Duke Vs Kentucky Point Spread

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ATLANTA, GA (ATS Consultants) - These teams have not played since 2001. Kentucky was tested by Maryland in their opener at Brooklyn, winning, 72-69, but failing to cover the 10.5. Duke won their home opener against Georgia State on Friday, 74-55, also failing to cover (19.5). Duke faces Kentucky from the Georgia Dome at 9:30pm in the Star Farm Champions Classic.
ODDS: Oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv have installed Duke as a 3.5-point favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The total is 140 in most books.
LINE MOVEMENT: The Blue Devils opened as a 1-point favorite and moved to 3.5 in most books. The total opened at 139.5 and moved to 140 in most books.
NCAA FREE PICK: Take Duke. According to the latest college basketball trends, the Wildcats are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss, 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games and are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. Atlantic Coast. Both teams have talent and tradition. Experience is a big factor and showed on Friday night when Kentucky nearly fell to Maryland andgave up 26 offensive rebounds. Duke will have that edge led by seniors Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly. Plumlee had 19 points and 14 rebounds against Georgia State in their opener. The Wildcats' inexperienced frontcourt, anchored by freshman center Nerlens Noel, was outrebounded 54-38 in the opener. It also appears that Kentucky starting guard Ryan Harrow will not play due to the flu. That means former walk-on Jarrod Polson will likely make his first start against a talented backcourt led by Seth Curry, Rasheed Sulaimon and Quinn Cook. Duke's experience up front will help lead them to the neutral court cover.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICK: DUKE BLUE DEVILS -3.5
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NCAA Historical Final Four & Championship Game Betting Lines
I have gone back in history and dug up the scores from previous Final Four & NCAA Championship games. The information you will find in the tables below stems back to 1985, which is when the NCAA Tournament was expanded to 64 teams.
I was only able to find the lines for all Final Four games dating back to 2003. I was able to find all of the lines for the NCAA Championship Game since 1985. I’ll make a couple of notes about what I have found that will hopefully help you handicap not only this year’s Final Four, but the Final Four in years to come.
Unfortunately there was no NCAA Tournament, and therefore no Final Four or Championship game, in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Texas Tech (3) vs. Michigan State (2)
Michigan (3) vs. Loyola-Chicago (11)
North Carolina (1) vs. Syracuse (10)
Michigan St. (2) vs. Connecticut (1)
N. Carolina (1) vs. Michigan St (5)
Mississippi St (5) vs. Syracuse (4)
Memphis State (2) vs. Villanova (8)
Villanova (2) vs. North Carolina (1)
Michigan St (2) vs. N. Carolina (1)
There haven’t been many upsets in the Final Four in recent years. In fact, the favorite has won 14 of the last 18 meetings since 2010. However, the underdog has been a very good bet in recent seasons. UConn pulled off one of the biggest upsets in tournament history in 2014 year with a 63-53 win as 7-point underdogs to Florida, and in 2015 Wisconsin beat an undefeated Kentucky team.
Oddsmakers have expected close games in the Final Four. That’s indicated by the fact that only six teams have been underdogs of 7 or more points since 2003.
Favorites in the NCAA Championship Game have been a good bet historically, however, the underdog has won against the spread in three of the last six years.
There have been some huge upsets in the history of the NCAA Championship Game. The biggest of them all was Connecticut beating Duke 77-74 as 9.5-point underdogs back in 1999. Kansas won as an 8-point underdog to Oklahoma 83-79 in 1988, while No. 8 Villanova defeated No. 1 Georgetown 66-64 as 8-point dogs in 1985. Arizona won as a 7-point underdog to Kentucky in overtime by a final of 84-79 in 1997 as the fourth-biggest upset in history.
There were a lot bigger point spreads dating back further in the Championship Game than there are now. From 1985 to 1999, there were four instances where one team was favored by at least 8 points, with the biggest being Kentucky (-14) over Syracuse in 1996. Since 2000, there hasn’t been one instance where a team was favored by more than 7.5 points. That just goes to show the parity in college basketball these days compared to before the turn of the century.

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