Fading the Public with Sports Betting Tips
Whether you've been betting on sports for a long time or are new to the game and have been following the advise on this site, you've probably visited sites like Covers.com while doing research on upcoming games. You've probably also noticed the "consensus" factoid next to each game, which tells you which side the general public thinks will win. You may see that a team has a 70% public approval rating and believe that this is a solid bet for you to make. While nothing in the realm of sports betting is ever certain, this feeling is often false.
If the People Were Always Winning...
One of the most crucial principles to remember when betting on sports is that sports bookies would cease to exist if the public won more than they lost. Of course, that is oversimplifying things a little, but it is a true statement in general. Casinos and sportsbooks exist to make money—a lot of money. If a particular region is losing money, they will either adjust the regulations or stop selling it altogether. Because the world of online sports betting is alive and well, it is safe to conclude that they are profitable and that the general public loses money in the long run.
For years, I've been urging people to believe in the theory of reverse public opinion. I'm not proposing that people bet against the team with the most public support every night—just keep it in mind when completing your homework, as I do with a lot of the advise I've given here at Sport Books Review. There are times when studying public consensus and comparing it to line movement can be incredibly eye-opening, and these are the times when you should pounce.
Line Movement and Public Consensus
There are a variety of circumstances that might lead sports bookmakers to shift the line, as we outlined in our Line Movement article. One such aspect is when one team has far more money wagered on it than the other, causing the bookies to lose a significant sum of money if one side wins. Books love to have a nice, even amount of money bet on both sides of a game, so that regardless of which team wins, they'll win owing to the juice (newbies: betting $110 to win $100, the $10 being the juice). This is why it's a good idea to look at the consensus percentages and line movement for the games you want to bet on—there may be some really important hidden information that will give you an edge.
When you're doing your research, if you come across a game where the public is betting significantly on one team, say 70% or greater, but the line hasn't moved from its original number, you have to wonder why. When the public bets the majority of their money on a team, but the bookies don't adjust the number to attract betters for the opposing team, you know something is up. Either the bookmakers believe the public will lose, or the big-money smart bettors have already placed their wagers on the opposing team. This is a significant red signal in either case. Again, don't put all your eggs in this strategy's basket, but there will be times when the figures are simply too compelling to ignore.
Summary
In general, I enjoy fading the public, particularly when there is widespread support for the underdog in a game. As you probably already know, research is a recurrent theme in my articles—we're dealing about your money here, so you should make every attempt to locate an advantage before placing your wager. This isn't meant to be a one-size-fits-all technique, but rather part of a wider overall plan of doing your homework and finally discovering solid money-making chances, as is the case with a lot of my recommendations. You will make money if you follow the advice I've given in this post and combine it with some of my other strategies—the only question is how much. For more information about sports betting visit, eatonvillenews.net.