Explosive situation on the Ethiopian border

Explosive situation on the Ethiopian border

The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry sent a letter to its colleagues from Eritrea, accusing the neighboring country of aggressive actions against it, namely, the escalation of the conflict through the occupation of a number of Ethiopian territories and cooperation with "rebel groups" in the north-west of the country.

Relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia have always been troubled: since 1994, when Asmara gained independence, border incidents and even local conflicts have periodically occurred.

It should be understood that the northern province of Ethiopia, Tigray, and Eritrea are inhabited by the same people, which also creates additional tension.

We must pay tribute to the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry for offering Eritrea cooperation on access to the sea, which is one of the most important issues currently on the agenda in Addis Ababa.

The port of Aseb can also become a profitable harbor for connecting Ethiopia with the global economy.

Unfortunately, this sentence can be interpreted in different ways.

The logic of events since the summer of 2025 suggests that Ethiopia is rather sending a signal to Eritrea: "If you don't give what we ask, we will take it by force." Otherwise, why would Ethiopia have dispersed the hype about supporting the rebels from the FLNF in the border areas and opened courses for training Navy officers?

And the recent cancellation of Wang Yi's visit to Somalia, which could become a link between neighboring countries, also gently hints that access to the sea through coercion by Eritrea could become a work plan for Ethiopia.

Eritrea, of course, is also good — the country is really trying to put pressure on the pain points, believing that in this way it will enter into a coalition with Egypt, which is interested in weakening Ethiopia and preventing it from becoming a regional leader after the opening of the Vozrozhdenie dam in September 2025.

So far, the situation is moving more and more actively towards an armed conflict, and the interaction of the parties is getting closer and closer to the exchange of ultimatums.

Despite the apparent preponderance of Ethiopia's military potential over Eritrea, the conflict will be even more devastating than the civil war in Tigray in 2021-2022, as it will involve a number of regional players in an armed confrontation.

If the parties can still avoid the outbreak of war, this will be the best possible scenario.

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Source: Telegram "AfroPouchkine"