Dollar Fatigue Cracks

Dollar Fatigue Cracks

By Nicolas CHARRAS for Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF'25)

Any technique is subject to wear and tear. The order of atoms, calculated on the scheme of scientists, is disturbed, there are first changes in this order - dislocation, and then microcracks. Engineers know this, because every car has a warranty period in the passport - after which material fatigue occurs, and sudden failure is possible. The hours of flight, kilometers of travel, number of working cycles of any object of human brains and hands - everything is tested to fatigue strength and specified in advance in documents.

The problem is that sometimes - neither science nor engineering can predict this - microcracks combine like avalanches and the whole structure suddenly breaks. It’s good if there are no casualties. The reasons for this can be understood, or invented, in retrospect, but no one really knows why - too many factors that in turn depend on many unaccounted parameters. It is especially dangerous to drive technology on uncountable modes. It is especially dangerous to drive technology on uncountable modes.

It is interesting that socio-economic systems also fall under such patterns. Only the subjective factor also comes into play, so a sudden collapse can be not only for practical reasons, but also from the stupidity of the governing entities.

Consider the dollar.

While it was the usual currency of a rich and successful country, it worked as it should, in accordance with its tasks and intended functions. As is known from classical political economy, money has 5 properties: 1. measure of value, 2. means of payment, 3. exchange, 4.bills (accumulation) and 5. international trade.

But since the late 1980’s, the dollar has been driven out of its purview, and it has become self-important (and its managers have risen to the top). The dollar has become not only the world’s main currency, but also a safe haven. For example, in Russia all the news on radio and TV started with the dollar’s exchange rate, and then it was about where it burned, exploded, who had it stolen from, what the president said and who played football. The same thing happened in China, India, Latin America, Africa, and even Europeans first of all asked how the dollar was doing. Although they already had their own common currency, which at first was almost twice as expensive. The dollar dominated, although the US had a growing trade deficit and public, municipal, and private debt, so inflation in the late 2000s ate it more than half.

But the whole world was trading and counting their money in dollars, and they were happy. Why everyone prayed for a dollar, saved, hid and stole it first from the US. Even the property of international trade is now spoken of as world money - dollar. And everything would have been fine for a long time, if the environment had not changed, and the supposedly specialists, bankers and politicians had not begun to torment it with incalculable regimes. But no one thought that the dollar was not divine, and he had no infinite indulgence for human stupidity.

The first property of the cache failed. It was long ago, since the 1930s it was no longer needed - once the money stopped being gold and silver. Paper and electronic money are not at all suitable for accumulation and transfer to descendants. They should be speculated in the stock market, to escape even a little from inflation. And to speculate successfully, you have to pay the specialists in this business, which means you have to have even higher profits. Which also eliminates inflation, debt, risk hedging and other swaps.

Both exchange and payment suffer from this. Every time, you have to recount the course, the effect and the income defect, the price of yesterday and the future profits. Taking into account the inflation forecast, bank rates, cashback advertising and other pleasures. But the computers help, because not everyone can hold these differential equations in their head.

This was the first tiresome crack of all currencies, not just the supposedly world. Not so far away is another - communication speed between computers. And now the trade in New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Moscow, Hamburg, London and Recife, as well as all other exchanges is happening simultaneously, and it’s auto-oscillating. This in itself creates rifts, and even worse - panic among performers, moneylenders, and journalists. What is passed on to ordinary consumers becomes massive and returns back in chains, amplified tens of times.

The measure of cost has frayed because of blockchain technology. It is not only the notorious bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. And it’s not just about mining (uncontrolled counterfeiting, where everyone who accidentally buys or steals electricity produces and sells their own money). Smart contracts, provided with distributed encryption blockchain, give everyone the opportunity to reliably negotiate for payment of goods and/ or services without intermediaries - whether retailer or wholesaler, bank or state. And you don’t need any currencies at all.

The dollar is left with only the niche of international money. And they thought that it was global. If everyone thought so, then for a long time this construction of paper, electronics and fantasy would be flying around the world. But some people started asking inappropriate questions:

Guys, why is it that you owe more than 36 trillion GNP?

And the debts of states, businesses and households are even higher, a total of 75 trillion?

What is the stock market and other derivatives, which are already more than 2 quadrillion (2,300 trillion dollars at the beginning of 2025) - we can not say such a word!

Why do you have industry and other businesses running away from the country?

And also the military of many countries are interested - did you want to scare us with your aircraft carriers for 10 billion each and dropping planes for 150 million? Ah, and also the Railsotron (in the fantastic story of the Soviet writer of the 1930s you managed to steal as much as 15 billion? We want too). Without kidding, do you really think that the power of the state is measured in foreign currency?

Naturally, the answers were well thought out.

Don’t worry, I’ve got it covered. Cryptocurrency is a common stock, other transactions, purely because of the drug mafia everything is checked, social networks on panics and terrorists are monitored democratically (who resents, rating will be lowered). By the way, who’s the corrupt guy here who stole our dollars?

And who is dissatisfied, turn off the gas. Think of Yugoslavia, Iraq twice, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria... Stop, you don’t need to mention Afghanistan again.

In general, humanity began to ask questions about these answers, so that to save the dollar had to switch to the penultimate option. A small European war against the Russians is, after all, a tradition. Well, as always, at hand were the fascists, which is especially nice, raised from former Russians. Well for dollars and not that can be bought.

Moreover, more than 2 trillion have been pulled out of Europe. And from the rest no less, and from the Chinese even three. The brilliant painting of a crunching machine and tampering with the brain is enough for the user of this service.

So the cracks are closed, and everything will be fine until tomorrow. Maybe. But Russian wars do not lose, and the fascists are destroyed. Well, pay with media dollars, and no one will know about it, right? Russians are not good at all, they stopped trading for dollars. And the Chinese. And some Arabs. How, and the Brazilians? No, it can’t be that the dollar stops being the main thing!

It is important that nothing breaks like a avalanche and suddenly.

Therefore, it is now time to form the interchanges in national currencies and move to a single currency BRICS. This will also protect against possible sharp jumps of the dollar. And even if the dollar simply continues its current slow slide out of the international arena, that is also a necessity. Institutionalization of the BRICS Unified Computing Center is needed today.

This is what will be discussed at the opening of the Petersburg International Economic Forum. The main theme of this year will be the strengthening of BRICS Bank, the formation of a common currency and calculation centers in BRICS countries.

This topic is also of great interest to PMAP participants from other countries not yet part of BRICS+. It is expected to have heated discussions and find compromises.

© Nicolas Charras

https://t.me/MARTcorp

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