Dissecting 7 NCAA College Football Betting Myths

Dissecting 7 NCAA College Football Betting Myths


Dissecting 7 NCAA College Football Betting Myths

NCAA Football Betting Myths

Sports betting is overflowing with tales and legends.

School football is a well known and moderately free wagering market. Normally, fantasies and legends about school football 맥스벳 wagering proliferate.

We should investigate 7 of the most well-known school football wagering fantasies.

Legend #1. Continuously Back Home Dogs ATS

You can't routinely bring in cash moving all home dark horses in school football. That doesn't mean sponsorship home canines ATS doesn't seem OK. In the right setting, it's the best play.


In the 2020 ordinary season, there were 219 D1 school football match-ups highlighting a dark horse playing at home. The home canine shrouded the spread in 107 of those games, or around 48.8% of the time. That implies aimlessly backing all home dark horses ATS could never have been a beneficial system that season. Does this track across all seasons?

In 2019, there were 277 games including home canines, and they did somewhat more awful than in 2020, winning just around 47.2% of the time by and large. 38 groups beat the spread as home canines frequently enough to be productive, including a crazy 4-0 exhibition by Colorado ATS as home canine.

If it's not too much trouble, NOTE:

Assuming that you might have recognized Colorado as liable to be underestimated at home toward the start of the year, you might have had a decent profit from venture. The Buffaloes completed the year 5-7, meaning practically every one of their successes came in that notorious home canine setting.

During the 2020 season, there were 42 groups who beat the spread as home canines, frequently enough to deliver a productive wagering system - in the event that you'd had the option to recognize them early. 8 of those groups - Wake Forest, Memphis, Wyoming, Nevada, NC State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, and Indiana - were undefeated ATS as home canines across numerous games.


Not a single one of them are the best group in their meeting, not even one of them are in immense TV markets, and not even one of them address customary stalwart football programs, beside Indiana, however the times of Hoosier football strength have since a long time ago elapsed.

From this dataset, it seems like you could construct a respectable methodology of moving home dark horses against the spread in little business sectors. Georgia Southern was 3-0 ATS as a home canine, averaging multiple focuses per beat. Assuming I were keen on home canine wagering, I'd investigate Georgia Southern and different schools in that equivalent setting.

Fantasy #2. School Football Teams Bounce Back after Losses

This is a fantasy that is practically exact to the point of being pronounced valid.

The brain research behind this one holds that youngsters with creating minds will quite often respond to a misfortune by overperforming in their next excursion. There's likewise a component of "the other group will look past a rival on a losing streak" to it.


Starting around 2011, 55 D1 NCAA 슈어벳 football crews have won reliably enough after a misfortune to deliver a productive wagering circumstance. That is 44% of the association. In any case, that likewise implies that most of the association - 56% - doesn't return after a misfortune reliably enough to make money.

Truth be told, a few schools lose regularly enough after a misfortune to propose that there's a substitute legend to be thought of - do a few youngsters get so collapsed by a misfortune that they're less inclined to win seven days after the fact?


They've played 91 games after misfortunes and have just won 9 of them. Assuming you indiscriminately blurred Kansas on the cash line after all of their misfortunes returning decade, you'd have won over 90% of the time.

The undeniable reaction here is - all things considered, definitely, any time that racks up 91 misfortunes in 10 seasons is presumably a protected blur. I utilized an awful group, and that is perhaps an awful model.


A firmly more grounded program than Kansas. They went 51-74 over the decade somewhere in the range of 2011 and 2021, dominating two bowl matches and acquiring a public positioning as high as #18. They additionally played frightfully after misfortunes, winning only 30% of the time. Blurring Rutgers after a misfortune throughout the course of recent years would have been an altogether productive system.

I think the fantasy that all school football crews perform better in the wake of losing - adequate to cover the spread as well as to win by and large on the cash line - is busted. Notwithstanding, it seems like mid-level schools in strong meetings might lose regularly sufficient two times in succession to give an agreeable overall revenue to NCAA football bettors.

Legend #3. Power 5 Conference Game Lines are Tighter

This fantasy fights that Vegas' best NCAA football lines are in the Power 5 gatherings - the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, and Pac-12. The thought is that the majority of the move in school football makes put in groups in these five gatherings, and that you can assemble a beneficial system avoiding any game including any group from a Power 5 meeting.

How about we go directly to the numbers to explore.

We should take an arbitrary non-P5 gathering and contrast its success misfortune rate ATS with that of one of the P5 meetings.

Starting around 2011:

The American Athletic Conference (AAC) has had 14 part schools. Throughout that time, 6 of the meeting's 14 schools have beat the spread reliably to the point of delivering a benefit, or pretty much 50% of the gathering. Contrast that with the 14-group SEC - just three SEC groups have beat the spread reliably to the point of being beneficial.

Assuming that you take a gander at the 16-group ACC (a Power 5 gathering), the numbers are considerably more tight. Only three ACC groups have reliably beat the spread throughout recent years, under a fourth of the gathering's cosmetics.

Kindly NOTE:

Since the SEC schools beat the books about half as frequently as AAC schools, and since the ACC lines are perhaps more tight than the SEC, it seems a piece like the Vegas lines aren't as great for games including lesser-known or less famous groups in more modest meetings.

Fantasy #4. Home-Field Advantage is a Big Deal in College Football

There's nothing more glamorized or mythologized in school football as the home-field advantage. Some arenas are known for being "threatening," and guarantees about the size, commotion, and different variables associated with specific fields are very common. See every one of the anecdotes about Texas A&M's Kyle Field "moving" because of the immense group for the game moving as one.

Does home-handle advantage have a major effect in school football?

We know that 56 NCAA groups have beat the spread more than the 52.4% needed to equal the initial investment as street longshots. That is a gigantic number - 44% of the association. It is apparently less than ideal that an association in which home-field advantage matters so much would create so many beneficial street dark horses.

The best groups at home ATS in school football throughout the most recent ten years incorporate some crackpot names - Buffalo, Liberty, UAB, Arkansas State, and Georgia Southern. What do these groups share for all intents and purpose? They're in little business sectors, they don't draw a great deal of consideration, and they're (generally) youthful and developing projects with an unruly fanbase and something to demonstrate.

What those groups don't have is a few broadly threatening home-game climate that frightens the socks away the other group and impacts execution against the spread.


Ok Yes Kyle Field, the immense moving behemoth that turns into Texas' 40th-biggest city on game days? A&M is 32-36 ATS at home beginning around 2011, a 47.1%-win rate that will not bring in anyone any cash. Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Florida, evidently one of the most intense and rowdiest games conditions on the planet, has just driven the Gators to a 29-33-3 record ATS at home, a 46.8%-win rate that wouldn't take more time to deplete your bankroll.

There's not by and large a negative relationship to playing at home. All in all, no group in school football performs more regrettable at home. The most terrible presentation against the spread at home throughout the most recent ten years has been Akron, going 20-38 ATS at home starting around 2011, covering only 34.5% of the time. That is a terrible record, yet it doesn't imply that the Zips play more regrettable in the wake of eating home cooking. It could show that they're exaggerated at home.

Legend #5. Try not to Bet on Snow Games

Whole books have been expounded on the effect of climate on sports. I won't assume the fantasy of the effect weather conditions can have on the game. It's not my subject matter.

I'll say this, however - I don't think snow is any genuine motivation to try not to put down a bet. I think school football match-ups played in snow are however possibly beneficial as they seem to be enjoyable to watch.

It's reasonable to even an easygoing football fan that snow is certifiably not a weather pattern that is especially destructive to football. Take a gander at the 2015 Sun Bowl game among Miami and Washington State.


The Cougars were utilized to cold playing conditions, more so than the Dolphins. Miami plays in a city where the normal low temperature doesn't get underneath the 60s. Washington St. practice consistently in sub-freezing conditions.

However the Cougars dominated the match, it was significantly nearer than you'd expect, particularly assuming snow immensely affected the result of a game.

I don't know there's any strong pattern to benefit from including snow games, yet I in all actuality do figure you ought to have a solid sense of reassurance putting down wagers on an intermittent frigid NCAA football challenge.

Legend #6. PPP is an Underrated Statistic

PPP is an abbreviation for Points Per Play, an as far as anyone knows enchanted measurement that permits you to save time while crippling. The thought is that you ought to generally back the group with the higher PPP figure, particularly assuming the hole between the two is huge.

One issue I have with involving PPP as a one-size-fits-all detail for school football incapacitating - the absolute best groups in term of PPP are unremarkable entertainers regarding certifiable play.