Fierce Resistance in Bakhmut and Avdiivka

Russia continues to attack on several fronts. Ukraine has not yet given up on Bakhmut and Avdiivka, despite the difficult situation in each case. What is the situation and what is needed?

In the Luhansk region, Russia continues to attack northeast of Kupiansk. Russia is becoming more active in this area. Further and stronger attacks on the Ukrainian bridgehead east of the Oskil river are likely.

Russia also continues attacks northwest, south, and southwest of Kreminna. Russia is making significant efforts here, but has been unable to gain additional space around Kreminna.

Russia continues to push north and northwest of Bakhmut and has already advanced about 20 km along the road from Backhmut toward Sloviansk. The total distance from Bakhmut to Sloviansk is about 45 km.

In Bakhmut itself, fighting continues, especially in the eastern and northern parts of the city. West of Bachmut, at least one supply route and potential withdrawal route remains under Ukrainian control.

South and southwest of Bakhmut, the Russian attackers have so far succeeded in making much smaller gains in terrain than in the northwest of the city. 

Skepticism now prevails among Ukrainian and international experts as to whether Ukraine's long, high-loss, high-risk holdout in Bakhmut can be justified or whether a withdrawal from Bakhmut and continuation of the defense on the then shortened front line should have been undertaken some time ago.

The Ukrainian General Staff appears to continue to believe that, with the high Russian losses at Bakhmut and the bringing in of additional Russian forces from other sections of the front, the continued holding of Bakhmut could significantly weaken or possibly culminate the entire Russian attack.

Like Bakhmut, Avdiivka northwest of Donetsk is now surrounded on three sides by Russian attackers. Ukraine nevertheless continues to defend Avdiivka as well.

Currently, there are no more Russian attacks near Vuhledar. After the heavy losses there, Russia possibly moved the remaining forces in the directions of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Ukraine continues to need significantly more 155mm caliber artillery ammunition. Although there are discussions about the ammunition shortage and the need to increase production capacity in some NATO countries and at the EU level, there are no major new deliveries of ammunition to Ukraine yet.

Ukraine needs more commercial drones, especially those with night vision capabilities, and more systems for drone defense.

As many mortars and mortar ammunition as possible are needed, especially on the front lines near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Ukraine needs weapons and ammunition with longer ranges, as Russia has adjusted to the currently available ranges of Ukrainian artillery and rocket artillery.

The infantry fighting vehicles and main battle tanks promised in January and February are now gradually arriving, and after the crews are trained, exercise for combined arms maneuvers can begin. Overall, the number of modern battle tanks is still too low, and more are needed.

Ukraine needs a steady pipeline of training and exercise. Currently, some of this is already underway, and it is imperative for it to be perpetuated and expanded.

Overall, Russian attacks are underwhelming. The political and media focus on Bakhmut seems excessive from a military perspective from both sides. With strong continued assistance with munitions, material, and exercise, partners could bring Ukraine back into the initiative.

Ukraine's partners have an opportunity to shorten the time to liberate Ukrainian territories and end the war with massive assistance to Ukraine. This would be a more sensible strategy than repeatedly just waiting for Russia to engage in new activities and then responding belatedly.

Maps: @War_Mapper @AndrewPerpetua

All Ukraine Updates: Nico Lange | Lage in der Ukraine