. Basically, a team either needs to win by so many points, or keep the game within so many points. The best way to really explain this is by using a game as an example of how the point spread works, so we’ll use one below. The team that is favored will be listed with a negative number (ie. -5) and that is the number they need to win the game by. In this example the favorite must win by 6 or more points to “cover” the spread and win the bet. If they win by exactly 5-points the bet is considered a “push” or “no-bet”. The inverse of this example is called the underdog and next to their team will be a positive number (ie. +5) and this number is the maximum their team can lose by. In this example the underdog can lose by 5 points or less to be considered a win. If the team loses by exactly 5 then the bet is considered a “push” or “no-bet”. Overall NFL point spreads are put in place by the sportsbook to attempt to get bets on each team.
NFL Point Spread Example: Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Chicago Bears (+7)
(Packers Must Win By More Than 7 Points) Chicago Bears +7 (Bears Can’t Lose By More Than 7 Points)
The Green Bay Packers are playing the Chicago Bears in Chicago at Soldier Field, and the NFL point spread is set at 7 with the Packers favored. The Bears (+7) can lose the game by up to 7 points and still cover. The Packers (-7) must win the game by at least 8 points to cover the point spread, as a 7-point win would be a push and you just get your bet refunded. So, let’s say the Bears with their new starter Justin Fields beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers 24 to 21. In this scenario, the Bears (+7) actually won 31 to 14 against the Packers (-7). That’s because if you are going by the point spread, you add 7 to the final score for the Bears, and take away 7 points for the Packers. Whoever came out on top after that calculation, was the winner of the bet. In this case, all Bears backers win and everyone who bet the Packers takes the loss.
When some one mentions NFL odds they are talking about the statistical probability that a team is likely to win the game. When it comes to betting on the NFL the odds are basically the price you pay for any certain bet, which we will explain more below. When betting on the NFL the odds will always be listed next to the point spread, and again this number signifies how likely a team is to win the game. The NFL odds will always be in parenthesis (-110) next to the point spread and the more negative a number the more likely they are to win the game, so if you see a team is (-110) that means it is mostly a toss up, but the sportsbook believes that side will win. If you see a very negative number like (-250) it means the sportsbook is very confident that this team will cover the spread and you have to pay more to win money. The format of NFL is usually the American Odds which works in values of 100, and when you see (-110) that means you have to wager $110 to win $100. When you see odds that are more negative like (-250) it means you have to wager $250 to win $100. On the other side if you see a positive number that team is the underdog so if a team is (+110) it means that the sportsbooks think they will lose and not cover, but it should be a close game. If odds are a large positive number it means the team is not very likely to win and you will win a lot of money if they are able to cover the point spread. For example if a team is (+110) to cover the point spread you will win $110 if you place a $100 wager on the team. If a team's odds are (+250) it means you will win $250 off of a $100 wager.
We know betting against the spread can be a bit confusing and learning about NFL odds and point spreads isn't exactly easy so we wrote out some examples for you below
NFL Odds Example: Chicago Bears (+7, -110) vs. Green Bay Packers (-7, -110)
This NFL odds example should be fairly simple to understand once you know what the numbers mean. In this instance, both odds are listed as -110. This simply means is that in order to win $100, you must bet $110 dollars on either side. The amounts do not have to be this small or large either, as it would mean the same thing with any amount. An $11 wager would win you $10, while an $1,100 dollar wager would win you $1,000, and so on. This extra price you have to pay is called “vig” or “juice” on a line. Think of it like a tax you are having to pay the books to place your bet.
There are times when you will see a “plus-money” odds with a spread bet, however, that is very rare. If you do see one, it will simply have a “+” instead of a “-“ in front of the number. Let’s say the number is +160. What this means is that if you bet $100 on this line, you would win $160. So, you are not having to pay a tax at all, and instead, you are getting a much higher payout. Lines like these are always on a bet that is more unlikely to win, so you will have to be okay with the risk that involves being in the unfavorable situation. The larger the odds, the bigger the underdog, and the more you can win by betting them if they win.
Luckily for all of us, BetQL is here to tell us if there is any value in the lines that get released each week. If a team is favored by a -500 mark, you have to bet $500 to win $100, which means that is a huge favorite and a big risk if they lose. BetQL will let you know
Lines are very easy to figure out. When someone says “What’s the line?”, they are basically just asking you what the spread is. In the examples from above, you’d just say that the spread is seven with Green Bay favored, and the odds are -110 both ways. When you go to the sportsbook, you’ll see a whole bunch of numbers that will probably be confusing or overwhelming to the novice sports bettor. Betting the NFL can also be heartbreaking, but by knowing what the line is, you’ll be able to make a more informed bet. Don’t go into a sportsbook unprepared and without knowing what certain dialogue means. BetQL is here to help you bet on these lines and make smarter bets that win.
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1. 3 to 5 star best bet rating to indicate strong value right now
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