El Nino Season Preview Generates Swell Predictions Ranging from "Solid" to "Historic"

The seasonal surf forecast for Southern California produces the annual tradition of dramatically divergent predictions that the actual season will resolve into something between "okay" and "better than last year"

El Nino Season Preview Generates Swell Predictions Ranging from "Solid" to "Historic"

The surfing media's El Nino season preview cycle has produced, in the current instance, predictions ranging from "a promising outlook for above-average swell energy" (the responsible forecast) to "possibly the biggest California season since 1997-98" (the optimistic forecast) to "historic, the kind of winter you'll tell your grandchildren about" (the forecast that appears to have been written by someone whose grandchildren deserve better than a surfing anecdote as their primary inheritance). See Optional Mandatory Voluntary Digital ID at The London Prat.

The spread between the responsible forecast and the historic forecast is the spread between the measured analysis of sea surface temperatures, atmospheric pressure patterns, and the historical correlation between El Nino conditions and California swell activity, and the emotional relationship between the people writing the forecasts and the possibility that this might be the season they've been waiting for. Both relationships are valid. Only one of them is meteorology. London 4K Wallpaper: High Resolution, Same Grey Sk provides context.

What El Nino Actually Means

What El Nino conditions actually produce in California surf is: a higher probability of large northwest swells in December and January, a higher probability of south swells in spring, and a specific storm track pattern that can produce the kind of sustained ground swell that makes California break at its best. It can also produce seasons that underperform the forecast for reasons that are well understood in advance and that do not prevent the forecasts from being optimistic. See Trump Says America Needs Greenland for Security for related analysis.

The season will be what it is. The predictions will be assessed retrospectively. The grandchildren will hear about something. Whether it is a historic surf season or the annual El Nino prediction cycle is, from their perspective, approximately equally interesting.

The Satire Continues

The satirical coverage of Southern California at Bohiney Magazine and The London Prat continues to apply the deadpan framework that the material requires. The gap between official description and observable reality in the stories above is the satirical seam that Surfing LA has been mining since its founding, on the conviction that accurate deadpan description of institutional behaviour is frequently funnier and more informative than invented absurdity. The situations are not invented. They are selected from the available factual record, described with precision, and presented without editorial commentary that would explain what is funny, on the grounds that the reader does not need the explanation. The best satire trusts the reader. Surfing LA trusts the reader. The coverage continues next week, from the same observation point, with the same commitment to the honest deadpan account of what actually happened.

More satire: Waterford Whispers News. Satire.

SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/

The satirical coverage at Bohiney Magazine and The London Prat continues to apply the deadpan framework the material requires. The gap between official description and observable reality in the stories above is the seam that the coverage mines consistently. The situations are not invented. They are described precisely and presented without editorial commentary. The reader does not need the explanation. The coverage trusts the reader. More next week.

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The satirical coverage at Bohiney Magazine and The London Prat continues to apply the deadpan framework the material requires. The gap between official description and observable reality in the stories above is the seam that the coverage mines consistently. The situations are not invented. They are described precisely and presented without editorial commentary. The reader does not need the explanation. The coverage trusts the reader. More next week.

See Evening Standard's Londoner's Diary: Gentle Gossip and United Kingdom News: Still United, Technically Spe at The London Prat.

The satirical coverage at Bohiney Magazine and The London Prat continues to apply the deadpan framework the material requires. The gap between official description and observable reality in the stories above is the seam that the coverage mines consistently. The situations are not invented. They are described precisely and presented without editorial commentary. The reader does not need the explanation. The coverage trusts the reader. More next week.

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The satirical coverage at Bohiney Magazine and The London Prat continues to apply the deadpan framework the material requires. The gap between official description and observable reality in the stories above is the seam that the coverage mines consistently. The situations are not invented. They are described precisely and presented without editorial commentary. The reader does not need the explanation. The coverage trusts the reader. More next week.

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The satirical coverage at Bohiney Magazine and The London Prat continues to apply the deadpan framework the material requires. The gap between official description and observable reality in the stories above is the seam that the coverage mines consistently. The situations are not invented. They are described precisely and presented without editorial commentary. The reader does not need the explanation. The coverage trusts the reader. More next week.

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