Do Russians want war?
Do Russians want war?
We’ve got an answer. It’s complex, bitter, but more optimistic than dry data shows.
We surveyed a representative sample of 1807 Russians and our partner Tazeros analyzed 2,73 mln Russian posts in social networks.
Key findings
- Bad news: 59% answer “Yes” to the question “Do you support war in Ukraine”.
- Good news: They support an illusion created by propaganda (more on that further). They don’t feel hostility towards Ukrainians (only 2,4% posts contain hostility, 30,4% contain sympathy).
- The poll showed, that 73% of those who support the war trust official Russian sources.
What does this mean?
When we say “war” we see destroyed residential areas, they see Ukrainians waiting to be liberated from nazi government, no civilian losses, small army losses.
This hypothesis is reinforced by analysis of 2,73 mln Russian posts in social networks. Dominating emotion is sympathy towards Ukrainians (30,4% of posts). Only 2,4% of posts contain hostility towards them.
14,5% Russian posts contain personal insults towards Putin.
What are Russian official sources saying about the war?
Take a look at our web-site. And imagine that almost any link you click, any channel you turn on shows this. Free media are effectively banned, their web-sites are blocked. Twitter, Facebook, TikTok are blocked in Russia as well.
That’s what Lev Gershenson, ex-chief of Yandex.News, says about this:
“On Yandex home page 30 million Russians see that there is no war, there are no thousands of dead Russian soldiers, no dozens of civilians killed by the Russian bombardments, no dozens of war prisoners, no immense destruction in the Ukrainian cities. The fact that a significant part of Russian citizens may believe that there is no war at all is the basis and the engine of this war”.
So what we see is not actually a support of all-out war, and most Russians are neither nazis nor bloodthirsty beasts. Those who support war, are mostly deceived by propaganda.
That’s why government imposed a law that can get you in prison for 15 years for saying truth.
Also you should take into account that in dictatorships people are prone to give acceptable answers to polls. Especially after government imposed a law that threatens you with up to 15 years in prison for expressing anti-war position.
So actual support of the war is lower.
And you should consider Rally 'round the flag effect, which temporarily increases public support of authorities in times of crises, even if authorities are wrong. We'll see how long it lasts.
Other interesting findings
- Key driver of support for the war are males of 55 years and older
- Key driver of anti-war stance are Russians of 18-29 years.
So we see once again a conflict of “fathers”, who are prone to propaganda and traumatized by fall of USSR, and “children”, who want to live in peace, friendship and prosperity.
Older generation (mainly people in power) is literally burying our future.
Notable quotations
Woman, 86 years, lives in a village: “Ukraine, Russia — we are the same. No, no need for military action. We wants not a war. No, no, no, no. I want peace. My daughter-in-law is Ukrainian, [we are] like one family”
Woman, 64 years, lives in a city: “Of course we don't want war. We know what war is. I've been through 2 wars. I don't wish anyone the same. How can anyone support a war, young lady? I want peace on Earth, I want my grandkids and kids to live. No, surely not”
This one hurts, but is representative of the porridge in heads of many Russians:
Woman, 70 years, lives in a village: "I am of the generation who worked with the Ukrainians, I respect them very much. We danced to Ukrainian dances, [sang] Ukrainian songs, I think highly of Ukraine. Very highly. Believe it or not, nobody in Ukraine did me anything wrong. I pity our kids who are fighting now, the kids from both sides. My grandson is 20, my son is 43, I am so very much afraid that they might get drafted if a war starts.
And the Ukrainian nation has done nothing wrong. So I like them very much. [The interviewer inquires if she supports the ongoing military action or not] Of course I do. Let them kick the Maidaners out! Let the real Ukrainians live! The Ukrainian nation that we love, love, love. We do indeed. There is no such thing as a bad nation, only bad people. Let the government decide whether or not to support... It's not for me to answer. I say, I am against wars. Against. From any side."
Data
We publish maximum data on what we do so that you can check everything yourself.
- Methods and data array (spss) of our poll are published here: https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1
- Dashboard with social networks analysis is published here: http://tzr.ai/ukraine2022
2 words about us
We're a team of independent researchers, sociologists and analysts. Our goal is to provide honest, professional and data-based explanation of Russian public opinion regarding the war.
I am Aleksei Miniailo, Russian politician. In 2019 I've spent 2 months in jail for opposing Putin’s regime. For many years I've been building bridges between charities and corporations, organized civil projects and studied at IEDC Bled School of Management. My father is from Ukraine, I've got relatives there.
Please share our research, give us feedback, ask questions.
And remember that Russia ≠ Putin.
Many Russians don’t want war, more than 13 800 persons have been detained, arrested, beaten and even tortured (no kidding) for anti-war position.