Divisional Playoff Point Spreads
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Divisional Playoff Point Spreads
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The wild-card round of the 2022 NFL playoffs wasn't quite as wild as some may have expected. The 49ers pulled off an upset of the Cowboys, but aside from that, most of the favorites were able to win handily and cover in the process. Now, bettors will look to see if that continues as the lines tighten up in the divisional round.
As the 14-team playoff field thins to eight, there will be no more double-digit underdogs, barring some unexpected quarterback injury or COVID outbreak. Most of the point spreads will stay within one possession, and that will make every half-point line move that much more consequential.
This is the time of year to keep a laser-sharp focus on the betting lines and odds while examining as many trends as you can about the playoff field. This is the time to take advantage of the plethora of previous results that these teams have racked up, as their season-long trends can certainly tell gamblers something as they prepare to bet these critical contests.
Injuries will always be consequential as well. The offensive players get all the love, and Derrick Henry will be the big name to watch this week, but don't forget to look at defensive injuries as well. The Bengals are dealing with a lot of defensive line problems while the 49ers' two best defensive players suffered injuries against the Cowboys and may be questionable for their matchup against the Packers. Simply put, just read the injury report daily and react accordingly as more news comes out about their respective statuses.
For more expert NFL predictions, check out Sporting News' picks straight up and against the spread for the NFL's divisional round.
Below are the latest NFL odds for the divisional round, including point spreads, money lines and over-under totals for every game, according to FanDuel Sportsbook .
Betting against Tom Brady is never an easy thing to do, but if ever there was a spot to do it, this is the one.
The Buccaneers are missing a lot of key offensive personnel for this game. The absences of Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown will draw most of the attention, as the Bucs will be relying more heavily on Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski, but the biggest potential absence is that of Tristan Wirfs.
Wirfs suffered an ankle injury in Tampa Bay's wild-card win over the Eagles. He limped off the field and into the locker room early in the contest. He attempted to return but was unable to do so.
Wirfs is the Buccaneers' best offensive lineman and doesn't allow much pressure on Tom Brady. That has been critical in helping Tampa Bay win this season, as the Buccaneers posted a record of just 1-3 in games where Brady was sacked three-plus times. And their lone win came against the Falcons in a game that was close before Matt Ryan imploded late, as Atlanta allowed 20 points in the final quarter and scored none.
Granted, the Bucs just crushed the Eagles by 16 with Wirfs sitting most of the game and Brady getting sacked four times. That said, the Rams are a better-rounded team than the Eagles. Matthew Stafford is a better quarterback than Jalen Hurts and should be able to score earlier in the game than Philly did (the Eagles went scoreless until the fourth quarter).
More importantly, Los Angeles' defense is well-suited to match up with the Buccaneers as it's currently constructed. Von Miller and Leonard Floyd can take advantage of Wirfs' potential absence and get pressure on Brady. Aaron Donald will come after Brady up the middle, something that the veteran quarterback hates dealing with. And Jalen Ramsey can help to take away, or at least limit, Mike Evans.
With all that said, if Wirfs can't play, the fading the Bucs seems like the right move. Could they win the game? Sure. They should still be favored even if Wirfs is out. But would it be surprising to see them lose, or play a close game against a playoff team? That's a question worth asking.
The underdogs are getting more than three points here, so that makes this appealing. This contest has the feel of one that will be decided by a point or twol, so rolling with the Rams makes sense as they are both good values.
What's the No. 1 thing you want to avoid when playing the Titans? You can't let them run the ball at will. Tennessee may well have a chance to do that because of the key injuries that the Bengals are dealing with on their defensive line.
Cincinnati lost numerous defensive linemen during their seven-point win over the Raiders. Starting defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi suffered a foot injury and has been ruled out for the season. Backup tackle Mike Daniels suffered a groin injury that will likely cause him to miss the rest of the season as well.
Worst of all, star defensive end Trey Hendrickson is in concussion protocol. He could recover within the week and return to action, but if he doesn't, the Bengals are going to be significantly shorthanded up front, especially at defensive tackle, as top backup Josh Tupou is also dealing with an injury.
The Titans can absolutely take advantage of those defensive absences. Their offensive line is shaky in pass protection but is among the best run-blocking units in the NFL, with right tackle David Quessenberry owning the fifth-best run-blocking grade among offensive tackles, per PFF . So, the Titans are going to be positioned to get a lot of push against the Bengals, dominate the line of scrimmage and control the clock with their running game.
That will be especially true if Derrick Henry is able to return to action this week. Henry opened his practice window last Wednesday and has a legitimate shot to play for the first time since he suffered a foot injury against the Colts back in Week 8. He would feast against the banged-up Bengals defensive line.
The Bengals have a nice matchup with their receiving corps against the Titans' middling cornerback group, but we saw the Raiders limit the Bengals in the red-zone last week to keep the game close. If the Titans' defense can pressure Burrow and force some three-and-outs, it may prove difficult for the Bengals offense to get into much of a rhythm.
This is not a favorable line with which to bet the underdog, but the Bills are a great matchup for the Chiefs in this spot. They play the type of defense that can give Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes plenty of trouble, and their offense should do enough to keep pace with them if this becomes a shootout.
That said, this is all about the Bills' defense. They were the best stop-unit in the NFL during the regular season and led the league in yards allowed and points allowed. When they played the Chiefs early in the season, they held Kansas City to just 20 total points.
The Chiefs have certainly changed since that point, but one thing hasn't. The Bills' ability to get pressure without having to blitz. Buffalo leads the NFL in pressure rate, getting pressure on 30.8 percent of opponent dropbacks. That said, the Bills blitz just 26 percent of the time, good for the 13th-highest rate in the NFL.
What does that mean? The Bills are able to get pressure on quarterbacks consistently with just four pass rushers. That means they can play seven players in coverage, and that's something that Mahomes has struggled against. If you can take away the big play and get pressure on Mahomes, he tends to be significantly less accurate.
Mahomes' completion percentage under pressure in general is just 41.8 percent while his turnover-worthy play percentage is 4.8 under pressure. However, when blitzed, he completes 71.3 percent of his passes with a 0.8 turnover-worthy play percentage. So, in essence, you need to pressure Mahomes to slow the Chiefs' offense down. But you can't do it at the expense of one of the players you have in coverage. Otherwise, he'll tear you apart.
It's never fun betting against a top-tier quarterback like Mahomes, but he is playing another top-five NFL quarterback in Josh Allen. The Bills scored on each of their possessions against the Patriots last week, too, and while they may not be that efficient against a strong Kansas City stop unit, they can definitely do enough to cover this spread.
It would be nice to get a +3 here, as we would at least push if this is decided by a field goal, but the Bills could win this outright, so getting them as 2.5-point underdogs is a solid move. BetQL agrees with us. Their model rates this as a five-star bet as they believe the Chiefs should be favored by just 1.5 points. That's a whole point of line value, so we'll happily snap that up.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
FILE - Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers looks to throw during the first half of an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts in Indianapolis, in this Sunday, Nov. 22, 2020, file photo. Rogers was selected Friday, Jan. 8, 2021, for The Associated Press NFL All-Pro Team. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy, File)
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by John Perrotto
in
NFL Football
The matchups are set for the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs.
In the NFC, the top-seeded Green Bay Packers will host the sixth-seeded Los Angeles Rams on Saturday while the fifth-seeded Tampa Bay Buccaneers will visit the second-seeded New Orleans Saints on Sunday night.
In the AFC, the second-seeded Buffalo Bills will host the fifth-seeded Baltimore Ravens on Saturday night and the sixth-seeded Cleveland Browns will travel to the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.
Here are the opening lines for those games in the latest NFL odds.
Not surprisingly, the Packers are the bigger favorite in the two NFC games at seven points. The Packers went 13-3 in the regular season while the Rams had a 10-6 record.
The Rams notched a 30-20 road win over the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday in a wild card game, pulling the upset as three-point underdogs. Rookie Cam Akers rushed for 131 yards a touchdown to lead the Rams.
Went WILD in his first playoff appearance!
The best @thereal_cam3 plays from his 176-yard performance! 👏 pic.twitter.com/wv9vRi7Z0m
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 10, 2021
The top defense in the NFL slowed down the Seahawks’ offense, the highlight being Darious Williams intercepting Russell Wilson and returning it 42 yards for a touchdown.
The Packers and Rams last met in 2018. The Rams won 29-27 as 7.5-point home favorites.
The Saints (13-4) opened as a three-point favorites over the Buccaneers (12-5) after sweeping Tampa Bay in the regular season.
Tom Brady had a fine playoff debut for the Buccaneers in their 31-23 win at Washington in a wild card game on Saturday night. He threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns in his 42nd postseason start. The Buccaneers did not cover as 10-point favorites.
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) January 10, 2021
This was the 43-year-old Brady’s first playoff game with a team other than the New England Patriots. He showed he still has arm strength as his 36-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Brown was his longest scoring throw in the postseason since 2011.
The Saints advanced with a 21-9 victory over the visiting Chicago Bears in a wild card game Sunday as 11-point favorites. Drew Brees, who turns 42 this week, completed 28 of 39 passes for 265 with touchdowns to Michael Thomas and Latavius Murray.
Alvin Kamara rushed for 99 yards and a TD. He missed last week’s regular-season finale and did not practice in advance of facing the Bears after testing positive for COVID-19.
Kamara slimes his way for the TD! ⚜️
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) January 11, 2021
The Saints and Buccaneers met twice during the regular season in NFC South matchups with New Orleans winning both – 34-23 in Week 1 at home as a four-point favorite and 38-3 in Week 9 at Tampa as a three-point underdog.
This game has the higher total of the NFC games at 49.5.
The Bills are three-point favorites over the Colts with a 49.5-point total.
The Bills (14-3) earned their first playoff win in 25 years Saturday when they beat the Indianapolis Colts 27-24 at home in their Wild Card game, though Buffalo did not cover the seven-point spread.
Josh Allen threw for two touchdowns and ran for another. He passed for 324 yards, connecting on scoring strikes of five yards to Dawson Knox and 35 yards to Stefon Diggs.
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 11, 2021
The Ravens (12-5) beat the Tennessee Titans 20-13 on the road on Sunday in a wild card game as 3.5-point favorites.
Lamar Jackson rushed for 136 yards, including a 48-yard touchdown, and threw for 179 as the Ravens rallied from 10 points down.
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 10, 2021
The Ravens also held the Titans to the lowest point total of the season while shutting down Derrick Henry. The NFL’s leading rusher was held to 40 yards on 18 carries.
The teams did not meet this season, but the Ravens earned a 24-17 win over the Bills in 2019 in Baltimore.
Though the Browns knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers 48-37 as five-point road underdogs on Sunday night in an AFC Wild Card game for their first playoff in 26 years, they are 10-point dogs against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs in Kansas City.
Baker Mayfield threw for 263 yards and three touchdowns, including a 40-yard score to Nick Chubb on a screen pass. The Browns also intercepted Ben Roethlisberger four times.
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) January 11, 2021
The 55.5-point total is the highest of the four division round games.
The teams last played in 2018 with the Chiefs winning 37-21 in Cleveland as 7.5-point favorites.
Though the Packers are the top seed, the seven-point line seems a tad high. If bettors do believe defense does indeed still win championships, then money is likely to go the Rams’ way and the spread will go down a bit.
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 10, 2021
The three-point spread in the Bills-Ravens game could also shrink as various power rankings have Baltimore higher than Buffalo.
Meanwhile, the Saints-Buccaneers and Chiefs-Browns lines seem pretty much on the mark.
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
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