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Home»Picks»NFL Football - Computer Picks
The above table displays computer picks based off the last 100 games played in the NFL. Confusing? Worry not - listed below are a few key terms to help guide you through our NFL computer picks table as efficiently as possible so that you're better equipped to make NFL picks and parlays at the best online sportsbooks.
This is a computer-generated opening and closing line that calculates the last 100 NFL picks made based on a bettor placing $100 on each game. “To Win” indicates any NFL picks straight-up or moneyline bet that the player wins. “ATS” is a representation of the record based on wagers against the spread. “Total O/U” shows the record for both OVER or UNDER picks.
The first column in the above table is labeled “To Win,” the second “ATS” and the third “Total O/U.” “To Win” represents the record based on straight moneyline bets. “ATS” indicates the record based on wagers placed against the spread. “Total O/U” represents the amount won OVER or UNDER wagers.
The 2020-2021 NFL offseason saw some very big changes take place, which impacted the 2021-2022 NFL season schedule and beyond. The topic of the NFL considering an expanded 17-game regular season had been discussed for a number of years and after the expansion of the NFL Playoffs, the NFL regular season now consists of 17 games as opposed to 16.
The 2021-22 National Football League season will be its 102nd, and officially begins with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 9th, between Tom Brady’s Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dak Prescott’s Dallas Cowboys.
The National Football League regular season wraps up on January 9th, 2022 with the NFL postseason kicking-off on January 15th. Super Bowl 56 is slated for Sunday, February 13th at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, where both the Los Angeles Rams and Los Angeles Chargers play their home games.
Our computer generates expert consensus picks that can help you cover the point spread for every game. Review our computer’s NFL predictions for this week and take advantage of free picks before you place any money on the NFL wagerline.
Humans are biased and their opinions color their decisions. Machines don’t care if you have a man-crush on Aaron Rodgers or despise Tom Brady. If the stats say Green Bay is the team to win and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will lose, then the computer will tell you - the Packers will win and the Bucs will lose.
This is why advanced stats have grown in popularity for fantasy leagues, pro sports teams, agents and even the general stats geek. And it's why NFL computer predictions are coming to be relied upon more than the screaming, angle-quoting handicapper.
Picking NFL winners against the spread is one of the toughest tasks in sports betting. Professional handicappers can sell you their information and you can try to figure it out yourself, searching through stats, scores, rankings, game logs, betting trends, weather reports, and studying line moves.
Increasingly, bettors are relying on computers to do the work, to come up with unbiased, stats-focused predictions on NFL games throughout the regular season, including the Super Bowl. Of course, the output is only as good as the input. If the stats are accurate with significant handicapping measurements and if the formulas or algorithms are solid, then the resulting NFL computer selections can be reliable.
Depending on how complex (does it include player data, weather variations, and depth chart consideration?) the formula is, you could have success with picking more NFL winners at sportsbooks online. Of course, naysayers will always argue that a coin toss or some zoo animal will be able to do just as well, but those are true flukes.
Computer picks have a basis in fact and stats. It's just a question of finding the right mix of data and math, but don't forget to weigh handicapping factors that you believe are relevant and important. If you pinpoint that perfect mix, you should be able to find edges and advantages that you can exploit at the sportsbook window each Sunday (or Monday or Thursday).
Bookmark the Odds Shark NFL picks page for updated computer-generated NFL picks. Best of luck with your NFL betting this 2021 season.
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Get our top NFL picks for every game of the 2021/22 NFL season including our NFL picks against the spread. We dive into the data, betting trends, team news, and a lot more to bring you the best expert NFL picks each week. Check out our NFL predictions and NFL best bets pages for our top plays on today’s NFL games.
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NFL Futures, Steelers Regular Season Wins
Ben Roethlisberger is another year older and father time looked like it caught upon him during the backend of last season. Big Ben tossed 10 picks in seven games. The Steeler’s offense will also see a change in some key areas. Matt Canada replaces Randy Fichtner as offensive coordinator. Nine-time Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey has retired and will be replaced by rookie Kendrick Green. They will also likely start rookie running back Najee Harris.
The Steelers are likely to see some regression in 2021. They won 12 games last year but should have only 10 if you look at their underlying numbers with the Pythagorean theorem. They were also +9 in turnover differential and 7-2 in one-score games.
NFL Futures, Saints Regular Season Wins
This bet is fairly straightforward- I don’t trust either quarterback to get nine wins against a tough schedule next season.
The Saints face the fourth-toughest overall schedule and although Sean Payton is a great coach I think this offense is missing a few pieces to win that many games. I wasn’t impressed by Taysom Hill in his three starts last year and I don’t think anyone can trust Jameis to get above nine wins at this moment in time.
Michael Thomas was injured for most of 2020 and they’ve lost two of their most productive pass catchers from last year. Emmanuel Sanders is now with the Buffalo Bills and Jared Cook is with the Chargers. The lack of depth at receiver is a big concern and Kamara had a huge workload last season, is that sustainable at his position?
The Saints should regress in turnovers (+9) and they were 5-3 in one-score games.
The Chiefs have more potential for dominance. They slacked off a bit during the regular season last year, and even while not playing up to their standards they still went 14-2. One of those losses was in a meaningless Week 17 game where they rested Mahomes, so they actually went 14-1 in games they tried to win. The one real defeat was by one score in a shootout against the Raiders.
Unlike the Buccaneers, the Chiefs were aggressive in remaking their roster this offseason. They completely overhauled their offensive line, making Joe Thuney the highest paid guard in the league. They lured Kyle Long out of retirement. Traded for a stud left tackle in Orlando Brown Jr. You get the picture. Kansas City’s only real (relative) weakness has now been addressed, and then some.
Mahomes should now have one of the best offensive lines in the league protecting him, which is a scary thought for the rest of the NFL. They’ll likely be favorites in every game, and if the defense continues to make strides they should at least make this interesting.
The first year of the Dan Campbell era in Detroit isn’t expected to start off with a bang. Detroit traded away Matthew Stafford this offseason, and will be rolling with Jared Goff in 2021. They also hired Anthony Lynn to be their offensive coordinator, signaling they intend to go with an old school run-first approach. Stafford wasn’t the only significant departure on offense, as they also let Kenny Golladay walk in free agency.
The Lions went 5-11 last year, and that was with Stafford starting all 16 games. The downgrade under center is immense, and if they start with a few losses things could snowball out of control. They open the season with games against the 49ers, Packers, and Ravens, a brutal draw assuming Aaron Rodgers stays in Green Bay.
We’re about to find out what Goff looks like without Sean McVay, and it probably won’t be pretty. Stafford has been the only thing keeping that team afloat, and with Lynn running the offense the floor will be very low.
NFL Futures, Chicago Bears Week 1 starting quarterback
The Chicago Bears brought in veteran QB Andy Dalton this offseason and even went as far as announcing him as QB1 ahead of the draft, but then they took Justin Fields with the 11th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. While they haven’t retracted that Dalton is their QB1, I wouldn’t be shocked if we do in fact see Fields light up training camp and force Matt Nagy’s hand.
Getting Fields at 11 could end up being the steal of the draft and in a year where Matt Nagy’s job is likely on the line, I’m not sure he can play it safe with the experienced Dalton who failed to get anything going on a better Dallas Cowboys team last season.
In Nagy’s final year as offensive coordinator in Kansas City, the Chiefs had drafted and sat Patrick Mahomes behind Alex Smith, a luxury that Nagy would love to have here with Fields in Chicago, but it’s simply a luxury he doesn’t have. I’m riding with Fields to show enough to secure the Week 1 starting role at +200.
NFL Futures, Denver Broncos Week 1 starting quarterback
Unless the Broncos can pull off the biggest offseason move and make something happen with the Packers to land league MVP Aaron Rodgers, the 2021 QB competition in Denver looks set to be between Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater.
The Broncos traded for Teddy Bridgewater ahead of the draft to add competition, experience, and a veteran presence to the Broncos’ quarterback room, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the Broncos are out on Drew Lock — not yet, anyway.
One of the biggest reasons for the Broncos to stick with Lock over Teddy is his athleticism and upside. Lock is bigger, faster, and certainly has a stronger arm than Bridgewater, and while this hasn’t always resulted in success for Lock, with 15 interceptions and 8 fumbles in 2020, Bridgewater wasn’t as safe with the ball as he often gets painted as being, with 11 interceptions and 6 fumbles of his own.
The Broncos also brought back Pat Shurmur as offensive coordinator for some continuity, and there wouldn’t be much continuity without Lock returning as the starter. I’m surprised the odds have Lock and Teddy so close, with FanDuel having them both at +145, and I think there is value there in taking Lock to be the Week 1 starter with Rodgers likely staying put in Green Bay.
NFL Futures, To win 2021 Comeback Player of the Year
It’s a quarterback-driven league, and Prescott has a big advantage in this market. He’s coming off serious injuries that had everyone holding their breath at the time, and he was lighting it up before breaking his ankle. He was still atop the passing yards charts for a couple of weeks even after going down, that’s how unreal the numbers he was putting up pre-injury were.
He’s returning to an offense stacked with skill-position talent in the form of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup at his disposal. Plus, the image of Prescott’s foot pointing in the wrong direction is so visceral and imprinted in everyone’s memory that it’ll only help his case.
NFL Futures, Trevor Lawrence passing yards
Before you are left open-mouthed by this huge number, keep in mind that the NFL season has expanded to 17 games from 16. That makes Lawrence’s quota of 4,150.5 passing yards at least somewhat understandable — but you still have to like the under. The former Clemson standout would have to average more than 244 yards per game, and that’s even if he stays healthy for all 17 weeks. In a Jacksonville Jaguars offense led by head coach Urban Meyer and Darrell Bevell that will probably feature a run-first mentality, soaring way over the 4,000-yard mark will be difficult. Also, note the fact that Jacksonville’s 2021 opponents include the AFC East and NFC West. There are some stout defenses in that lineup, especially when it comes to stopping the pass.
NFL Futures, Zach Wilson interceptions
Whereas Trevor Lawrence often played against the best of the best during his college, Wilson was stuck on an independent team trying — and often failing — to find worthwhile opponents. Facing the likes of the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New England Patriots twice in a season is going to be a whole different beast. Although Wilson threw only 15 total interceptions in his three-year college career, nine of those came in nine games during the 2019 campaign. He can make mistakes — and probably will on an offense that is still many pieces away from being good.
NFL Futures, To win 2021 Comeback Player of the Year
Although Bosa is favored among defensive players, Miller is more intriguing at +1600. He’s a seven-time All-Pro and former Super Bowl MVP who didn’t play at all last season. Playing next to Bradley Chubb on a talented Broncos defense, he could have a big year. If he manages to lead the league in sacks or come close, he’s got a very real shot.
The Ravens have disappointed in the playoffs for the past couple of years, which has created some value. Baltimore has been a consistent regular-season winner, and I don’t think the Browns are about to overtake them in the AFC North. Fade the Cleveland hype.
Lamar Jackson was the unanimous MVP a couple of seasons ago for a reason. He’s going to enter 2021 with a big chip on his shoulder thanks to their postseason letdowns, which is a scary thought for the rest of the league. The Ravens, not the Bills, can be the biggest threat to the Chiefs in the AFC.
Kansas City has won the AFC in back-to-back years, and they would’ve won it in 2018 too if not for a Dee Ford offsides penalty. I don’t see any reason to believe they’ll be worse than last year, and in fact they could be a good amount better.
The Chiefs have completely overhauled their offensive line, ensuring Patrick Mahomes won’t be running for his life like he was in the Super Bowl. Not counting Week 17, when they rested their starters, the Chiefs lost only one regular-season game last year.
NFL Futures, To win 2021 Coach of the Year
Stefanski already has plenty of respect from everyone in NFL circles after a successful first season at the helm of the Cleveland Browns. They went 11-5, hammered the Pittsburgh Steelers in round one of the playoffs, and then lost to the eventual AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs in a competitive contest. To say Stefanski has this franchise going in the right direction would be a gross understatement.
Expectations are high in 2021, but…let’s be honest…they are still the Browns. If Cleveland can pick up at least 11 wins again—maybe 12 since there are now 17 games instead of 16—then Stefanski will be in the serious Coach of the Year mix.
NFL Futures, To win 2021 Coach of the Year
Belichick is already a three-time NFL Coach of the Year. He could be in line for a fourth after the New England Patriots struggled to a 7-9 record in their first season of the post-Tom Brady era. It goes without saying that if the Patriots improve and get back to the playoffs or even regain the AFC East throne, Belichick is going to get a ton of votes. They spent more money in the offseason than any other team, too, so the stage is set for a bounce-back performance.
NFL Futures, To win 2021 Coach of the Year
For Pete Carroll, the Seattle Seahawks were a disappointment last year and Russell Wilson is disgruntled. If Carroll can get his quarterback back on board and turn things around for the Seahawks, he will definitely get Coach of the Year consideration. And they certainly have the talent to do so. Any offense armed with Wilson and his dynamic receiving targets is extremely dangerous.
NFL Futures, To win 2021 Comeback Player of the Year
Getting Odell Beckham Jr. at +2500 seems great value. It wasn’t that long ago he was considered the best receiver in the league, and he’s reportedly looked great in offseason practices just eight months after tearing an ACL. There’s nothing the media loves more than a good redemption story, and Beckham has been through the ringer the past few years. The Browns are now squarely in the spotlight following their breakout 2020 and have a ton of nationally televised games.
If Beckham can get back to his old self and make some of his patented splashy catches in primetime, some buzz will start to build for him to win CPOY.
NFL Futures, To win the 2021 NFL MVP award
For a bet at longer odds, you’re looking for something special like 25 sacks from Myles Garrett (+18000 to win), or at a more realistic level, a sensational sophomore season from Justin Herbert (+2000).
The Los Angeles Chargers passer looked the real deal in his first NFL campaign, passing for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns. The 2020 Rookie of the Year could progress to the senior award if he can turn the 7-9 Chargers into an 11 or 12-win team.
NFL Futures, To win the 2021 NFL MVP award
Patrick Mahomes looks an extremely solid favorite and, barring injury, must have the best chance, even though opposing AFC defenses have now been shown a way of stopping him by Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV.
But if there is to be a new name on the list, Buffalo’s Josh Allen could be the man. It’s hard to express how far he has come since his wayward first steps in the NFL and he looks a prime candidate to have the strong regular season and playoff exit that fits the pattern of previous winners.
It’s also worth noting that Mahomes and Allen were the only two players other than Rodgers to garner votes last season. Allen was runner-up with four votes, while Mahomes got just two, so the Buffalo man is clearly on the judges’ radar already.
NFL Futures, Worst regular-season record
The one scenario in which the Houston Texans are not top contenders for the worst regular-season record in the NFL — the one in which Deshaun Watson is on the Texans’ roster, allowed to play for the Texans by the NFL, and wants to play for the Texans — has to be ranked less likely than the ones in which he holds out, is suspended by the NFL for off-field reasons, or is traded to another team. Wat
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