Far Cry

Foreigners should understand that people in Russia don't know much about the Far East. Only 8mln people out of 146mln Russians live there. Majority of Russians never visited that federal district (me included), because of the big distance and relatively high travel costs. So when you read articles or commentary on Khabarovsk, bear in mind that their authors can sit in Moscow.

The Far East has its peculiarities. That was, and in many ways is, a frontier of the Russian state, which is often compared to the American Wild West. People there are the descendants of enterprising colonists, who were ready to take fate into their own hands. It doesn't even matter whether it's true or not, because Far Easterners believe in this and act accordingly: protests are rather common there. This adventurous mindset played a dirty trick to the Far East after the collapse of the USSR, when many people there joined the ranks of criminal structures. When a person from European Russia says that he started his business in 90-ies, with 40%-50% probability that means the dead bodies of his competitors somewhere in the basement of his shop or industrial plant. On the Far East this probability is much higher. Considering Furgal a businessman, I'm almost sure the charges are true.

In 2018 the government started "pension reform", which in fact just made retirement age higher. Russians were angry at this decision, and many of them decided "to punish" United Russia party on the nearest regional elections. That reaction was predicted by the Russian authorities and they banned some prominent opposition leaders throughout Russia, de-facto turning elections into formal approval procedure. Still, two problems with governors elections left. First, at least two candidates must participate. Second, probably more important, if a candidate gets less than 50% of votes, the second tour of elections must be declared.

The tasks of the authorities were clear:

1. Find some nonames as competitors for United Russia candidates.

2. Pump the turnout through dependent electorate (officials, teachers, doctors and other people who get salary from the state).

3. Cover the info about the elections for the others. It is forbidden, so authorities just didn't organize a broad media campaign.

In general these tactics proved to be working. The problems started in the regions governed by unpopular figures, who wanted to keep their posts. There were two such regions in the Far East, Primorsky krai and Khabarovsky krai. Primorye deserved another article, let's stay with Khabarovsk. Vyacheslav Shport was the governor of Khabarovsk krai since 2006. I can't say that he was a bad ruler, but people were really tired of him. During his long reign Khabarovsk lost competition to "neighbouring" (600km, but for the Far East it is close) Vladivostok, which became a place for various federal infrastructure projects. "Pension reform" became a final blow for the United Russia party in the region. Furgal from LDPR was viewed as an acceptable and weak opponent, but underestimation of the United Russia disapproval ratings led to the second tour of the elections, and situation changed dramatically. It's hard to mobilize dependent electorate the second time, while all opposition supporters got strong motivation to vote and change things. Consequently, Furgal won the elections with overwhelming majority.

Unlike many other candidates, who came to power accidentally, Furgal turned to be an efficient administrator. He cut excessive regional spending, helped local business, was very active in communication with people through social networks. Later Furgal managed to organize LDPR victory in regional parliament. Unfortunately, the success of opposition, even only in name, frustrated bureaucrats from the Kremlin and federal elites on the Far East. Everything ended up by Furgal's arrest on 9th of July.

As I said before, I don't believe in Furgal's innocence. The thing is, this case is not about organized crime. Also it is not ideological conflict between "nationalists" from LDPR and Putin, like many people outside Russia think. It is a political struggle between ambitious regional leader and federal powers, which prefer to have servants instead of governors. People in Khabarovsk understood that and stand for their governor. Some western media support this movement because hoping that Khabarovsk krai will become a separatist hotbed. There are some chances for this transformation, but they are very low.

On 20th of July the Kremlin appointed new governor from LDPR. I can say a lot about Mikhail Degtyarev, but what is important now, he doesn't have any administrative or economic experience. Taking into account the reluctance of Khabarovsk people to accept new governors, I think that Dyagterev will be a puppet of federal elites till the end of Furgal's term, and then he will be replaced by someone else.