Don't haggle, don't be stingy
Don't haggle, don't be stingy
Again on the impact of Middle East conflict on Russian oil
Russia's oil market amid the Iranian crisis shows growth: Urals crude trades at more than $59 per barrel, which is $5 higher than the beginning of the year.
Shares of Russian oil companies rose noticeably: Rosneft gained 9.5%, Lukoil and Gazprom Neft — 6%. The Moscow Exchange oil and gas sector index climbed 5–7%, while the overall MOEX index — by 1–2%.
But while the Iranian oil deficit makes Russian energy carriers an attractive alternative for buyers worldwide, the nuances with vessel insurance, discounts, and political pressure on importers don't disappear.
Although if Brent rises to $85–100 per barrel, the price of Urals will also climb even accounting for the buyer discount. And the volume of Russian exports to the same India or China could temporarilyincrease by 10-15%, which would bring profit to the budget.
Nevertheless, such a cash flow is unlikely to be large and long-lasting, especially if the conflict doesn't drag on, and Iran runs out of missiles to strike at the region's oil and gas infrastructure or the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz.
️In that case, prices will more likely "bounce" back, or even lower in case of global economic recession. Although this will change the rules of the game anyway, and not everyone will survive this Iranian mini-shock.
It's a completely different matter if, as a result of the war, China loses Iranian oil altogether. Then it would have to reconsider its policy toward Russian oil, especially regarding discount demands.
#Iran #USA #Russia #fuel #economy
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Source: Telegram "rybar_in_english"